Henry is the super candidate in an election campaign already stacked with recognisable names. Taine Randall. Michael Laws. Stuart Nash.<\/p>\n
What we\u2019re about to discover is whether a super candidate can single-handedly lift a party\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n
Act has been flatlining in the polls lately, partly because it\u2019s conceded its shake-up-Wellington territory to New Zealand First. It hasn\u2019t announced any headlining policies lately.<\/p>\n
If there is a sudden lift in polling, it may be down to Henry. If he pops up in the preferred Prime Minister polling, then it\u2019s even more likely.<\/p>\n
Obviously, Henry is not without risk for Act. But if you\u2019re fixated on the (strong) chance that he says something offensive, you\u2019re worried about the wrong thing.<\/p>\n
Voters expect him to say something outrageous. He\u2019s been doing it for decades. When he does \u2013 not if \u2013 it will probably go down like a Donald Trump controversy.<\/p>\n
Paul Henry is a new candidate for the Act Party. Photo \/ Sylvie Whinray <\/p>\n
Henry\u2019s supporters will ignore it because he\u2019s a bit naughty. He won\u2019t lose their support. His critics will blow up because they had a gutsful years ago. He never had their support so it doesn\u2019t matter. If anything, opponents blowing up will help him because it will give him what he\u2019s joined Act for: media attention.<\/p>\n
Henry\u2019s greatest risk is actually that he gets bored and bails out. He\u2019s got form here. He walked away from a TV career that was still on the rise because he didn\u2019t want to spend all his remaining summers working.<\/p>\n
He doesn\u2019t need the money. He\u2019s incredibly wealthy.<\/p>\n
Which means he also doesn\u2019t have to stick it out in politics if he can\u2019t be bothered anymore. If the workload is greater than he expects. If Wellington is as dull for him as I suspect it will be, if the hand-wringing, lanyard-wearing officials are as punishing as everyone finds them, if negotiating with the career politicians in NZ First and National gets boring, if jealousy within Act is a problem, he might just walk away<\/p>\n
Because you know what\u2019s better than a lonely apartment in a grey city an hour\u2019s flight away from home? A mansion in Remuera. A holiday home in Palm Springs. A vacation in Hawaii. Literally, Henry\u2019s actual life is better.<\/p>\n
Which may be why he couldn\u2019t quite decide if he\u2019ll be giving Parliament three years or six years.<\/p>\n
If Henry leaves at the earlier mark \u2013 or maybe even earlier than that \u2013 it will leave a lot of very disappointed Act and centre-right voters who are frothing right now for what Henry\u2019s entry into politics means.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re right to be as excited as they are. The media will be hyper focused on Act\u2019s new showman and all the entertainment he will bring from now to election day.<\/p>\n
But centre-right voters have to remember, Henry\u2019s appeal is that he is not a career politician. He says things career politicians don\u2019t. He will create excitement career politicians don\u2019t.<\/p>\n
But it also means that at some point he will go back to his politics-free life again. My suspicion is it may be sooner than his party or his voters will want.<\/p>\n