{"id":567213,"date":"2026-08-12T23:48:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T23:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/567213\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T23:48:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T23:48:09","slug":"the-risks-and-what-is-being-done-to-prepare-for-a-strong-el-nino-this-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/567213\/","title":{"rendered":"The risks and what is being done to prepare for a strong El Ni\u00f1o this summer"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cWhen you\u2019ve got wind, that really pushes any fires along but also further enhances, I guess, that dryness of those fuels and availability of fuels to burn.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mitchell told the Herald that 98% of wildfires in New Zealand were started by people. <\/p>\n

\"BecauseBecause of New Zealand\u2019s position, it means most areas, particularly the east and northeast, become drier while the southwest of the South Island is wetter. Photo \/ Christine Cornege<\/p>\n

It is possible to have minimal fires during high-risk conditions but people must take the necessary precautions, he said.<\/p>\n

People are \u201cstrongly encouraged\u201d to clear their properties of vegetation, make sure fires are properly extinguished with water and always check the fire risk. <\/p>\n

\u201cDon\u2019t leave those fires to smoulder for days after the main burn as you perhaps have always done. <\/p>\n

\u201cYou might have got away with it last few seasons; you may not get away with it, or you\u2019re unlikely to get away with it this season.\u201d<\/p>\n

People should also make sure their properties are accessible by fire truck, make water supplies accessible and have a plan in case a fire happens. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a potential that we may have to evacuate more people this season.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said preparation is important because \u201conce the smoke\u2019s in the air it\u2019s too late\u201d.<\/p>\n

Crews have been checking equipment and have increased foam and retardant stocks by 20,000 litres to carry 120,000 litres to brace for the possibility of more fires. <\/p>\n

Fire and Emergency has also been in contact with the Department of Conservation, Forestry and the Defence Force on how they could co-ordinate their efforts.<\/p>\n

The National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) hosted a forum last week where agencies discussed what they were expecting and how they would deal with the upcoming phenomenon.<\/p>\n

The strongest in recorded history<\/p>\n

ESNZ is expecting this El Ni\u00f1o, first declared in July, to be the \u201cstrongest in recorded history\u201d, Brandolino said.<\/p>\n

Although it has around 25% influence on the weather in New Zealand, its impacts can be significant. <\/p>\n

It is caused when warmer-than-normal water temperatures slow down trade winds in the eastern Pacific that would typically carry moisture to New Zealand and Australia. <\/p>\n

Because of New Zealand\u2019s position, it means most areas, particularly the east and northeast, become drier while the southwest of the South Island is wetter.<\/p>\n

No human alive has seen an El Ni\u00f1o event this strong. In fact, it\u2019s possible that no human in history has seen an event this strong. <\/p>\n

Forecasts continue to project a 3.5-4.0\u00b0C \u2018Super El Nino\u2019. <\/p>\n

Temperatures in the east Pacific are now widely 5\u00b0C above average, peaking at 6\u00b0C. pic.twitter.com\/voKRoioBXT<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Met4Cast – UK Weather (@Met4CastUK) August 12, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Temperatures could also vary, occasionally spiking \u201cunusually high\u201d for a few days at a time, Brandolino said. <\/p>\n

Parts of the country could also reach 30C earlier in the spring, and some places could reach high temperatures not felt in \u201cseveral years\u201d, he said. <\/p>\n

A \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d, which this is likely to be, lasts longer and increases the odds for outcomes such as high temperatures, floods, heat, humidity and fires. <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o typically comes around every 10-15 years, while New Zealand has had five Super El El Ni\u00f1os since the early 1970s.<\/p>\n

Agriculture impact <\/p>\n

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) is encouraging farmers and growers to have a plan, national response manager Andrew Curtis said. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s important farmers make decisions early, including identifying feed deficits and assessing the potential for summer feed crops. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt could also mean prioritising livestock for destocking early and feeding the remainder as well as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o can bring increased risk of drought and water scarcity, wildfires, heat-related human and animal health concerns, as well as flooding, he said.<\/p>\n

The ministry is working with sector groups to support farmers and growers to prepare, Curtis said. <\/p>\n

Resources through levy organisations, talking to experts who have been through El Ni\u00f1o before, and information on the MPI website are tools farms and growers can use, he said.<\/p>\n