TD Securities strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to show a reversal of May\u2019s strength in professional services, offsetting solid retail sales and leaving the Index of Services flat, with modest industrial weakness keeping monthly GDP at 0.0% m\/m. Despite muted June, they see Q2 GDP at a firm 0.4% q\/q but warn this apparent strength may be artificial, implying flat GDP in the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n
Q2 growth firm but questioned<\/p>\n
“We expect June to reverse some of May\u2019s outsized strength in professional services, offsetting solid retail sales and leaving Index of Services flat (mkt: 0.0%; prior: 0.3%).”<\/p>\n
“Together with modest weakness in industrial production, this should keep GDP at 0.0% m\/m (mkt: -0.1%; prior: 0.1%).”<\/p>\n
“Despite the muted June, however, Q2 growth is still on track for a firm 0.4% q\/q (mkt: 0.4%, BoE: 0.3%), ending the first half of the year on a note of strength.”<\/p>\n
“We do believe this strength could be artificial though, suggesting a potential flat-lining of GDP<\/a> growth in the second half of 2026.”<\/p>\n