{"id":564078,"date":"2026-08-09T21:08:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T21:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/564078\/"},"modified":"2026-08-09T21:08:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T21:08:11","slug":"nationals-debt-reduction-target-lacks-ambition-economist-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/564078\/","title":{"rendered":"National&#8217;s debt reduction target lacks ambition &#8211; economist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">National&#8217;s debt reduction target is the least ambitious it could possibly be, says a leading economist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">If it is returned to power after November&#8217;s election, National will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/politics\/945455\/national-promises-budget-responsibility-rules-if-elected\" class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">introduce three &#8220;budget responsibility rules&#8221;<\/a>: returning to surplus in 2028\/29, reducing debt below 40 percent of GDP and lowering government spending towards 30 percent of GDP over time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Leader Christopher Luxon said if the government&#8217;s books were not in order, the country was vulnerable to economic shocks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">He criticised Labour during Sunday&#8217;s announcement, blaming the former government for racking up debt as it tackled the Covid-19 pandemic, and eroding a buffer that was necessary for dealing with the next major shock.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen said National&#8217;s focus on fiscal discipline was encouraging, but it was simply committing to continuing the coalition&#8217;s current fiscal strategy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;The focus from the National Party of trying to get debt &#8230; down to below 40 percent is probably the least ambitious they could have possibly been,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Previously, we&#8217;ve heard the National Party talk a lot more about trying to get debt back to 20 percent of GDP, and so [it&#8217;s a] step in the right direction and necessary step, but not nearly as far, or as, I guess, expansive of a policy or position that they could have taken, and have taken before.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Olsen said the aim to lowering government spending to 30 percent of GDP was about right.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/4L3XDBH_B_Olsen_3_jpg.jpeg\"  alt=\"Brad Olsen\" width=\"614\" height=\"384\" class=\"ml:max-h-[50rem] max-w-full aspect-[16\/10] object-cover\"  decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" fetchpriority=\"auto\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-foreground-secondary flex-shrink-0 ml-4\">RNZ \/ Samuel Rillstone<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">He questioned what National might cut, given it had effectively ruled out new taxes, limiting its revenue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;That only leaves the ability to limit expenses and tone down government spending as the options available,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Olsen said New Zealand&#8217;s debt was lower than a number of comparable countries, but it needed to be, given it was a small island nation with fewer taxpayers, was reliant on trading partners and carried a greater risk of natural disasters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;We always want to have that lower level of debt capacity, so that we&#8217;ve got the space to respond to the next pandemic, the next natural disaster, whatever it might be.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Spending to support the country through the pandemic worked initially, but it went on too long and had been difficult to unwind, Olsen said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Labour&#8217;s finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said her party did what was necessary to buffer the economic shock.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">She said National&#8217;s rules would simply continue the government&#8217;s current fiscal strategy, which was failing New Zealanders.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">Edmonds pointed to unemployment reaching an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/business\/892951\/unemployment-rises-to-11-year-high-of-5-point-6-percent\" class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">11-year high<\/a> and a surge in the number of people <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rnz.co.nz\/news\/personal-finance\/809664\/more-kiwisavers-seek-hardship-withdrawals-to-make-ends-meet\" class=\"underline-brand-hover visited:text-foreground-secondary hover:visited:text-foreground-primary\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">making KiwiSaver withdrawals due to financial hardship<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">ACT Party leader David Seymour said National could only achieve its budget goals with his party&#8217;s help.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">He claimed victory over cutting costs on a number of initiatives this term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;Without ACT, the taxpayer would be on the hook for billions more, but even more savings are needed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"[&amp;_em]:font-serif-text-italic [&amp;_cite]:font-serif-text-italic\">&#8220;To make these budget goals real will require ACT at the Cabinet table.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"National&#8217;s debt reduction target is the least ambitious it could possibly be, says a leading economist. If it&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":492558,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-564078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564078\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/492558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}