Henry will inevitably come a cropper<\/p>\n
At some point, Henry<\/a> will come a cropper because he pushes boundaries and has lapses in judgment. But he is not beyond recognising those moments, making amends and moving on. It need not be fatal.<\/p>\n If the coalition is re-elected and Henry is made a minister, his popularity will be tested.<\/p>\n If he doesn\u2019t get too bored with it all, he has the qualities to become an effective politician. <\/p>\n There is no particular pattern of success or failure for big names who come into Parliament<\/a>.<\/p>\n Don Brash was probably the biggest shock when he announced in 2002 he was resigning as Reserve Bank Governor to stand for National. He became party leader 18 months later and took the party to within a whisker of beating Helen Clark. He lasted five years as an MP. It is debatable whether that is success or failure.<\/p>\n Sue Bradford was one of the country\u2019s most famous activists when she stood for the Greens in 1999. When she left 10 years later, she was one of the most popular MPs across the aisles for her ability to work with others.<\/p>\n Shane Jones was a big name in fisheries before he entered politics in 2005 for Labour.<\/p>\n The Prime Minister himself, Christopher Luxon, was by far National\u2019s biggest new name at the 2020 election as the former head of Air New Zealand, and became leader within a year. Ultimately, the judgment of whether he has been a success or failure will rest on the November 7 election, if not before.<\/p>\n Bearing in mind National\u2019s position in the polls<\/a>, and whether Henry could shift the dial, I wrote a piece yesterday on whether it was time for National to panic<\/a>.<\/p>\n Seymour speech on \u2018dumb\u2019 phones<\/p>\n David Seymour has had a big week. He was acting Prime Minister while Luxon was on holiday in Hawaii and had a couple of big moves as Act leader. As well as the Henry announcement<\/a>, he gave a considered speech on Wednesday night on teenagers and social media to the Graeme Dingle Foundation business leaders\u2019 dinner.<\/p>\n In it, he picked up an idea by commentator Ani O\u2019Brien to ban teens under 16 from having smartphones, instead of trying to ban social media. They could have \u201cdumb\u201d phones, however, that would allow them to keep in touch with friends and family. Education Minister Erica Stanford is trying to work up policy similar to Australia\u2019s banning social media for under-16s, but has struck trouble. Act opposes it and plenty of questions have arisen about how effective it has been<\/a>.<\/p>\n In another move related to advances in technology, New Zealand politicians and officials are likely to be taking note of a major speech yesterday by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the future of artificial intelligence (AI). He is proposing a suite of new laws next year to regulate the rollout of AI<\/a>, with particular reference to power-guzzling data centres and to copyright laws.<\/p>\n The embarrassing part of Modi\u2019s visit<\/p>\n The visit to New Zealand by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last weekend was successful, but only to a point. The trouble with deifying political leaders such as Modi is that his own advisers fail to speak truth to power.<\/p>\n Modi embarrassed his host, Luxon, by repeatedly misrepresenting what the free trade agreement (FTA) says on investment.<\/p>\n Assuming that Modi would not want to embarrass his host, we can only assume that none of his accompanying officials briefed him beforehand on the domestic sensitivity of the issue or corrected him when he got it wrong.<\/p>\n Modi continued to talk about New Zealand\u2019s \u201ccommitment\u201d to invest $US20 billion over 15 years. The New Zealand Government has repeatedly said the text talks about a commitment to \u201cpromote\u201d. New Zealand is correct.<\/p>\n This is what the text says (my emphasis): \u201cNew Zealand shall promote foreign direct investment from investors of New Zealand into India with the aim to increase such investment by US$20 billion within 15 years of the date of entry into force of this agreement.”<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, FTA critics have seized upon Modi\u2019s comments<\/a> to try to discredit it. It added a sour note to an otherwise successful visit. Officials, please do your job.<\/p>\n By the way<\/p>\n No rest for McClay:\u00a0While many MPs are on holiday this week, Trade Minister Todd McClay has been preparing to host more than 100 ministers and delegates of the grouping dubbed the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership. It is a group of 16 small and medium economies reliant on trade: Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Costa Rica, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Rwanda, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay. Others invited are South Korea, Peru, Thailand, Fiji and Samoa.More politics as entertainment:\u00a0The Clacton byelection in the UK is providing much entertainment. Reform leader Nigel Farage decided to resign as MP for Clacton and stand again on the pretext that his constituents should decide whether he deserved to be punished for failing to disclose donations. Because most major parties are boycotting it as a stunt, attention has focused on the satirical candidate Count Binface, who wears a dustbin on his head. Incoming British Prime Minister Andy Burnham (who recently beat the Count in Makerfield) has thrown his weight behind Binface. \u201cCount Binface, you are carrying the hopes of the nation,\u201d he quipped.Oops: Our emailed version of Inside Politics last week said the Official Cash Rate had gone up by 0.25 basis points, when it should have been 25 basis points. Quote unquote<\/p>\n \u201cThe big game-changer for [Paul Henry] will be accountability. Once they vote for you, once they pay for you, they own you and, boy, they let you know it.\u201d \u2013 Newstalk ZB\u2019s Mike Hosking.<\/p>\n Micro quiz<\/p>\n National has selected one candidate standing in a M\u0101ori electorate seat. Who is she and what is the seat? (Answer at the bottom of this article.)<\/p>\n Brickbat<\/p>\n Goes to New Zealand First Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson, who announced a visit to India this week<\/a> to promote New Zealand wool without a single mention of the benefits of the FTA for New Zealand wool exporters \u2013 not a mutter, not a murmur, not a syllable, not a sound. How churlish.<\/p>\n Bouquet<\/p>\n Goes to Act leader David Seymour for snaffling Henry. What a coup.<\/p>\n This week\u2019s top stories<\/p>\n Henry candidacy: Paul Henry revealed as new Act candidate \u2013 expected to be given \u2018electable position\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n Opinion \u2013 Henry candidacy: Is it time for National to panic? \u2013 Audrey Young<\/a><\/p>\n Opinion \u2013 Henry candidacy: Paul Henry delivers political masterclass, but will it last? \u2013 Thomas Coughlan<\/a><\/p>\n Security alliance: Labour \u2018broadly supportive\u2019 of Ocean of Peace alliance<\/a><\/p>\n China tensions: China makes veiled threat after NZ marks South China Sea ruling\u2019s anniversary<\/a> <\/p>\n India-NZ FTA: \u2018You\u2019re a clown\u2019: Former PM blasts opponents of India trade deal<\/a><\/p>\n India-NZ FTA: Act MP pokes fun at NZ First minister\u2019s \u2018taxpayer-funded\u2019 India visit<\/a><\/p>\n Poll of Polls: Opportunity on cusp of 5% as coalition decline continues<\/a><\/p>\n Raukawa candidacy: National\u2019s new M\u0101ori candidate sidesteps stance on Govt\u2019s M\u0101ori policies<\/a><\/p>\n Supermarket rules: David Seymour reveals new rules for supermarket investment<\/a> <\/p>\nCount Binface, candidate for the British constituency of Clacton. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n
Act leader David Seymour. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n