{"id":574038,"date":"2026-08-19T18:46:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T18:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/574038\/"},"modified":"2026-08-19T18:46:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T18:46:09","slug":"brighter-economic-outlook-despite-rising-unemployment-and-election-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/574038\/","title":{"rendered":"Brighter economic outlook despite rising unemployment and election uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

New Zealand’s economic outlook is looking brighter, despite the ongoing conflict<\/a> in the Middle East, rising unemployment<\/a> and uncertainty ahead of the general election.<\/p>\n

Provisional estimates from the Infometrics June 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests economic activity rose 2.6 percent in the June 2026 quarter, and was up 1.7 percent over the year earlier.<\/p>\n

“All 16 regional economies expanded in the June 2026 quarter,” Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon said.<\/p>\n

“Growth continues to be led from the south, with Southland, Otago, Canterbury and Nelson-Tasman all growing at over 2 percent in the year to June 2026. Parts of the North Island are joining in too, with strong growth seen in both Waikato and the Bay of Plenty.”<\/p>\n

While employment growth lagged behind other economic activity, job numbers rose 0.4 percent in the June 2026 quarter, including a 0.3 percent lift in Auckland, following a decline over the past two years.<\/p>\n

However, six regions still saw the number of jobs fall in the second quarter, with an increase in the unemployment rate and demand for work outpacing a low number of job ads.<\/p>\n

\"Infometrics<\/p>\n

Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon.<\/p>\n

Supplied \/ Infometrics<\/p>\n

“Despite the clear economic headwinds from conflict in the Middle East, economic activity might not have been as badly hit as first feared,” he said.<\/p>\n

“The more upbeat result is due to a combination of the weaker economy last year, and less of an intense hit to the economy – so far – from the Iran War.”<\/p>\n

Brunsdon said a strong primary sector and increased activity across most industries this quarter was another positive.<\/p>\n

“That said, we remain concerned about the pace of recovery over the rest of 2026 amid continued global uncertainty.”<\/p>\n

He said household spending remained delicate, with Marketview date indicating card spending rose just 0.6 percent in the year to June 2026.<\/p>\n

Infometrics estimates that spending volumes fell 1.5 percent over the past year, once retail inflation was accounted for, higher prices for fuel reduced the real level of spending activity.<\/p>\n

Still, there were other positives.<\/p>\n

“Tourism activity continues to expand, with a 3.6 percent lift in commercial guest nights recorded over the June 2026 year,” Brunsdon noted.<\/p>\n

“A 9.1 percent lift in international guest nights drove this result, as international tourism’s recovery rolls on, even as domestic guest nights rose a sluggish 0.6 percent as higher fuel prices restrained Kiwi holidays across the country.”<\/p>\n

Residential construction intentions also showed recovery with a 19 percent lift to more than 40,000 building consents over the 12 months to June.<\/p>\n

Provincial areas contributed the most to the increase, with consents up 22 percent, closely followed by a 20 percent lift in consents in metro areas. However, building consents in rural areas fell 5.3 percent, in line with an adjustment to shifts in population trends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New Zealand’s economic outlook is looking brighter, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising unemployment and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":516453,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-574038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=574038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574038\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/516453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=574038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=574038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=574038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}