{"id":545400,"date":"2026-07-26T23:46:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T23:46:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/545400\/"},"modified":"2026-07-26T23:46:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T23:46:22","slug":"economic-week-ahead-july-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/545400\/","title":{"rendered":"ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story:\u00a0The price of\u00a0Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen’s Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (chart). President Trump said the US would hold Iran responsible for any further attacks on shipping, threatening “major military punishment” against Tehran. Big Tech’s earnings kickoff was depressing. Both Alphabet and Tesla fell sharply after reporting negative free cash flow.<\/p>\n

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Looking ahead, the calendar is jam-packed this week with lots of earnings reports. The monetary policy committees of the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will be meeting. Four more Magnificent-7 companies are set to report. Q2 GDP and June PCED inflation readings\u00a0both\u00a0are\u00a0due Thursday.<\/p>\n

Here are the key economic releases most likely to shape investors\u2019 thinking this week:<\/p>\n

(1) Fed Policy\u00a0&\u00a0Global Central Banks.\u00a0The FOMC’s two-day meeting concludes Wednesday with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to follow. The federal funds rate futures market is signaling two rate hikes over the next 6-12 months (chart).\u00a0The June meeting\u2019s Summary of\u00a0Economic Projections\u00a0showed nine of 19 officials penciling in a hike this year. This split raises the\u00a0degree of\u00a0dissention we might see at the July meeting\u00a0whether the committee votes to hike or to hold.<\/p>\n

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The Bank of England (Thu) and the Bank of Japan (Fri)\u00a0both\u00a0are\u00a0expected to hold their respective policy rates steady (chart).<\/p>\n

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(2) Earnings.\u00a0Four Magnificient-7 companies report earnings this week: Microsoft and Meta report after the close on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Collectively, the four companies account for about 17% of the S&P 500\u2019s market capitalization.<\/p>\n

The consensus of analysts\u2019 estimates now implies\u00a0aggregate\u00a0Q2-2026 operating EPS growth\u00a0for S&P 500 companies\u00a0of 35.8% y\/y, up from 22.9% a week earlier (chart).\u00a0But 35.8%\u00a0is a misleading figure due to\u00a0the distortive effects of\u00a0mark-to-market investment gains in\u00a0some\u00a0Mag-7\u00a0companies.<\/p>\n

Given how the market punished Alphabet and Tesla for reporting negative free cash flow, all eyes are on this week’s Mag-7 reporters.<\/p>\n

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(3) GDP\u00a0&\u00a0PCED Inflation.\u00a0The advance estimate of Q2 GDP (Thu) follows a final Q1 reading of 2.1% annualized growth. The Atlanta Fed’s\u00a0GDPNow<\/a>\u00a0model had Q2 tracking at just 1.7% as of July 17, with its next update due Monday (chart). We expect the preliminary estimate to come in closer to\u00a02.0%. Business investment continues to lead. Final sales to private domestic purchasers should be strong.<\/p>\n

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June’s PCED (Thu) follows May’s hot readings of 4.1% y\/y headline and 3.4% core, the highest since 2023 (chart). The Cleveland Fed’s\u00a0Inflation Nowcasting<\/a>\u00a0model projects June’s comparable rates easing to 3.65% and 3.33% y\/y, with headline PCED falling 0.12% m\/m. This week’s Houthi attacks and Brent’s move back above $100\u00a0a barrel\u00a0threaten\u00a0the recent disinflation trend.<\/p>\n

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(4) Employment.\u00a0The next initial claims report (Thu), covering the week ended July 25, follows last week’s 187,000 print, the lowest since 1969.\u00a0That represented a four-week average of 207,500 (chart). Layoffs remain low.<\/p>\n

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\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":522449,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-545400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545400"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545400\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/522449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}