The number of New Zealanders either out of work or wanting more work are up. Way up, writes Henry Oliver in today\u2019s excerpt from The Bulletin. But who? Where? And what will it mean for the election?<\/p>\n
To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday,\u00a0sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Unemployment rose to 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest rate in nearly 11 years, according to Stats NZ figures\u00a0reported by 1News<\/a>\u00a0(and helpfully explained on\u00a0yesterday\u2019s episode of Now You Know<\/a>). Seasonally adjusted, that\u2019s 171,000 people out of work, up from 164,000 in the March quarter and worse than the 5.4\u20135.5% economists had forecast.<\/p>\n The broader underutilisation rate, which includes people wanting more hours or work but not actively searching, climbed to 13.8%, its highest since 2013, with 440,000 people wanting more work. Long-term unemployment is also growing: about 8000 more people have been out of work for over a year than in the same quarter last year. The unadjusted rate (so not seasonal) was far higher for Pasifika (11.6%) and M\u0101ori (10.8%) than for New Zealand Europeans (4.2%).<\/p>\n The closer you look, the worse it gets<\/p>\n The picture looks no better on closer inspection,\u00a0Bernard Hickey told The Spinoff\u2019s Toby Manhire yesterday<\/a>. Annual wage inflation sits at 2%, losing ground to 4.1% price inflation, and retail wages haven\u2019t grown at all in real terms over the year. Underutilisation was especially severe for younger people \u2013 37% for 15- to 24-year-olds \u2013 and for M\u0101ori, at 22.8%.<\/p>\n Hickey pointed to a deeper structural problem underlying the numbers: New Zealand\u2019s economy, he argued, \u201cdoesn\u2019t know how to operate without house prices rising,\u201d with around two-thirds of households owning homes that have now been falling in value for four years straight, compounding the effect of flat wages and job losses on how poor people feel. He also pointed out that, in New Zealand, \u201cno government has been reelected with falling real house prices and falling real wages\u201d.<\/p>\n Hickey was skeptical of the government\u2019s framing that a recovery is already under way, noting the Reserve Bank\u2019s post-June rate hike had already dented the more forward-looking measures of business confidence, and that Treasury and the Reserve Bank had wrongly forecast an employment rebound for four consecutive quarters.<\/p>\n If you look region-to-region, it gets patchy<\/p>\n The national figure also masks some sharp regional divergence. The North Island\u2019s rate climbed to 6% while the South Island sat at 3.7%, with Auckland at 6.5% and Wellington at 4.9%. Canterbury reversed the national trend, with its unemployment rate falling to 3.6% \u2013 its lowest in more than two years \u2013 as\u00a0reported this morning by The Press\u2019s Sinead Gill and Blayne Slabbert<\/a>.<\/p>\n Economist Brad Olsen said the South Island economy that was \u201cmore than holding its own,\u201d with Canterbury job advertisements up 18% over the year, well above the 7% national rise. But that recovery is uneven even within the region: manufacturing, IT and construction advertisements grew strongly while hospitality and education ads fell, meaning the 14,800 Cantabrians still unemployed aren\u2019t necessarily positioned to take the jobs on offer.<\/p>\n Two hats, one election<\/p>\n The political reaction split along predictable lines, but with an unusual wrinkle: Nicola Willis issued two separate statements, one as finance minister and another as National\u2019s campaign finance spokesperson,\u00a0as reported by RNZ\u2019s Giles Dexter<\/a>. As minister, she called the quarter \u201ctough\u201d and pointed to government measures \u2013 Investment Boost, fast-tracked construction, tourism and international education support \u2013 as the path back to growth. As party spokesperson, she accused Labour of being unable to credibly prioritise jobs while opposing the very policies she said were driving job creation, and warned that new taxes proposed by Labour, the Greens, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and Opportunity would threaten the recovery of consumer confidence.<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds called the figures \u201ca damning verdict\u201d on Luxon\u2019s economic management, pointing to public sector cuts and cancelled infrastructure projects, while Green co-leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick said the numbers showed a government that had broken the economy rather than grown it. With the next labour market release due just three days before the election \u2013 and with an economist\u00a0telling RNZ not to expect any improvement until 2027<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 unemployment is likely to remain one of the campaign\u2019s hottest topics right until polling day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The number of New Zealanders either out of work or wanting more work are up. 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