withdrew from the list as it was unveiled<\/a> because he said the party had placed him so low it was clear he wouldn\u2019t become a minister. <\/p>\n![\"National]()
National leader Christopher Luxon announces his party list, alongside deputy leader Nicola Willis and party president Sylvia Wood at the Rydges Hotel at Wellington Airport. Photo \/ Adam Pearse.<\/p>\n
As of writing, there has been no such reaction to National\u2019s list for the 2026 election.<\/p>\n
Chris Bishop, the senior MP who was rumoured to be behind the previous destabilisation of Luxon\u2019s leadership (he\u2019s denied this), retained his third spot despite some speculation he could be knocked down a few pegs as punishment. <\/p>\n
There were no dramatic demotions or MPs sidelined. When you look at the movements in the list rankings, it\u2019s all a bit ho-hum, but you don\u2019t know what individual MPs are thinking about their own circumstances.<\/p>\n
For the most part, the ranking of names produced by National\u2019s ranking committee, which includes Luxon, deputy Nicola Willis, president Sylvia Wood, and a bevy of party representatives, reflects the party\u2019s current set-up. <\/p>\n
The top eight is identical to National\u2019s current rankings. Gerry Brownlee is slotted in at No 9, unsurprisingly given he\u2019s the sitting Speaker and his status within the party \u2013 a \u201cgreat kaumatua\u201d, according to Luxon. <\/p>\n
The next rank of significance is at 16, where Nancy Lu, a loyal National foot soldier who is running list-only, is found. <\/p>\n
She\u2019s well-remarked upon by the party\u2019s senior MPs and given she couldn\u2019t find a seat to run in, was always expected to receive a relatively high position.<\/p>\n
![\"Prime]()
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and National MP Nancy Lu, who has been ranked at No 16 on the party’s list. Photo \/ Alyse Wright<\/p>\n
It is in the mid-20s on the list where you start finding those not already in Parliament.<\/p>\n
Businessman Dale Stephens, entrepreneur Mahesh Muralidhar, former Federated Farmers president Katie Milne, and family law barrister Angee Nicholas, who came within an inch of entering Parliament in 2023. <\/p>\n
They were among the fresh talent promoted by Luxon as part of what he said was a strong balance between new voices and those with proven experience. <\/p>\n
The party did have to defend the list\u2019s gender and ethnicity make-up. Seven of the top 25 are women, while there are no M\u0101ori or Pasifika in the top 10. <\/p>\n
Talking about diversity in the party, Luxon and Willis pointed to some names further down the rankings they believed to be in winnable seats, but in some cases that requires a hefty dose of optimism. <\/p>\n
While Emma Chatterton is in the true-blue seat of Papakura, several of those mentioned are standing in marginal seats or electorates National hasn\u2019t fared well in before, such as Tracey Summerfield in Wigram or Nicholas in Henderson (which replaces the Te Atat\u016b seat). <\/p>\n
Winnable, potentially. Safe, definitely not. <\/p>\n
But National\u2019s core problem is that it is unlikely to win as many seats in Parliament as it did in 2023. It\u2019s polling nowhere near where it was when it took power, and that means, bluntly, a sizeable number of MPs are about to lose their jobs. <\/p>\n
It means the number of list positions candidates can use to enter Parliament is likely to be limited, making the argument that there is new talent or diverse voices down the list all the more redundant. National would be lucky to see its bench of top MPs returned based on current polls. <\/p>\n
![\"Christopher]()
Christopher Luxon has faced leadership speculation all year. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell<\/p>\n
So who is at risk? That\u2019s a question that can depend on the particular quirks and nuances of individual electorate races. <\/p>\n
If the party wins more electorates than expected, it will receive fewer list positions and those who may need the list could be in danger. There are a couple of seats it could pick up if things go to plan, such as T\u0101maki and Auckland Central. <\/p>\n
But Willis, Bishop (who will likely lose Hutt South), Paul Goldsmith, Brownlee and Lu will all be hoping the party isn\u2019t too successful in gaining seats. That could put a roadblock on their path back to power.<\/p>\n
It is inevitable National\u2019s lower polling will be reflected somewhat on the electorate level. Parties that lose overall support do generally lose electorates. <\/p>\n
Those standing MPs with the smallest holds on their seats include Vanessa Weenink in Banks Peninsula, Dana Kirkpatrick in East Coast, Greg Fleming in Maungakiekie, Carlos Cheung in Mount Roskill, and Mike Butterick in Wairarapa. <\/p>\n
Putting aside Butterick, who is a minister and ranked 21 on the list, none of those MPs appear in the top 30. Unless they beat the odds and win their electorate, they are likely out of the House. <\/p>\n
Others who will be watching the polls closely include Ryan Hamilton in Hamilton East, Tama Potaka in Hamilton West, David MacLeod in New Plymouth, Grant McCallum in Northland, Tim Costley in K\u0101piti, and Carl Bates in Whanganui. <\/p>\n
These are all seats National lost in 2020 (K\u0101piti mostly replaces \u014ctaki). Again, other than Potaka, a minister, none have much of a chance of being able to return on the list unless things change in the polls for National. <\/p>\n
With less than three months to go until November 7, that is significant pressure on a large group of MPs fighting for their political lives. <\/p>\n
Power comes with numbers in politics.<\/p>\n
If the confidence vote on Luxon in April was as close as some MPs are telling the Herald \u2013 possibly in the vicinity of 27-22 \u2013 then just a few MPs changing sides in the hopes of new leadership giving the party a boost could lead to Luxon finding himself being de-ranked altogether.<\/p>\n
Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald\u2019s chief political reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The risk that an MP unhappy with their position may go rogue was underlined by a throwaway comment…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":563016,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2246,74,1975,5903,3278,10005,11556,17318,3556,111,43,139,69,1118,4762,12860,7192,56638,223,165],"class_list":["post-563015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-2246","tag-after","tag-at","tag-election","tag-facts","tag-list","tag-losing","tag-mps","tag-national","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-of","tag-party","tag-revealed","tag-risk","tag-seats","tag-the","tag-their"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/563015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=563015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/563015\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/563016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=563015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=563015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=563015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}