The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index<\/a> came in slightly below trend, but enough to suggest the US economic expansion was still in place in June. But if the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracking<\/a> is to be believed, that expansion is at a modest level. Consensus forecasts are being trimmed too.<\/p>\n The US Treasury 10 year TIPS yield<\/a> of inflation-protected bonds jumped<\/a> about +30 bps today and back to the highs we last saw in the pandemic and prior to that in the GFC.<\/p>\n Canadian retail sales expanded in June<\/a>, extending their positive track to six consecutive months. This was for both value and volume terms, to be +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Canadian CPI<\/a> is running at 2.8%.<\/p>\n Across the Pacific, China’s foreign direct investment rose<\/a> +US$11.1 bln in June, better than expected and better than the -US$7.6 bln fall in the same month in 2025.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, China’s consumer trade-in subsidy program is losing momentum as appliance and car demand weakens.<\/p>\n South Korea said<\/a> its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result.<\/p>\n Singapore’s June CP<\/a>I came in at +1.9% in June and although that was its highest since August 2024 it was less than the 2% expected. And that was because there was no change from May.<\/p>\n In India, we should keep an eye on youth protests, because they are spreading and gaining surprisingly wide support.<\/p>\n In Europe and as expected by many, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged<\/a> at its July meeting overnight, following the +25 bp hike in June. Since then, policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach as softer inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have reduced the urgency for another move. But that may have changed today with the unexpectedly large spike in oil prices. But who knows how fast that may change again? Markets anticipate another ECB rate hike in September.<\/p>\n Staying in the EU, consumer sentiment improved<\/a> in July. That is to say it got less negative.<\/p>\n And in a decision likely to intensify trans-Atlantic trade tensions, European Union regulators overnight hit Google<\/a> with a \u20ac890 mln fine for illegally undercutting competition through its dominance in search. Google will not be hurt by this directly in the short term because it reported<\/a> almost +US$41 bln in profits in Q2-2026 alone. If it is hurt, it will be from their heavy cash burn for its AI buildout.<\/p>\n The Australian labour market grew<\/a> surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month. This strength will add spine to the RBA’s fight against rising inflation (4.0%<\/a>) because they will be now less worried about a weak economy. The RBA next meets on August 11, 2026 – 17 days away.<\/p>\n Global container freight rates<\/a> fell -4% last week to be +74% higher than year ago levels. Outbound rates from China were the basis of the pullback from the prior week. Bulk cargo rates were down -8% for the week, and these are now a third higher than year-ago levels.<\/p>\n The UST 10yr yield<\/a> is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since January 2025. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +34 bps (down -1 bp). The UST 30 year bond is back to levels last seen in 2006. Their 1-5 curve is now at +32 bps (up +2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +95 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.77%, up +3 bps and a new 30 year high. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.08%, up +9 bps from yesterday and back to GFC levels in 2011. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.75%, up +2 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n Wall Street is -1.4% lower today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -2.5%. Overnight, European markets were lower between Paris and Frankfurt’s -1.6% and London’s -0.7%. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.5%. Hong Kong was up +1.3% but Shanghai was only up +0.3%. Singapore ended down -0.2% however. The ASX200 was up +0.2%. And the NZX50 matched that, also ending up +0.2%.<\/p>\n The price of gold<\/a> has fallen to US$4042\/oz, down -US$98 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$57.50\/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday.<\/p>\n Oil prices are another +US$6 higher from yesterday at just on US$93\/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$101.50\/bbl and up +US$7. Hormuz transits<\/a> are still just a trickle There have been no crude tankers and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down.<\/p>\n The Kiwi dollar is another -40 bps lower from yesterday at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -40 bps from this time yesterday.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,762 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +\/-7%.<\/p>\n Select chart tabs<\/p>\n US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n
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