{"id":534480,"date":"2026-07-20T02:38:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T02:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/534480\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T02:38:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T02:38:21","slug":"i-cant-stop-buying-alphabet-because-the-ai-talent-narrative-is-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/534480\/","title":{"rendered":"I Can\u2019t Stop Buying Alphabet Because The AI Talent Narrative is Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>        Quick Read            <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">GOOGL&#8217;s Cloud backlog nearly doubled to $460B and Q1 EPS of $5.11 crushed the $2.63 estimate, undercutting the AI brain drain narrative.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Alphabet&#8217;s 63% cloud growth and 350 million paid subscribers give it structural advantages over Microsoft&#8217;s mature cloud and Meta&#8217;s ad-only model.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Warren Buffett initiated Berkshire&#8217;s Alphabet stake and expressed regret for not buying sooner, but $175B in 2026 CapEx with FCF already down 47% is the primary risk.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks \u2014 and Google didn&#8217;t make the cut. <a href=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/lp\/top-10-ai-stocks\/GOOGL\/?i=67b85765-fc56-4879-a098-15d90d51dd8e&amp;p=aded526a-f78d-426a-9c96-82c54af7e0ab&amp;pos=keypoints&amp;tpid=1626472&amp;l=b17ce983-5361-4dba-a2fd-2469b8705237&amp;c=3af9b05b-bac6-4a46-815a-254223a80206&amp;utm_source=yahoo&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=feed&amp;utm_content=feed||1626472\" data-ylk=\"slk:Grab%20the%20names%20FREE%20today;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Grab the names FREE today&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Grab the names FREE today<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">I keep hitting the buy button on Alphabet (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/GOOGL\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:NASDAQ%3AGOOGL;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;NASDAQ:GOOGL&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NASDAQ:GOOGL<\/a>) because the loudest bearish story attached to it, the idea that Google is bleeding AI talent to Anthropic and OpenAI, does not match anything I see in the numbers or the org chart. It is the cleanest gap between narrative and reality I have found in my portfolio, and I am using it.  <\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/5C34AB269E5DACA56FECB275B387D9A85F4D8D926EE00085171D86D4BBFBB51C\/subgraphmysterio\/resizefit_w960;quality_80;format_webp\/https:%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2F24_7_wall_st__718%2F39bbcac1fa1e23f4863b9b4a571547d0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"A bronze bull figurine stands on the left, looking upwards and to the right. To its right, a tall stack of silver coins is positioned. On the far right, a silver bear figurine stands, looking towards the left. All figures are set against a plain white background.\" height=\"599\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-lglytj loader\"\/><\/a> Vladimir Endovitskiy \/ Shutterstock.com           The Thesis Behind Every Add          <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">My conviction rests on two structural facts the brain drain story ignores. First, the merger of Google Brain and DeepMind under Demis Hassabis created the densest concentration of world-class AI PhDs on the planet, operating as one coordinated scientific unit rather than warring internal teams. Second, Google has finalized multi-billion-dollar retention packages that match startup equity while giving researchers access to internal TPU clusters that startups physically cannot replicate. If you want to train a frontier model without hitting a compute wall, Google is the destination. A handful of high-profile departures does not change that math.  <\/p>\n<p>            The Receipts          <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The financial evidence backs the org chart. Q1 2026 revenue landed at $109.90 billion, up 21.8% year over year, with EPS of $5.11 against a $2.63 estimate. That was the fourth consecutive EPS beat.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks \u2014 and Google didn&#8217;t make the cut. <a href=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/lp\/top-10-ai-stocks\/GOOGL\/?i=67b85765-fc56-4879-a098-15d90d51dd8e&amp;p=92103f51-044f-4669-8ba5-a79fcf7642bd&amp;pos=mid_content&amp;tpid=1626472&amp;l=b17ce983-5361-4dba-a2fd-2469b8705237&amp;c=3af9b05b-bac6-4a46-815a-254223a80206&amp;utm_source=yahoo&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=feed&amp;utm_content=feed||1626472\" data-ylk=\"slk:Grab%20the%20names%20FREE%20today;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Grab the names FREE today&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Grab the names FREE today<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Google Cloud grew 63% year over year to $20.03 billion, and the backlog nearly doubled quarter over quarter to over $460 billion. Gemini is processing 16 billion tokens per minute via direct API, up 60% from the prior quarter. Companies losing their best researchers do not ship product at that velocity. Sundar Pichai put it plainly on the Q1 call: &#8220;The fact that we own frontier models and own the silicon really helps us stay ahead of the curve.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The dividend, initiated in 2024, was raised 5% to $0.22 per share in April. The direction of travel matters for a long-term holder, even if the yield is modest today.  <\/p>\n<p>            Why Not the Obvious Alternatives         <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Microsoft (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/MSFT\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:NASDAQ%3AMSFT;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;NASDAQ:MSFT&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NASDAQ:MSFT<\/a>) is the reflexive AI pick, and I own some. I keep adding to Alphabet instead because Google Cloud grew 63% against a mature AWS at Amazon (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/AMZN\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:NASDAQ%3AAMZN;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;NASDAQ:AMZN&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NASDAQ:AMZN<\/a>), and Alphabet also owns the Search and YouTube advertising engine that generated $77.25 billion in Google advertising revenue in Q1 2026. Meta (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/META\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:NASDAQ%3AMETA;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;NASDAQ:META&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NASDAQ:META<\/a>) is a cleaner ad play, but it lacks the cloud, the subscription base of 350 million paid users, and Waymo, which surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous rides per week. At a P\/E of 28, I am not paying a premium for that optionality.  <\/p>\n<p>       The Risk I Actually Respect         <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Capital expenditure. 2026 CapEx guidance sits at $175 to $185 billion, up from $91.45 billion in 2025. Free cash flow already fell to $10.12 billion in Q1 2026, down 46.63% year over year. If the ROI on that spend disappoints, the story gets ugly. What holds my thesis together is the demand signal underneath it: a $460 billion backlog and cloud operating income that tripled year over year to $6.6 billion. Capacity is booked before it is built.  <\/p>\n<p>          Why the Buy Button Stays Active         <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Warren Buffett confirmed he initiated Berkshire&#8217;s Alphabet stake and expressed regret for not investing sooner. I understand the sentiment. As long as Alphabet owns the models, the silicon, the researchers, and the distribution, I keep buying, and the brain drain headlines keep making my cost basis better.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks \u2014 and Google didn&#8217;t make the cut. <a href=\"https:\/\/247wallst.com\/lp\/top-10-ai-stocks\/GOOGL\/?i=67b85765-fc56-4879-a098-15d90d51dd8e&amp;p=ea93966a-680e-4e83-abfa-2ea9e7c81711&amp;pos=end_of_article&amp;tpid=1626472&amp;c=3af9b05b-bac6-4a46-815a-254223a80206&amp;l=b17ce983-5361-4dba-a2fd-2469b8705237&amp;utm_source=yahoo&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=feed&amp;utm_content=feed||1626472\" data-ylk=\"slk:Grab%20the%20names%20FREE%20today;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Grab the names FREE today&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Grab the names FREE today<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Contact <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/technology\/ai\/articles\/mailto:editorial@247wallst.com?subject=Feedback%3A%20I%20Can%E2%80%99t%20Stop%20Buying%20Alphabet%20Because%20The%20AI%20Talent%20Narrative%20is%20Wrong&amp;body=Please%20share%20your%20feedback%20here%3A%0D%0A%0D%0A---%0D%0A%0D%0ARegarding%20this%20article%3A%20https%3A%2F%2F247wallst.com%2Finvesting%2F2026%2F07%2F19%2Fi-cant-stop-buying-alphabet-because-the-ai-talent-narrative-is-wrong%2F\" data-ylk=\"slk:editorial%40247wallst.com;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;editorial@247wallst.com&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">editorial@247wallst.com<\/a> for any questions or corrections.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Quick Read GOOGL&#8217;s Cloud backlog nearly doubled to $460B and Q1 EPS of $5.11 crushed the $2.63 estimate,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":534481,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[365,1796,363,364,85322,367,48621,13070,111,139,69,145,173715,7342],"class_list":["post-534480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-alphabet","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-brain-drain","tag-google","tag-google-brain","tag-google-cloud","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-technology","tag-top-10-ai-stocks","tag-warren-buffett"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=534480"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534480\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/534481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=534480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=534480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=534480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}