{"id":572992,"date":"2026-08-18T18:58:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:58:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/572992\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T18:58:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:58:20","slug":"spark-earnings-preview-one-analyst-sees-company-as-hugely-undervalued-others-see-big-problems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/572992\/","title":{"rendered":"Spark earnings preview: One analyst sees company as hugely undervalued; others see big problems"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">The sale of the latter is being explored.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">The Herald has been told Spark employees are bracing for possible major redundancies following an email sent to staff late last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Spark chief marketing and corporate affairs officer Leela Ashford said it had recently completed consultation with its senior leaders to \u201calign leadership roles with this new structure\u201d. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">The changes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-puts-digital-services-division-on-the-block-reaffirms-guidance\/premium\/ID4SCRMXQBDJ5L62X2XRLFFWVE\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-puts-digital-services-division-on-the-block-reaffirms-guidance\/premium\/ID4SCRMXQBDJ5L62X2XRLFFWVE\/\">included<\/a> the \u201cheavyweight\u201d Tommy Bjorkberg, previously with KPN in the Netherlands, being appointed chief operating officer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cOur leaders are now undertaking organisational design within their areas to ensure their teams are aligned too,\u201d Ashford said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWhere any proposed changes may affect roles, we will consult with our people and seek their feedback, as we always do.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Asked what percentage of roles could be affected, Ashford said: \u201cI can\u2019t provide any further details as design is still underway.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Plans are due to be finalised by the end  of this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">If the \u201cnon-core\u201d Digital Services division (representing around 25% of revenue) is sold, then the fate of its staff could be in the hands of a new owner.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">In FY2025, the company <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/one-of-the-most-challenging-periods-in-sparks-history-telco-takes-big-profit-hit-reveals-new-five-year-plan\/AIOY6GKUVBGTFFUD4X76XWI6ZQ\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/one-of-the-most-challenging-periods-in-sparks-history-telco-takes-big-profit-hit-reveals-new-five-year-plan\/AIOY6GKUVBGTFFUD4X76XWI6ZQ\/\" target=\"_blank\">saved more than $50m by cutting 1300 staff<\/a> (down to 4043) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/technology\/spark-confirms-jobs-will-go-as-it-outsources-to-ai-networking-partner\/H423GM5DAVHPNPBSDZUDZ77EWM\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/technology\/spark-confirms-jobs-will-go-as-it-outsources-to-ai-networking-partner\/H423GM5DAVHPNPBSDZUDZ77EWM\/\" target=\"_blank\">outsourcing more IT and mobile work<\/a> to Indian outsourcing and offshoring giant Infosys.<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Source \/ Spark investor presentation\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Source \/ Spark investor presentation<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Oversold\u2019, worth double today\u2019s share price<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Spark has made missteps, including overpaying its dividend, moving too slowly on cost-cutting, business losses to 2degrees and financially under-performing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/infratil-boosts-earnings-as-cdc-dominates-valuation-one-nz-dominates-profit-contribution\/premium\/DVWDD4FWHNEZTDFKT5J6JW6754\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/infratil-boosts-earnings-as-cdc-dominates-valuation-one-nz-dominates-profit-contribution\/premium\/DVWDD4FWHNEZTDFKT5J6JW6754\/\">compared to One NZ<\/a>, Morningstar\u2019s Brian Han said in a June 23 research note.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">But he also thought investors had over-reacted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cSpark is in the midst of a simplification and cost-out programme, the belatedness of which, compared with peers, coincides with a persistently weak Kiwi economy,\u201d Han said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cWith few progress updates, investors are assuming the worst and materially under-valuing the stock.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img  alt=\"Spark shares have recently hit their lowest point since the Chorus split.\" class=\"article-media__image responsively-lazy\" data-test-ui=\"article-media__image\"\/>Spark shares have recently hit their lowest point since the Chorus split.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">The telco\u2019s shares have been in a multi-year slump. Last month, they hit $1.77 \u2013 an all-time low since Telecom was broken into Spark and Chorus in 2011. They were recently trading at $1.94.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Han estimated their fair value to be $3.60, if earnings stabilise and the telco continues its solid performance in mobile, and \u201ccontinuing to extract operational efficiencies\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Han said his fair value remained $3.60 following the July core\/non-core business split announcement. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Non-core operations, particularly IT services, had been a drag on profit and a distraction for management.<\/p>\n<p>Savings target<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe result needs to be mostly expense-driven, to show management has its arms around costs,\u201d Morningstar\u2019s Lochlan Halloway said in his August Market Snapshot earnings preview for Spark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThat will boost confidence the annualised cost savings target of $110 million to $140m by end fiscal 2027 can be achieved and show the current 8% [dividend] yield is durable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>How much Digital Services could sell for<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Spark could raise around $500m by selling Digital Services and its remaining 25% stake in its data centre business, Forsyth Barr analyst Ben Crozier said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">But he also noted that, over the next few years, Spark will have to pay around $300m in spectrum renewal rights. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">The previous Government cancelled the last five-yearly spectrum auction, instead directly granting Spark, One NZ and 2degrees 5G airwaves in return for a pledge to spend more on expanding their provincial and rural mobile networks. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">In July, the current Government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/telcos-caution-government-plan-to-auction-radio-spectrum-could-hit-network-investment-consumers\/premium\/TN5CJ5DFH5C2NGXGSSVI7TXM7Q\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/telcos-caution-government-plan-to-auction-radio-spectrum-could-hit-network-investment-consumers\/premium\/TN5CJ5DFH5C2NGXGSSVI7TXM7Q\/\">flagged a return<\/a> to commercial auctions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">That means the bulk of the asset sale revenue could go on paying for airwaves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Borrowing more is not an option, or at least a costly one.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Spark has \u201conly\u201d around $900m in net bank debt after its cell tower network and 75% data centre asset sales reduced its debt-to-ebitda ratio from 2.3x to what he expects will be 1.7x in Thursday\u2019s numbers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">But this still gives the telco little headroom, Crozier said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">It is currently at the upper limit of its A- credit rating, with S&amp;P putting it on negative watch. It could not maintain its current dividend outlook while retaining its A- rating unless Digital Services sale proceeds are used to meet its spectrum bill. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Crozier has a neutral rating with a $2.30 12-month target price.<\/p>\n<p>Time for \u2018regime change\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI think regime change is necessary,\u201d independent researcher and BusinessDesk columnist Eden Bradfield told the Herald.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI find it remarkable that Jolie\u2019s still there when the stock price has been decimated under her tenure,\u201d Bradfield said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cIn Australia or America, you\u2019d have activists going, \u2018What the hell is happening here?\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Some of the proceeds from asset sales had gone to share buybacks and propping up its dividend at a time when Spark was struggling to find an estimated $1 billion to expand its data centre business. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Asset sales have included selling down Spark\u2019s stake in the Southern Cross Cable, offloading its minority stake in Hutchison Telecommunications Australia for $47m, selling the passive assets of its celltower network (in two phases, raising $1.2b) and the recent sale of 75% of its data centre business to Australia\u2019s Private Equity Partners for $453m, with a possible $98m performance payment).<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Bradfield said a slide from a Spark strategy deck this year, which said data centre demand would grow by 8x over the next decade, was \u201clike being the fifth Beatle then telling everybody how good the band would be\u201d. He said he would have floated that part of the business to raise funds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">There had been a decision to diversify Spark\u2019s businesses, which pre-dated Hodson, followed by the recent decision to refocus on its core business. <\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cOnce you\u2019ve sold the family silver, and the furniture, what\u2019s next?\u201d They\u2019ll become just an ordinary Joe Bloggs telco; a utility, and that\u2019s how they should be valued.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>New CEO \u2018on next chair\u2019s agenda\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Earlier, the Herald asked Salt Funds\u2019 managing director Matthew Goodson if he expected leadership change at Spark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cSpark themselves have already clearly signalled significant board changes, so that is something that is expected by the market. We\u2019ll be looking for the addition of further strong industry expertise as opposed to more generalist governance directors,\u201d Goodson said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cI\u2019d expect that [a new chief executive] will be on the agenda for the next chair. Jolie Hodson has had over seven years as CEO and has had senior roles at Spark since 2013, so it would be a natural time to transition to a new leader.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cGiven the commoditised nature of much of their business and the lack of revenue growth, we\u2019ll also be looking for a real focus on opex to preserve margins.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Chairwoman Justine Smyth said her current term will be her last. In August last year, Spark added new directors including ex-Mercury chief executive Vince Hawksworth and Milford Asset Management chair Lindsay Wright.<\/p>\n<p>Existential threat from above<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Harbour Asset Management\u2019s Shane Solly said publicly listed telcos around the world had seen their share price under pressure because of the threat of broadband from above.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">While Spark is a wholesale partner for Starlink in New Zealand (along with One NZ and 2degrees), analysts have long seen the possibility that the SpaceX-owned Starlink could expand from a rural product (where it recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/starlink-becomes-nzs-largest-rural-internet-provider-as-some-local-players-suffer-tech-insider\/premium\/UFCCHFU64FEMLGTKRJI6Q4NMAQ\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/starlink-becomes-nzs-largest-rural-internet-provider-as-some-local-players-suffer-tech-insider\/premium\/UFCCHFU64FEMLGTKRJI6Q4NMAQ\/\">moved ahead of Spark to become number one in NZ<\/a>) to embark on an urban takeover.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">SpaceX founder Elon Musk made the threat explicit earlier this month as plans were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/rocket-lab-lands-us397m-space-force-contract-for-neutron-spacex-confirms-plans-to-go-after-telcos\/ZVYBFDIVUJA33CZ3HNWCYRAO6M\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/rocket-lab-lands-us397m-space-force-contract-for-neutron-spacex-confirms-plans-to-go-after-telcos\/ZVYBFDIVUJA33CZ3HNWCYRAO6M\/\">revealed<\/a> for a Starlink mobile service in the US, using femtocells (mini cellsites on the ground) to supplement its satellite broadband.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">In the here-and-now, Solly said it was notable that Spark had been able to reaffirm its FY26 guidance despite the economic slowdown persisting.<\/p>\n<p>How the first-half went<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Spark reported an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-first-half-profit-improves-but-still-falls-shy-of-expectations\/premium\/4AHBP3KT2NDOHEO4CUJ56GFFNM\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-first-half-profit-improves-but-still-falls-shy-of-expectations\/premium\/4AHBP3KT2NDOHEO4CUJ56GFFNM\/\" target=\"_blank\">improved first-half net profit<\/a> of $64m but, in line with expectations of a \u201creset\u201d, also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-first-half-profit-improves-but-still-falls-shy-of-expectations\/premium\/4AHBP3KT2NDOHEO4CUJ56GFFNM\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/business\/spark-first-half-profit-improves-but-still-falls-shy-of-expectations\/premium\/4AHBP3KT2NDOHEO4CUJ56GFFNM\/\" target=\"_blank\">cut its dividend<\/a> to 8 cents per share versus the 12.5cps payout for H12025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">During July, the telco reaffirmed its full-year guidance including earnings before interest tax, depreciation, amortisation and impairment (ebitdai) of $1.01b to $1.07b and free cashflow guidance of $290m-$330m, which it earlier said would underpin a full-year dividend of 15 to 17cps \u2013 compared to 25cps for FY2025 and 27.5cps for FY2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bcxzNmxesLZ\" style=\"display:none\">Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald\u2019s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The sale of the latter is being explored. The Herald has been told Spark employees are bracing for&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":572993,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[6751,28357,74,7674,696,17623,806,6743,8834,2372,138,37432,1656,7500,4568,282419,282383,13021,16572,238736,685,111,139,12885,69,1570,5270,2682,6744,13183,10057,3227,10534,29647,34463,24503,9643,8207,427,64645,199,1361,1961,3764,282418,1803,57765,1533,379],"class_list":["post-572992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-6751","tag-28357","tag-after","tag-analyst","tag-announced","tag-appointed","tag-as","tag-became","tag-big","tag-board","tag-business","tag-chair","tag-company","tag-december","tag-earnings","tag-exmercury","tag-hawksworth","tag-hugely","tag-joined","tag-justine","tag-last","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-november","tag-nz","tag-october","tag-one","tag-others","tag-place","tag-preview","tag-problems","tag-published","tag-see","tag-sees","tag-shortly","tag-smyth","tag-spark","tag-sparks","tag-story","tag-succeed","tag-take","tag-that","tag-this","tag-transition","tag-undervalued","tag-update","tag-vince","tag-will","tag-year"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=572992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572992\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/572993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=572992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=572992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=572992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}