But within minutes, the lights would be gone after a weather bomb forced the yacht to suddenly keel over 90 degrees to starboard (right-hand side). It was a capsize from which there was no return.<\/p>\n
Almost immediately, tonnes of water gushed inside, trapping guests in their cabins below and setting off a frantic rescue effort, co-ordinated by the yacht\u2019s New Zealand skipper, James Cutfield, 53, with the help of crew and other survivors, including a London-based Kiwi lawyer, Ayla Ronald, 38, and her partner Matthew Fletcher, 43.<\/p>\n
Kiwi lawyer Ayla Ronald was on the stricken luxury yacht Bayesian when it sank off the coast of Sicily.<\/p>\n
From the time Cutfield, the skipper, was woken by a deckhand at the height of the storm to the time the Bayesian capsized, just seven minutes passed. In the 15 seconds it took for the yacht to capsize, no one had time to find life jackets.<\/p>\n
Trapped in cabins below were the yacht\u2019s owner, UK tech tycoon Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, and four guests. Before dawn broke they would be entombed 50m below in the sunken yacht. The body of the seventh victim, the yacht\u2019s chef, Recaldo Thomas, 59, was found later that day floating near the wreck site.<\/p>\n
Mike Lynch with his daughter Hannah, who both died when the Bayesian capsized and sank.<\/p>\n
Two years later, the tragedy and mystery of the Bayesian won\u2019t release its hold.<\/p>\n
Three of the crew are under investigation by Italian authorities for multiple manslaughter and culpable shipwreck: Cutfield, from Auckland\u2019s North Shore; deckhand Matthew Griffiths, 24; and the ship\u2019s chief engineer, Tim Parker-Eaton, 58, both from the UK. <\/p>\n
No charges have been laid and may never be, depending on the outcome of ongoing investigations by both Italian authorities and the UK\u2019s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB).<\/p>\n
The Bayesian’s captain, New Zealander James Cutfield. <\/p>\n
Complicating matters is an $898 million civil claim filed in January this year by The Italian Sea Group (TISG) against the three crew members and the Bayesian\u2019s owner, Revtom Ltd, a company controlled by Lynch\u2019s widow, Angela Bacares. TISG owns Perini Navi, the Italian shipyard that built the Bayesian. <\/p>\n
As a result, a cone of silence surrounds the tragedy. Repeated attempts to contact the survivors and others connected to the Bayesian, including the yacht\u2019s renowned designer, Ron Holland, have been unsuccessful. A spokesman for the Lynch family declined to comment.<\/p>\n
Ayla Ronald\u2019s father, Lin Ronald, an experienced yachtie, said his daughter had spent hours sailing when she was young and was brought up on a boat. He told the Herald the Bayesian was not an easy subject for her to discuss and she was unlikely to speak about the tragedy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are all sorts of complications and complexities involved,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The Herald has pieced together the extraordinary survival story using the MAIB interim investigation report, examining the three-levelled layout of the yacht, and media reports from the time of its sinking.<\/p>\n
A celebratory cruise<\/p>\n
August 18, 2024, was the last night of a celebratory cruise along the Italian coastline to celebrate Lynch\u2019s acquittal on criminal charges relating to the $19 billion sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard (HP) in 2011.<\/p>\n
HP had accused Lynch and Autonomy\u2019s chief financial officer of inflating the firm\u2019s value before the takeover and sued for $7.6b in damages \u2013 a case that dragged on for nearly 13 years in the United States. <\/p>\n
Tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his daughter died when his 56m superyacht Bayesian capsized in a storm in August, 2024. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
On board the Bayesian were family, friends and members of Lynch\u2019s defence team from London law firm Clifford Chance, including Ronald, who grew up in Christchurch and gained her law degree at the University of Otago. <\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what happened in the early hours of August 19, based on the MAIB investigation report.<\/p>\n
3am<\/p>\n
Deckhand Matthew Griffiths is on night watch; the breeze is light, around 8 knots. The yacht\u2019s retractable keel, capable of extending to 10m under sail, is raised to 4m. In the distance, Griffiths can see flashes of lightning and thunderclouds.<\/p>\n
3.30am<\/p>\n
Ayla Ronald and Matthew Fletcher wake from the sound of the storm but stay in their cabin on the starboard side of the Bayesian.<\/p>\n
British deckhand Matthew Griffiths was on watch in the early hours of August 19, 2024, when a freak storm struck the Bayesian.<\/p>\n
3.55am<\/p>\n
Griffiths videos the approaching storm and posts on social media before shutting the yacht\u2019s hatches and saloon windows as rain squalls approach.<\/p>\n
3.57am<\/p>\n
The Bayesian\u2019s anchor starts to drag as the wind increases to 30 knots. The yacht starts to list to starboard.<\/p>\n
3.59am<\/p>\n
Griffiths runs below to wake Cutfield, telling him the storm is worsening and the anchor is dragging. Other crew members wake and come on deck, including the chief officer Tijs Koopmans, 36, who has sensed the change in the yacht\u2019s movement.<\/p>\n
The Bayesian’s chief officer, Tijs Koopmans.<\/p>\n
4am<\/p>\n
Woken by the storm, chief engineer Parker-Eaton heads to the engine control room, checking the generators are running before going upstairs to the wheelhouse to start the steering and hydraulic pumps controlling the propellers.<\/p>\n
Cutfield instructs Koopmans, his chief officer, to wake the rest of the crew in their forward cabins. Down below, chef Thomas is busy stowing cutlery and pans in the yacht\u2019s galley, and shouts \u201cGood morning\u201d to Koopmans and nearby crew as they pass. That will be the last time they see him alive.<\/p>\n
4.02am<\/p>\n
A CCTV camera on shore captures flashes of lightning, wind and torrential rain so strong the view from the camera lens is obliterated. One video shows the Bayesian\u2019s lit-up mast in the distance beginning to tip to the right.<\/p>\n
Angela Bacares leaves the owner\u2019s cabin and goes upstairs to the saloon and wheelhouse area to check on what\u2019s happening. Two other guests, Charlotte Golunski, 37, a partner in Lynch\u2019s venture capital firm Invoke Capital, and her partner, James Emsley, 38, are woken by the Bayesian\u2019s list. They leave their cabin and head upstairs to the saloon, carrying their 1-year-old daughter, Sofia.<\/p>\n
The crew are hurriedly securing loose items in the yacht and on deck. Upstairs on the yacht\u2019s flying bridge, the canvas canopy above Cutfield rips from end to end as the wind increases.<\/p>\n
Koopmans checks with the chief engineer in the wheelhouse that the Bayesian is ready to manoeuvre and shouts up to Cutfield on the flying bridge.<\/p>\n
\u2018We didn\u2019t see it coming\u2019<\/p>\n
4.06am<\/p>\n
The wind suddenly increases to 70 knots (130 km\/h) with even stronger gusts. The force on the Bayesian\u2019s huge mast, boom, rigging and furled sails is enough to make the superyacht violently capsize.<\/p>\n
From that moment on, everyone fights for their lives as seawater gushes down the staircases.<\/p>\n
Cutfield would later say, \u201cWe didn\u2019t see it coming.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the flying bridge, he and two crew members are thrown sideways and hit by flying items, injuring all three. In the saloon and wheelhouse below, James Emsley suffers a gash to his arm and Bacares, too, is injured, including deep cuts to her bare feet from broken glass.<\/p>\n
Deckhand Griffiths is hurled from the flying bridge into the sea. He later tells Italian news agency Ansa that after he got back on the yacht, he and the crew tried to rescue everyone they could.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were walking on the walls [of the yacht],\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Chief officer Koopmans finds Bacares in the saloon and pushes her up through cascading water to Cutfield on the flying bridge. He and Cutfield help Golunski, Emsley and baby Sofia out of the flooding saloon through the same route.<\/p>\n
The Bayesian’s flying bridge shielded by a canvas sun canopy which was torn to shreds when the storm hit. The saloon and driving station is on the layer below.<\/p>\n
Below, Ronald and Fletcher struggle to escape from their starboard cabin, the door of which is now on the ceiling. Drawers have come loose from a cabinet and crashed down. The couple use them to form a makeshift ladder, climbing up to the door, along the internal walls of the yacht\u2019s central alleyway and up stairs into the wheelhouse.<\/p>\n
Seeing Ronald and Fletcher in the wheelhouse below, Griffiths and another crew member climb down from the flying bridge to help them escape the rising water, lifting them up with the help of Koopmans, and Cutfield above.<\/p>\n
The saloon of the 56m superyacht the Bayesian.
The Bayesian’s saloon after the superyacht was salvaged in June 2025. Photo \/ Antonino Di Cristofalo<\/p>\n
With the Bayesian sinking and the wheelhouse filling with water, Griffiths and two crew members find themselves trapped in an air pocket by a jammed door on the port (left) side. Emsley, bleeding heavily from a gashed arm, helps open the door from the outside so they can escape.<\/p>\n
The force of the water sweeps Koopmans to the back of the flooded saloon, trapping him in an air pocket. He dives down and opens sliding doors at the rear, and swims clear of the sinking vessel.<\/p>\n
With the flying bridge soon to be underwater, Cutfield instructs those gathered to jump into the sea, telling them to swim clear of the mast and boom into the dark.<\/p>\n
In the chaos that follows, Golunski loses hold of baby Sofia for a couple of seconds in the rough seas before managing to grab hold of her again.<\/p>\n
British mother Charlotte Golunski held her 1-year-old daughter, Sofia, afloat in the sea after the Bayesian capsized.<\/p>\n
\u201cI held her afloat with all my strength, my arms stretched upwards to keep her from drowning. It was all dark … I screamed for help, but all I could hear around me was the screams of others,\u201d Golunski said at the time.<\/p>\n
4.22am<\/p>\n
Chief engineer Parker-Eaton is sitting on the Bayesian\u2019s hull, holding the EPIRB (emergency position indicating radio beacon), which he grabbed when the superyacht capsized. On hearing Cutfield\u2019s shouts, he swims towards the group of survivors. There are 15 left of the original 22 on board, struggling to stay afloat in the stormy sea.<\/p>\n
Tim Parker-Eaton, the Bayesian’s chief engineer.<\/p>\n
Some are treading water, others holding on to cushions to keep them afloat. Griffiths fashions a tourniquet for Emsley\u2019s gashed arm.<\/p>\n
Ronald and Fletcher help locate a floating cushion to support the baby and use the torch of an iPhone to search for other survivors in the darkness. There are none.<\/p>\n
Cutfield and a crew member swim back to the Bayesian and try unsuccessfully to release a liferaft from the rear of the yacht. Koopmans swims to the bow and manages to release a second liferaft, towing it back to the group.<\/p>\n
4.24am<\/p>\n
The liferaft is inflated, and the crew help the other survivors to cram inside. All are cold and shocked, some bleeding from injuries. In the distance, the bow of the Bayesian rises up and then disappears beneath the surface, taking those still trapped to the seabed 50m below.<\/p>\n
Members of the Italian coastguard retrieve the Bayesian’s liferaft in Porticello Harbour, Sicily. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
In the liferaft, the crew treat the injured while others search for flares. Cutfield and another crew member paddle the raft towards the 42m Sir Robert Baden Powell, the only other vessel anchored in the bay, shouting for help. Parker-Eaton used the liferaft\u2019s torch to try to signal cars and a hotel on the cliff above.<\/p>\n
The Baden Powell had also started to drag its anchor shortly before 4am, causing the ketch\u2019s skipper, Karsten B\u00f6rner, 73, to start the engine to avoid hitting the Bayesian anchored nearby. It took 11 minutes of manoeuvring before his vessel stopped dragging.<\/p>\n
Guests on board thought they saw a whale when a lightning strike lit up the sea. It was the hull of the sinking Bayesian.<\/p>\n
The sudden weather front, dubbed a \u201cblack swan\u201d event, passed as quickly as it had arrived. When B\u00f6rner looked back to where the lights of the Bayesian\u2019s mast and spreaders should be, they had gone. He assumed the superyacht had headed out to sea to escape the storm.<\/p>\n
The 42m ketch Sir Robert Baden Powell was anchored next to the Bayesian at Porticello, Sicily, during the storm. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
4.34am<\/p>\n
A red parachute flare is fired from the Bayesian\u2019s liferaft but goes unnoticed.<\/p>\n
4.43am<\/p>\n
A second flare is seen by B\u00f6rner\u2019s crew. They launch a boat and transport the 15 survivors to the Baden Powell. The crew bandage wounds and distribute blankets to the distressed survivors.<\/p>\n
4.53am<\/p>\n
The Baden Powell crew return several times with senior Bayesian crew, including Cutfield, to search in the darkness for anyone else who might have survived.<\/p>\n
At dawn the Italian Coastguard arrives to transfer the injured to waiting ambulances. A distraught Bacares, who needs treatment for her injuries, does not want to leave while her husband and daughter are still missing. <\/p>\n
An ambulance carries the fifth body to be retrieved from the Bayesian in the fishing village of Porticello. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
Dark and dangerous work<\/p>\n
It would take five days for a team of specialist divers to painstakingly retrieve the six bodies from the wreck of the Bayesian. The 50m depth meant divers could only work on the site for around 10 minutes. The yacht\u2019s narrow passageways and rooms \u2013 blocked by furniture, cushions and mattresses \u2013 made access difficult and dangerous.<\/p>\n
One by one, the bodies of Lynch, his friends Jonathan Bloomer, 70, chairman of Morgan Stanley International, and his wife Judy, 71; and Christopher Morvillo, 59, one of Lynch\u2019s lawyers at Clifford Chance, and his wife Neda, 57, were brought to the surface. Hannah was the last to be found.<\/p>\n
Hannah Lynch, 18, died in the Bayesian sinking off the coast of Sicily. <\/p>\n
Nearly a year later, the Bayesian would claim another victim after a 39-year-old Dutch diver died while cutting the yacht\u2019s boom away during the salvage operation in May 2025.<\/p>\n
The following month, the wreck of the Bayesian, encrusted with marine growth, was raised from the seabed, an event that was livestreamed in Italy.<\/p>\n
The curse of the Bayesian<\/p>\n
Two years after the yacht sank, the curse of the Bayesian lingers.<\/p>\n
Cutfield, who is based in Palma on the Spanish island of Mallorca, and the two other crew members still have the criminal investigation hanging over them.<\/p>\n
The wreck of the Bayesian is lowered into place at the port of Termini Imerese in Sicily after the salvage operation. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
Cutfield has been involved with boats his whole life, racing Olympic-class 470 dinghies in his younger years and later working in the boat-building industry for 30 years before becoming a captain. His brother Mark described Cutfield as a top sailor who had been a \u201cwell-respected\u201d superyacht captain for the past eight years.<\/p>\n
Bacares and Lynch\u2019s estate faces a long battle over the TISG lawsuit, which alleges crew failures and operational negligence led to the sinking of the Bayesian, not design flaws.<\/p>\n
It argues that Revtom, as the owner company, is liable for the actions of the crew. TISG claims it has suffered reputational damage, ruinous losses, a collapse in share price and sales that have slumped to zero. <\/p>\n
(TISG\u2019s shares plummeted again this year after it revealed debt-related financial losses and sought court protection from creditors.)<\/p>\n
The Bayesian superyacht, which sank off the coast of Sicily.<\/p>\n
However a UK study, commissioned by the MAIB after the sinking, pointed out that neither the Bayesian\u2019s owner nor crew would have known about the superyacht\u2019s stability issues when it was in \u201cmotoring mode\u201d (with the keel raised, sails furled and a light load of consumables aboard) because the vulnerability was not identified in the yacht\u2019s stability information book (SIB) carried on board.<\/p>\n
A body bag is brought ashore at the harbour in Porticello by rescue workers on the fifth day of the search and recovery operation after the luxury yacht Bayesian sank in a storm. Photo \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
The study by the University of Southampton\u2019s Wolfson Unit for Marine Technology and Industrial Aerodynamics, which used a model to replicate the Bayesian\u2019s motoring mode, concluded in 2025 that in wind speeds of more than 63.5 knots the Bayesian was more than likely to capsize. <\/p>\n
Once the yacht tipped by more than 70 degrees, there was no chance of it righting itself, the Wolfson study said. Around half of the heeling load was attributed to the yacht\u2019s mast.<\/p>\n
The superyacht Bayesian under sail.<\/p>\n
In October 2024, the New York Times published a story in which naval architects and marine industry experts blamed the Bayesian\u2019s instability on its very tall mast, claiming it significantly raised the centre of gravity, making it vulnerable to capsize in severe weather. TISG refuted the story and announced it would take legal action.<\/p>\n
But the news organisation is not backing down. The story is still on its website and the New York Times\u2019 senior vice-president of communications, Danielle Rhoades Ha, told the Herald, \u201cWe\u2019re confident in the accuracy of our coverage. There has been no lawsuit related to our article.\u201d<\/p>\n
Best sailing yacht<\/p>\n
The Bayesian, designed by Holland Design and built by Perini Navi in 2008, was originally named Salute. That year, the yacht won best interior at the International Superyacht Society Awards, and the following year won best sailing yacht over 45m at the World Superyacht Awards.<\/p>\n
Lynch and Bacares bought the yacht in 2014, renaming it the Bayesian and carrying out refits in 2016 and 2020.<\/p>\n
Ron Holland designed the superyacht Thalia, pictured moored in Auckland during the Rugby World Cup in 2011. Photo \/ Sarah Ivey<\/p>\n
Ron Holland, 79 and based in Vancouver, Canada, has designed superyachts for the wealthy, including Duran Duran, and comes with a remarkable pedigree. He designed the maxi class Condor and Peter Blake\u2019s Whitbread Around the World Race yacht, Lion New Zealand.<\/p>\n
Perini Navi built 10 superyachts using the Holland 56m hull, but the Bayesian was the only sloop (with a single mast). The other yachts were ketches with shorter masts.<\/p>\n
Holland, who published his memoir All the Oceans: Designing by the Seat of my Pants in 2018, also designed the Mirabella V, now called M5, in 2003, the largest single-masted sailing yacht in the world, featuring an 88.5m mast. He did not reply to messages from the Herald.<\/p>\n
The M5 designed by Ron Holland, moored at Silo Park in Auckland in 2016. Photo \/ Greg Bowker<\/p>\n
Jane Phare is a senior journalist based in Auckland. Her roles at the Herald have included assistant editor of NZ Herald, editor of the Weekend Herald, founding editor of Viva, features editor and deputy print editor.<\/p>\n