its lowest level<\/a> of support since Christopher Luxon became leader.<\/p>\nNew Zealand First and ACT picked up 11.5 percent and 7.8 percent respectively, while Opportunity was knocking on Parliament’s door with 4.7 percent – just shy of the five percent threshold.<\/p>\n
Labour had the largest share of the vote with 34 percent, while the Greens were on 10.3 percent, and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori collected 2.3 percent.<\/p>\n
But new data taking a deeper look at the electorate’s voting considerations shows how easily a party’s share of the vote could change as scrutiny of policies intensifies in the lead-up to the election.<\/p>\n
The RNZ-Reid Research poll asked respondents not only which party they would vote for today, but which other parties they might seriously consider voting for in the upcoming election.<\/p>\n
Of the 1000 respondents, 54.4 percent indicated they would seriously consider voting for more than one party.<\/p>\n
When respondents were asked their party vote if an election was held today, they were also asked if that was the only party they would consider voting for.<\/p>\n
Those responses generated a floor for each political party in terms of its committed vote at this point in the election cycle – Labour 15.7, National 12.8, Greens 4.1, New Zealand First 4, Act 2.7, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori 1.2, and Opportunity 1.2 percent.<\/p>\n
Respondents were then asked which other parties they might seriously consider voting for.<\/p>\n
The poll then combined the totals (recalculated over 100 percent) of those respondents who might seriously consider voting for another party in the upcoming election with those who have locked-in a preference<\/p>\n
Broken down by party, Labour received 28.7, National 24.3, New Zealand First 13.8, Greens 13.1, Act 10.5, Opportunity 6, and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori 3.6 percent.<\/p>\n
Taking respondents’ serious considerations into account gave a greater share of the vote to all of the parties except Labour and National, which received a -5.3 and -4.4 percentage point difference compared to its original party polling if an election was held today.<\/p>\n
Most strikingly it bumped Opportunity over the five percent threshold and put it in a true kingmaker position as the party capable of deciding the next government.<\/p>\n
On these numbers, without Opportunity support the centre-right bloc would only have 48.6 percent of the vote and the centre-left bloc 45.4 percent, which is not enough to form a government.<\/p>\n
The major parties are increasingly needing to rely on minor parties to form a government as the combined Labour-National vote shrinks – a trend being seen in politics globally.<\/p>\n
In this latest poll, the combined major party vote was 62.7 percent – down from 66.4 percent in March and 66.9 in January.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"More than half of those surveyed in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll could be persuaded to vote for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":529556,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-529555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=529555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/529556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=529555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=529555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=529555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}