{"id":566337,"date":"2026-08-12T03:08:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T03:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/566337\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T03:08:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T03:08:10","slug":"global-ratings-agency-sp-lifts-outlook-for-nz-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/566337\/","title":{"rendered":"Global ratings agency S&P lifts outlook for NZ economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\u201cHigh frequency indicators point to improving domestic demand, and rising consumer and investor confidence,\u201d S&P Global head of macroeconomic modelling Vincent R Conti said in his report.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn particular, growth in business investment has been much better than we initially thought and is carrying growing momentum into the second half of this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
S&P Global is keeping its 2028 and 2029 New Zealand growth forecasts at 2.4%.<\/p>\n
Higher growth momentum would also lead to slightly lower unemployment rate forecasts, Conti said.<\/p>\n
S&P Global now sees the unemployment rate at 5.2% by the end of 2026. It was 5.6% in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
It forecasts it to fall to 4.9% next year and to 4.5% in 2028.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, it forecasts inflation to fall back into the Reserve Bank\u2019s comfort zone (1-3%) \u2013 down to 2.4% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur inflation forecast bumps up only slightly. But we would note that our new growth forecasts represent a reversion to potential from a period of under-capacity economic growth,\u201d Conti said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs such, our overall view on inflation and policy rates are unchanged.\u201d<\/p>\n
S&P Global sees the Official Cash rate peaking at 3% in the current cycle (it is currently 2.5%) and staying steady there for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
All of that bodes well for those hoping New Zealand\u2019s fragile recovery will take hold and gather momentum.<\/p>\n
But S&P Global highlights some key risks to its forecasts.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite these revisions, we continue to see some growth risks,\u201d Conti said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEnergy market uncertainty will still pose risks to real disposable incomes. The property market remains relatively weak, and net immigration has slowed down.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe believe these issues will eventually moderate the strong bounce we are seeing in business investment.<\/p>\n
S&P Global Ratings is one of the world\u2019s leading providers of independent credit ratings.<\/p>\n
In October last year, it affirmed New Zealand\u2019s AA+ rating.<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cHigh frequency indicators point to improving domestic demand, and rising consumer and investor confidence,\u201d S&P Global head of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112705,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[74,3041,138,219,5903,2082,71,1437,168818,1019,22055,25619,5969,111,139,175466,69,17695,10465,1518,7420,208692,42699,30947,1361,248202,1533,80],"class_list":["post-566337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-after","tag-agency","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-election","tag-for","tag-from","tag-global","tag-inherit","tag-international","tag-leads","tag-lifts","tag-much","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-novembers","tag-nz","tag-outlook","tag-ratings","tag-research","tag-sp","tag-sampp","tag-stronger","tag-suggests","tag-that","tag-whoever","tag-will","tag-zealand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=566337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566337\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=566337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=566337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=566337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}