A taste of what\u2019s ahead<\/p>\n
Rainfall modelling to the end of September points to a dry North Island, along with the top and east of the South Island, Brandolino said, though the risk will not be uniform. <\/p>\n
Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty are likely to experience below average rainfall – with Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa, Marlborough, the top of the South Island and Canterbury also facing elevated risk.<\/p>\n
The western and lower South Island faces the opposite problem, with wetter than usual conditions likely to build into what could become excess rainfall by October and November. <\/p>\n
Modelling is also flagging wind events dragging warm air off Australia, producing short, sharp bursts of unusually high temperatures for the time of year. <\/p>\n
“These spiky temperatures will be fuelled by these wind events, but when you combine the wind, the temperatures, the lack of rainfall, this could lead to enhanced fire risk and perhaps a busier than usual wildfire season,” Brandolino said. <\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/a-fire-and-emergency-nz-spokesperson-said-the-agency-had-beg-H7WFQYBQKVBG7IBPL7JEK7MV4I.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
A Fire and Emergency NZ spokesperson said the agency had begun preparations early. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n
Firefighters gear up early<\/p>\n
A Fire and Emergency NZ spokesperson said the agency had begun preparations early, including reviewing operational readiness, monitoring emerging risk areas, and working with local authorities, iwi, land managers and industry partners. <\/p>\n
Crews have been checking equipment and have increased foam and retardant stocks by 20,000 litres, to carry 120,000 litres, to brace for the possibility of more fires.<\/p>\n
Firefighters, aviation, drones and specialist crews can also be moved or pre-positioned between regions if conditions call for it, backed by support from the Department of Conservation, forestry partners and the Defence Force. <\/p>\n
New Zealand also currently has firefighters deployed to the United States and Canada, experience the spokesperson said was valuable for tackling large, complex fires at home.<\/p>\n
With about 98% of wildfires in New Zealand caused by people, the spokesperson urged property owners to clear dead vegetation, keep accessways clear for emergency vehicles, and ensure water supplies like tanks are accessible.<\/p>\n
“The most effective time to prepare is before conditions become severe and before there is smoke in the air,” they said.<\/p>\n
![\"MPI](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/a-sprinkler-irrigation-system-at-work-on-a-farm-pasture-37WUQN5VIZAJZI72NJNWISUPDU.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
MPI is working with farmers and growers to prepare for potentially dry conditions. (Source: istock.com)<\/p>\n
‘Make decisions early’: Farmers urged to act now<\/p>\n
The Ministry of Primary Industries’ Andrew Curtis said it is working with sector groups to get farmers and growers ready. <\/p>\n
“It’s important farmers make decisions early, including identifying feed deficits and assessing the potential for summer feed crops. It could also mean prioritising livestock for destocking early and feeding the remainder as well as possible,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Curtis said the pattern could also bring increased rainfall to Southland, parts of Otago and western facing areas, primarily in the South Island. <\/p>\n
He stressed help was available, including through levy organisations such as DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb New Zealand, with MPI staff working alongside the Rural Support Trust. <\/p>\n
“If you’re new to farming, growing, or a district, it can be helpful to talk to experts who’ve been through an El Ni\u00f1o in your area before,” he said. <\/p>\n
Lifestyle block owners, particularly those new to rural life, should also be making a dry-weather plan for their animals, Curtis said, with prolonged hot, dry spells raising the risk of drought, heat stress in animals and wildfire. <\/p>\n
![\"Some](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rangitata-6ONS6C6UFVH6VH7DUW5Z5BDI5A.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Some would say New Zealand is already dry enough. A midsummer view of the flood plain of Rangitata, Canterbury. (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n
Dry weather puts water on watch<\/p>\n
Extended dry conditions could put pressure on rivers, streams, reservoirs and aquifers while increasing demand for water, Taumata Arowai head of operations Steve Taylor said.<\/p>\n
North and eastern areas are considered most at risk of shortages, with rural and smaller communities reliant on rainwater tanks, shallow groundwater or small community schemes particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Early planning will make a \u201creal difference when dry conditions put pressure on supplies\u201d, with Taylor saying suppliers should engage with the community \u201cas early as possible\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201cPeople should follow any restrictions or advisories put in place by their drinking water supplier or local council.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor households, the best things people can do now are practical: follow local water saving advice, report leaks to their council, get leaks on their own property fixed, and store emergency drinking water.\u201d <\/p>\n
Health NZ has warned babies, older people, disabled people and those with serious long-term health conditions face the greatest risk from both heat and wildfire smoke, which can travel long distances and worsen existing conditions. <\/p>\n
People are urged to watch for heat rash, heat cramps, sunburn, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and to seek immediate medical attention if they see signs of heatstroke or sunstroke. <\/p>\n
Households are advised to stay inside or in the shade during hot weather, limit physical activity and keep up fluids – and to head somewhere air conditioned, such as a library or shopping mall, if they cannot keep their home cool.<\/p>\n
The ocean has flipped from La Ni\u00f1a to a fast-intensifying El Ni\u00f1o in a matter of months, with more profound impacts expected for New Zealand. (Source: Supplied)<\/p>\n
The big unknown: How this El Ni\u00f1o will behave<\/p>\n
Brandolino said comparisons with previous strong El Ni\u00f1o years needed to be treated carefully. <\/p>\n
“We know the average outcome of El Ni\u00f1o, but no El Ni\u00f1o is average. Every El Ni\u00f1o has its own sort of DNA, has its own sort of fingerprints,” he said. <\/p>\n
Previous “super” El Ni\u00f1o events in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 are being used to anticipate what might unfold, but Brandolino said the small sample size is only part of the problem. The bigger issue is that the Earth itself has changed, with the events of the early 1970s and early 1980s occurring when the planet was significantly cooler. <\/p>\n
“The Earth has only gotten warmer. That is a bit of a wrinkle that we’re a bit unsure how that may influence this El Ni\u00f1o event.” <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Firefighters are stockpiling retardant and farmers are being told to make early calls on stock numbers, as preparations…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":577430,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5901,390,111,43,139,69,3393],"class_list":["post-577429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-1news-recommends","tag-climate-change","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-weather-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/577429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=577429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/577429\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/577430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=577429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=577429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=577429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}