{"id":550539,"date":"2026-07-30T02:38:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T02:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/550539\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T02:38:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T02:38:16","slug":"business-confidence-rebounds-as-firms-hope-for-lower-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/550539\/","title":{"rendered":"Business confidence rebounds as firms hope for lower inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u201cThe general theme of this month\u2019s data is more optimism, with both business confidence and expected own activity at historically solid levels,\u201d ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.<\/p>\n
In terms of past activity, manufacturing was highest (though it dipped), while agriculture saw a marked fall and is back in the pack after years of outperformance. Construction lifted and is almost back in the black.<\/p>\n
Taking the month as a whole, inflation indicators were slightly lower and margin pressure reduced.<\/p>\n
But with oil prices extremely volatile, it was very much a case of wait and see, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
She noted that in responses received later in the month, activity indicators were lower and inflation indicators higher.<\/p>\n
\u201cOil prices turned north and the RBNZ [Reserve Bank] hiked the OCR [Official Cash Rate] between the early and late responses,\u201d Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt feels like we need a weekly business confidence survey at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOil prices continue to leap and plummet as the headlines roll in. The key question for the economic outlook is: how will people respond?\u201d<\/p>\n
What remained to be seen was whether businesses adapted to the longer-term volatility and confidence levels detached from fluctuations in the headlines, Zollner said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny thought that calm \u2018normality\u2019 will soon make a comeback is likely fading fast,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWill businesses decide to just get on with their required investments and hiring? Will households get on with their normal lives? Or will the uncertainty see many batten down the hatches and go into survival mode?\u201d<\/p>\n
Only time would tell, but the consequences could be long-lasting, she warned.<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n