On the positive side, the survey did show \u201cexpected own activity\u201d rose four points to net 43%, its highest level in five months.<\/p>\n
Firms\u2019 past own activity lifted four points to +5 while past employment lifted one point to -11.<\/p>\n
Zollner said that the own-activity indicators were generally lower in the late-month (post-GDP) sample.<\/p>\n
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner at ANZ Tower Albert Street. Photo \/ Corey Fleming<\/p>\n
Inflation indicators were marginally higher in September.<\/p>\n
The net per cent of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months rose three points to 46% while those expecting cost increases rose one point to 75%.<\/p>\n
One-year-ahead inflation expectations lifted marginally from 2.63% to 2.71%.<\/p>\n
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon described the result as: \u201cslightly stronger on balance\u201d compared to August. <\/p>\n
\u201cFirms\u2019 optimism about the year ahead remains elevated compared to current conditions, and even the small number of responses that were received after the June quarter GDP shocker were relatively positive,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBNZ\u2019s pivot in August to signalling further rate cuts will have been fully captured for the first time in this month\u2019s survey.\u201d<\/p>\n
Every three months ANZ asks firms to rank their largest problems.<\/p>\n
Non-wage costs grew in importance as a problem, in September while interest rates reduced.<\/p>\n
Overall, though the disinflationary issues of competition and low turnover still dominated the inflationary problems of high wages and other costs, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
Cashflow\/debtors and access to finance ranked as low problems, which was an encouraging sign for the eventual recovery once confidence returned, she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s been a rough few years. To some extent, that was inevitable after the extreme overheating of the Covid era, but the weakness has dragged on longer than expected, and the costs are mounting,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s important to acknowledge that there have also been benefits. New Zealand\u2019s external balances have improved enormously as we\u2019ve started living within our means again, which sets us up well for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n
Inflation had also dropped sharply and the extreme damage done to housing affordability (in terms of house prices relative to incomes in the last boom) had been fully unwound.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut now we\u2019ve taken our medicine, firms would like to see things return to growth mode,\u201c Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe good news is that the RBNZ is now seeing things that way as well, and is set to backstop the growth outlook with a lower Official Cash Rate (OCR).<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile there\u2019s uncertainty about the exact path of the OCR over coming weeks and months, the upshot is it will get to wherever it needs to be to ensure that the recovery we are all forecasting happens.\u201d<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On the positive side, the survey did show \u201cexpected own activity\u201d rose four points to net 43%, its…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":52381,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3017,12465,9442,26862,138,8278,2950,44933,13245,12410,700,111,139,69,17695,44931,8037,44932,23554,8822,61,30237,102],"class_list":["post-52380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-ahead","tag-anz","tag-better","tag-blow","tag-business","tag-conditions","tag-confidence","tag-dealt","tag-expecting","tag-gdp","tag-latest","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-outlook","tag-secondquarter","tag-september","tag-shocker","tag-showed","tag-survey","tag-to","tag-unchanged","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52380\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}