National Party leader gains the numbers in a confidence vote four months after the previous one. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n
Carried out from August 8 to 11, the poll put Labour on 30%, down two points from June, with National steady on 29%. The Greens fell one point to 12%, while ACT rose three points to 9%. Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori dropped one point to 1%.<\/p>\n
Exclusive: 1News Verian poll reveals crucial changes in party support – Watch on TVNZ+<\/a><\/p>\n On these numbers, Qiulae Wong’s Opportunity would enter Parliament for the first time with nine seats \u2014 a first in a 1News Verian poll. The party has contested elections since 2017 but has never crossed the threshold or won an electorate seat.<\/p>\n Newcomer rises to 8% to bring it neck-and-neck with New Zealand First. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n NZ First’s three-point fall to 8% coincided with a drop in support for its leader Winston Peters as preferred prime minister \u2013 he was also down three points, to 7%.<\/p>\n It follows a stunning period for Peters, who was criticised by the Prime Minister for what Luxon called “racist” remarks<\/a> that attracted an international and diplomatic outcry.<\/p>\n In late July, Peters told Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country”<\/a> during a parliamentary debate, prompting condemnation from political opponents<\/a> and National figures, and a diplomatic protest from China<\/a>. <\/p>\n Former Labour minister Stuart Nash also resigned as an NZ First election candidate<\/a> in July following controversy over comments widely considered to be sexist.<\/p>\n Other parties are scathing of the \u201cdamaging\u201d and \u201ccircus\u201d antics from the governing party. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n The polling window for this month’s 1News Verian poll was shortened to enable earlier publication. <\/p>\n The poll’s sample of 847 voters carries a maximum margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points, slightly wider than June’s 3.1 due to a slightly smaller sample size.<\/p>\n Opportunity centre-stage in possible coalition blocs<\/p>\n Today’s poll, translated into seats, gives Labour 38, National 36, the Greens 15, ACT 11, NZ First 10 and Opportunity nine, with the remaining six going to the other M\u0101ori electorate incumbents, who the 1News Verian poll assumes will hold them for seat calculations.<\/p>\n Party vote results for August’s 1News Verian poll. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Those six seats are assumed under the poll’s methodology as both Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi’s Te Tai Tokerau Party polled below the 5% threshold, meaning their places in the 125-seat Parliament depends on retaining their electorates.<\/p>\n Neither traditionally assumed blocs would command a majority in the 125-seat Parliament on those seat numbers. <\/p>\n Labour, the Greens, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and two other M\u0101ori electorate MPs combined would reach 59 seats, short of the 63 required, while National, ACT and NZ First would sit on 57.<\/p>\n A Labour-Green-Opportunity arrangement would reach 62 seats, just short, while adding Opportunity to the National-ACT-NZ First grouping would produce 66.<\/p>\n However, both blocs’ options have narrowed over the past month.<\/p>\n Electorate seats are assumed to be held by their incumbents. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Luxon appeared to rule out National working with Opportunity<\/a> over tax policy \u2014 a call Hipkins said showed he had been “caught on the hoof” making at a press conference.<\/p>\n Meanwhile the Labour leader said earlier this week that his own party would not work with NZ First<\/a> in any government he led. <\/p>\n Those positions would leave Labour needing Opportunity, the Greens and at least one other partner to govern, and National without a viable path on these numbers.<\/p>\n Preferred prime minister<\/p>\n![\"Party](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/party-vote-results-for-augusts-1news-verian-poll-BZUVTWAWEBHNHLHVVDX4GSEXWI.png\")
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