{"id":521339,"date":"2026-07-11T19:48:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T19:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/521339\/"},"modified":"2026-07-11T19:48:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T19:48:09","slug":"poll-of-polls-coalition-slump-continues-but-labours-path-to-power-lies-with-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/521339\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll of polls: Coalition slump continues, but Labour\u2019s path to power lies with Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"

The disruptor is Opportunity. The model reckons there is a 39% chance of Opportunity crossing the 5% threshold and entering Parliament. <\/p>\n

This means other governing formulations can be looked at. A Labour, Green, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori, Opportunity combination has a 22.7% chance of having the numbers to form a government.<\/p>\n

A National, NZ First, Act, Opportunity combination has an 88.7% chance of forming a government. <\/p>\n

The rise of Opportunity unlocks other combinations, too. A Labour, Green and Opportunity combination has a 9% chance of having the numbers to form a government. <\/p>\n

A National, Act, Opportunity combination has just a 0.8% chance of getting over the line. <\/p>\n

The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls<\/a> uses data from public polls and other private or less frequent polls and inputs them into a computer model using polling data going back to 2014.<\/p>\n

It uses this data to run 4000 election simulations, which are used to form probabilities of various election outcomes.<\/p>\n

The model reckons Labour is likely to be polling at 30.9%, just ahead of National on 29.8%. The gap between the two major parties continues to narrow mainly thanks to Labour\u2019s continued slump in support. <\/p>\n

The model has NZ First on 13.8%, the Greens on 10.6%, Act on 7% and Opportunity on 4.7%.<\/p>\n

Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori is on 2.2% but will likely win an electorate seat to stay in the race. <\/p>\n

Translated into seats in Parliament, this would give Labour 39 seats, National 38 seats, NZ First 18 seats, the Greens 13 seats, Act 9 seats and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori 3 seats. <\/p>\n

Opportunity would fail to cross the 5% threshold, wasting its vote unless it wins a seat. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The disruptor is Opportunity. The model reckons there is a 39% chance of Opportunity crossing the 5% threshold…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":474346,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[258392,258393,74,682,3013,7230,13982,7123,97110,6097,5903,71,247238,13419,27699,685,9093,70033,1432,203265,111,43,139,69,1118,6452,31472,13027,3430,10112,28057,56522,1518,12971,5348,57909,8603,2044,61,102],"class_list":["post-521339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-258392","tag-258393","tag-after","tag-being","tag-but","tag-coalition","tag-continues","tag-current","tag-dipped","tag-down","tag-election","tag-from","tag-heraldmotu","tag-june","tag-labours","tag-last","tag-lies","tag-likelihood","tag-model","tag-nationalled","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-of","tag-opportunity","tag-path","tag-poll","tag-polls","tag-power","tag-probability","tag-reelected","tag-research","tag-returned","tag-showing","tag-slightly","tag-slump","tag-time","tag-to","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=521339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521339\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/474346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=521339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=521339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=521339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}