\u201cBusinesses don\u2019t want to lose good staff,\u201d Liam Dann said.<\/p>\n
There has been this idea of, \u201cdon\u2019t hire, don\u2019t fire\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n
Businesses have been holding on in hope of a turnaround.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnfortunately, with a second shock, a third shock, or fourth or fifth shock \u2013 like the latest escalation in the war and oil prices going up again \u2013 businesses that have been holding on might now be looking at things and going, \u2018No, we actually have to do some serious cost saving.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
The labour market is traditionally a lagging economic indicator; it tends to turn at the end of an economic cycle, precisely because both cutting jobs and expanding the workforce are such big calls for businesses to make.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of people would\u2019ve hoped we would\u2019ve seen a peak this year,\u201d Tamsyn Parker said.<\/p>\n
But BNZ \u201c[is] picking the unemployment rate to keep heading upwards… into next year, with no sign of it coming down\u201d.<\/p>\n
BNZ is forecasting the unemployment rate for the June quarter will land at 5.4% when it is released next Wednesday.<\/p>\n
But it sees it rising further from there to peak at 5.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and stay there for some time.<\/p>\n
ANZ economists are picking 5.5% unemployment for the second-quarter release.<\/p>\n
The headline unemployment rate is masking much higher rates of youth unemployment \u2013 now around 20% \u2013 and underemployment, with many part-time workers and contractors not getting the hours they need to survive.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, there are wide regional disparities with unemployment running below 4% in Otago, but above 6% in Auckland and Wellington.<\/p>\n
Bay of Plenty had the highest unemployment rate in the March quarter at 7.1%.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re in the South Island looking for a job, it looks like you\u2019re much more in luck than Auckland, or the Bay of Plenty region,\u201d Parker said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s being hammered at the moment on the jobs front.\u201d<\/p>\n
Parker noted that job creation has not kept pace with job losses.<\/p>\n
She noted that despite talks of public spending cuts, recent data showed that the public sector was still the area contributing the most newly filled jobs.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo, public administration, education, and health,\u201d she said. \u201cIf you\u2019re a teacher or a nurse, it looks like you\u2019ve got a better chance of getting a job.\u201d<\/p>\n
This week The Economy of Everything also takes a look at the inflationary impact of resurgent fuel prices and how that might flow to interest rates.<\/p>\n
Parker and Dann also discuss the woes of the hospitality industry and look at ideas to give it a boost.<\/p>\n
Listen to the full episode for the complete conversation.<\/p>\n
The Economy of Everything is available on the iHeart app or wherever you get your podcasts.<\/p>\n
The series is hosted by Liam Dann, business editor-at-large and Tamsyn Parker, business editor for the NZ Herald. Thanks to CMC Markets.<\/p>\n
Listen to the full episode<\/a> for the complete conversation.<\/p>\n