\n When hot dog sales there see a dramatic pickup \u2014 particularly the two-frank-and-tropical-drink \u201cRecession Special\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s usually a signal that folks have fallen on harder times, owner Rachael Gray told CNN.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cWe noticed a big uptick around 2008-2009, when everything was collapsing (amid the Great Financial Crisis), and we are feeling the same thing right now \u2014 to a lesser extent, obviously, but the pattern is the same,\u201d she said.\n <\/p>\n
\n There are scores of traditional, time-tested gauges of the US economy\u2019s health and its trajectory: Federal data on employment<\/a>, production, spending, income and other critical areas factors heavily into the calculus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, when it dates business cycles.\n <\/p>\n \n (The NBER\u2019s declarations<\/a>, by the way, don\u2019t happen in real time. They often come months, and sometimes not for two years, after a recession has already started.)\n <\/p>\n \n Still, as it stands now, while some barometers indicate the US economy is slowing, recent data has shown that it\u2019s still growing<\/a>, consumer spending remains strong<\/a> and the unemployment rate<\/a> isn\u2019t yet tripping alarm bells.\n <\/p>\n \n However, for many Americans, especially middle- and lower-income households, there\u2019s a growing disconnect. This sure doesn\u2019t feel like a period of economic prosperity, they say<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWhen we look at these aggregate numbers, that\u2019s representative of some average outcome,\u201d Ariel Zetlin-Jones, associate professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University\u2019s Tepper School of Business, told CNN. \u201cIt\u2019s not showing us distributional outcome. And so, as inequality increases to some extent, people will disagree with what they see in the averages a little bit more.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n So, beyond the spreads of credit, the curves of yields and the claims for unemployment benefits, there\u2019s a motley crew of unorthodox metrics that are gaining popularity at a time when aggregate spending data mostly reflects the actions of the well-heeled few<\/a> (and when fears are heightened<\/a> about the integrity of federal data \u2014 or whether we\u2019ll get any data at all<\/a>, if the government shuts down).\n <\/p>\n \n While seemingly more silly than scientific, here\u2019s what a selection of some real-world objects and activities \u2014 like hot dogs, movie-going, pawn loans, cardboard boxes, camping and gas station snacks \u2014 can tell us about the state of the American consumer and broader economy.\n <\/p>\n Franks and foundations<\/p>\n \n The Gray\u2019s Papaya sales pattern appears to convey a straightforward trend: When people are looking to save money, they\u2019ll seek out value and turn to cheaper eats.\n <\/p>\n \n In recent weeks, sales of the $7.50 Recession Special have been on the rise. However, Gray\u2019s noticed that customers are sizing down even further: Even more people have been ordering up the $5 one-dog-and-drink Local Special (which was launched in 2018).\n <\/p>\n \n But there\u2019s a negative correlation element also at play: declining activity at Rachael Gray\u2019s architecture practice.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cMy architectural practice has slowed down, and Gray\u2019s is picking up in terms of the number of tickets,\u201d she said, adding that dynamic was often noted by her husband and Gray\u2019s Papaya founder, Nicholas Gray, who passed away in 2023.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWhen Nick was alive, he would always say, \u2018If we\u2019re going into a recession, you\u2019re going to slow down and Gray\u2019s will carry us; and then in good times, it\u2019s the other way around,\u2019\u201d she added.\n <\/p>\n Boxes and boxes<\/p>\n \n In this age of Amazon, packages promptly appear on doorsteps following a mere click of a button or a vocal cue. The discards fill recycling bins to the brim and clutter closets, basements and hallways.\n <\/p>\n \n Now, the seemingly unfathomable part: Cardboard box shipments are at a decade low<\/a>, and producers of the ubiquitous products are cutting production and laying off employees.\n <\/p>\n \n About 9% of domestic box production capacity is set to shut down, which is the steepest retraction for the industry since the 2008 financial crisis, Virginia Tech economist Jadrian Wooten wrote earlier this month<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWhat does this mean for the rest of us? If we\u2019re to assume that cardboard boxes are a leading indicator, it could be a bad sign of what\u2019s ahead,\u201d Wooten wrote. \u201cIf they\u2019re cutting back on capacity, it likely comes as a response to fewer orders. That would suggest weaker demand in the broader economy. If shipments keep falling, other indicators like GDP or unemployment may eventually catch up.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n While not all of the slowdown in box production can be attributable to falling demand for goods, the slump is present in other areas of the freight economy, said Adam Josephson, a longtime paper and packaging sell-side analyst who now authors an economics newsletter.\n <\/p>\n \n The Cass Freight Index<\/a>, which measures aggregate deliveries of freight across North America, is at its lowest level since the early stages of the pandemic, he said. Excluding the steep plunge in 2020, the index is at its lowest since 2010.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThat ought to tell you something,\u201d he said. \u201cWhether you look at the trucking market, the box market, they tell you that there is a real problem here with goods demand that only seems to be getting worse.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \u2026 and box offices<\/p>\n \n Movie theaters have long been considered a countercyclical economic indicator, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, which tracks an array of media platforms, including the silver screen.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cDuring the Great Depression, people went to the movies in huge numbers, so it does seem that the escapism and the respite from the real world that movie theaters provide has value as much today as it did 50 or even 100 years ago,\u201d he told CNN. \u201cWhile moviegoers are price-sensitive, going out to the movies is a relatively inexpensive way to be entertained outside of the home.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Through September 28, box office revenue is up<\/a> 4.5% from this time last year, Comscore data shows.\n <\/p>\n \n However, there are plenty of caveats that come with cinema data, and, oftentimes, it\u2019s the content that plays an outsized role in demand swings, Dergarabedian noted.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cPeople see going to the movies as an affordable escape, but they\u2019re not just going to do it for the sake of going out of the house. They\u2019ll go if a movie looks compelling or if it has great word of mouth and\/or great reviews,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n Campfires and snacks<\/p>\n \n Another sky-is-blue datapoint: Spending on outdoor activities typically increases during the spring and summer months.\n <\/p>\n \n However, since April, spending at campsites has spiked and was up 15% year over year in August, according to Bank of America card data. That\u2019s the strongest growth seen at campgrounds since early 2022 (when inflation was escalating).\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cConsumers may be trading airfare for fire pits, drawn by affordability and a wellness-focused vibe,\u201d Bank of America analysts wrote in a note last week.\n <\/p>\n \n Recent months\u2019 data and company earnings reports show that Americans are putting an increasing share of their dollars toward essential areas \u2014 particularly health care, housing and insurance \u2014 as they pull back on other spending, former packaging analyst Josephson said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAs more of people\u2019s wallets go toward mandatory items, the less money they have to spend on discretionary items,\u201d he said in an interview.\n <\/p>\n \n People trade down, look for bargains and cut out some expenses.\n <\/p>\n \n And when figurative financial belts are tightened, nonessential goods like snacks oftentimes land on the chopping block<\/a> (which, in turn, could lead to literal belt-tightening).\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWe continue to see lower-income, lower\/middle-income consumers stretched, strained, really controlling their spending,\u201d Alex Miller, chief executive officer of Alimentation Couche-Tard, which operates convenience stores such as Circle K, said earlier this month during the company\u2019s most recent earnings call.\n <\/p>\n \n Some of the world\u2019s largest makers of salty, savory and sweet treats have flagged weakness in their snack portfolio<\/a>, Josephson said, adding that many of these companies had dramatically hiked their prices in recent years.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cCoincidentally, their food volumes have been under constant pressure in recent quarters,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n \n The latest available Federal Reserve data on loan officers\u2019 lending practices<\/a> showed that standards are getting tighter and credit is increasingly harder to obtain for consumers with lower scores.\n <\/p>\n![\"Customers](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/250926-lo-business-grayspapayahotdogstandnyc-09262025-oliverio-20250926-422.JPG\")
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