With just over a fortnight until the deadline, the question is no longer whether all regions will meet it, but whether ministers will impose their own solutions on the regions that don\u2019t, writes Henry Oliver in today\u2019s excerpt from The Bulletin.<\/p>\n
To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday,\u00a0sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n When ministers Simon Watts and Chris Bishop gave every non-Auckland council three months to develop amalgamation plans or face an imposed government model, they set off a scramble that the local government sector \u2013 not known for its speed \u2013 has found deeply stressful. As the 9 August deadline looms, The Spinoff\u2019s Joel MacManus has graded the national progress<\/a>, finding that while some regions are earning gold stars for playing nicely, others are in \u201cabsolute shambles\u201d, with warring councils hitting impasses or simply too far behind on their homework.<\/p>\n The picture is one of reluctant siblings being ordered to get along, with the government learning that amalgamation is not as simple as it seems. MacManus rates Hawke\u2019s Bay and Northland as \u201con track\u201d \u2013 each with three councils agreeing to single-council plans and lone holdouts (Kaipara and Wairoa) not expected to be major hurdles. Bay of Plenty\u2019s three councils unanimously voted to pursue amalgamation, though reluctantly, with one councillor calling the process \u201cblackmail\u201d.<\/p>\n Regions \u201cat risk of failing\u201d include Wellington, where Upper Hutt remains sceptical and the Wairarapa may go its own way; Christchurch, with five competing options and Selwyn reluctant to take on city debt; and Hamilton, where a grab-bag of Waikato proposals includes the delightfully named \u2018Megatron\u2019 option.\u00a0<\/p>\n The \u201cabsolute shambles\u201d category covers Nelson-Tasman, Southland and Taranaki (all suffering town-versus-country divides), the Horizons area (whose councils don\u2019t plan to submit anything at all), and Otago \u2013 deemed the most shambolic \u2013 where Dunedin, Clutha and Queenstown-Lakes cannot see eye-to-eye.<\/p>\n Wellington\u2019s fracturing and the backstop threat<\/p>\n In the capital, a leaked email from Wellington mayor Andrew Little to his councillors \u2013 obtained by The Post\u2019s Justin Wong<\/a> \u2013 reveals Upper Hutt is \u201cunlikely to agree\u201d to join a proposed metro authority with Wellington City, Lower Hutt and Porirua. Upper Hutt mayor Peri Zee reportedly told the Mayoral Forum that inclusion against her council\u2019s wishes would \u201camount to co-opting them against their will\u201d, and has arranged for an amendment writing Upper Hutt out of any proposal. Little\u2019s email also noted Horowhenua will not participate and the three Wairarapa councils are likely to form their own unitary authority.<\/p>\n The financial stakes are significant: MartinJenkins analysis projects a metro authority would cost $269m to establish but deliver $930m in efficiencies over 25 years \u2013 a net saving of around $159.80 per property per year. Councillor Andrea Compton asked whether Upper Hutt pulling out would risk the Government invoking the \u201cbackstop\u201d \u2013 the provision allowing ministers to impose a structure themselves. Little said a fragmented proposal inconsistent with the government\u2019s planning legislation \u201cdoes pose a challenge\u201d, implying that government intervention could follow regardless of local preferences.<\/p>\n Going it alone: Wairoa and Ashburton dig in<\/p>\n Wellington is not alone in facing holdouts. In Hawke\u2019s Bay, the\u00a0Herald\u2019s Gary Hamilton-Irvine<\/a>\u00a0reported that Wairoa District Council has resolved not to participate in regional amalgamation at all, opting instead to investigate becoming a standalone unitary authority. While Napier, Hastings and Central Hawke\u2019s Bay back a single Hawke\u2019s Bay-wide council, Wairoa mayor Craig Little said efficiencies would flow to the centres, not to the edges: \u201cWhere we are\u2026 we will suffer.\u201d Councillor Jeremy Harker added: \u201cThere is a real fear of the people of Wairoa that if we become part of a single unitary council, we will lose our voice.\u201d<\/p>\n