\u201cWhy are kids leaving school with no qualifications? Probably because they were told to look at the picture and guess the word when they were 5 years old, and they\u2019ve never really been able to read ever since.\u201d<\/p>\n
Auckland University of Technology senior lecturer in teacher education Stuart Deerness said this oversimplified the issue.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat\u2019s actually driving the increase in the group of young people leaving school with no qualifications? <\/p>\n
\u201cMinister Stanford\u2019s \u2018look at the picture and guess the word\u2019 line was already too simple an answer for the group we knew about. It doesn\u2019t get more convincing just because the group turns out to be bigger.\u201d<\/p>\n
Grant Pollard, the Education Ministry\u2019s data and insights general manager, said the ministry was looking into the impact on school leaver data of an increasing number of schools moving away from offering NCEA Level 1.<\/p>\n
This may not have a large impact because those schools tend to have students facing fewer socio-economic barriers, who are more likely to continue to NCEA Level 2 and beyond.<\/p>\n
Any impact could also be felt in the official as well as the actual numbers.<\/p>\n
Research measures NCEA benchmarks, not their equivalents<\/p>\n
The way the official school leaver data is recorded hasn\u2019t changed since NCEA started to be introduced in 2002. <\/p>\n
At the time, it was considered to be of value to recognise school leavers who fell short of NCEA benchmarks but had earned some credits at higher levels.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s those benchmarks, rather than their equivalents as well, that are referenced in much of the research into the future prospects of school leavers, relative to their educational success.<\/p>\n
Ministry of Education analysis<\/a> of school leavers shows that about 70% who fall short of NCEA Level 1 end up not in employment, education or training (NEET) the following year, while it\u2019s almost 50% for those without Level 2.<\/p>\n A 2018 ministry analysis<\/a> found over 40% of those who fall short of NCEA Level 1 never find work or undertake further education or training.<\/p>\n \u201cEmployment rates never reach 50% for those that don\u2019t [have any NCEA qualification]. Even leavers with NCEA 1 are 30% to 40% more likely to be in work,\u201d the analysis said<\/a>.<\/p>\n More recent analysis \u2013 in the 2023 Government report Preparing All Young People<\/a> \u2013 said those below the Level 2 benchmark were four times more likely to spend half their years in limited employment (long periods unemployed, under-employed, or in low-wage or insecure work) between ages 16 and 24.<\/p>\n The growing cohort of school leavers with no NCEA qualifications contributed to the 14.4% NEET rate (for 15 to 24-year-olds) for the March quarter, the highest in a decade before falling to 13.8% for the June quarter. <\/p>\n The June data showed 180,200 underutilised people in the 15-24 age group, an increase of 13.6% from a year earlier; the underutilisation rate measures spare capacity in the labour market (the unemployed, underemployed, available jobseekers and unavailable jobseekers).<\/p>\n Nor is the job market for last year\u2019s school leavers about to get easier. Unemployment is at an 11-year high<\/a>, and the Official Cash Rate<\/a> is expected to keep rising this year.<\/p>\n A growing cohort of students leaving high school with no qualifications will also put more pressure on a future workforce, which is shrinking due to declining birth rates.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re seeing the impacts of declining fertility on our primary education, where the numbers in the primary schools between 2024 and 2034 will drop by nearly 37,000 [or by 7%],\u201d Professor Paul Spoonley told the Herald<\/a> when the report he co-authored, People, Place and Prosperity, was released in April.<\/p>\n \u201cThe numbers in our secondary schools will drop by 20,000 [or 6%]. That then translates at a later point into fewer workers,\u201d he said, adding this could be offset through immigration. <\/p>\n \u2018It\u2019s going to take time\u2019<\/p>\n Stanford has also said that students who are more deprived should benefit the most from her reforms<\/a>, which include an hour of reading, writing and maths every year to Year 8, as well as annual checks.<\/p>\n \u201cLow-decile schools will have access to exactly the same high-quality curriculum as schools in high-decile areas. And their teachers are all getting the same high-quality professional learning and development in structured maths and structured literacy.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s going to take time but that\u2019s why these reforms matter. They\u2019re creating consistency across the country and raising the standard in schools where, predominantly, these kids are at.\u201d<\/p>\n Her education reforms, supported by some, have provoked concerns about worsening inequity from critics who believe they are too rigid and prescriptive.<\/p>\n The Government has also implemented a number of targeted initiatives aimed at struggling Year 6 to 10 students, including accelerated writing tools and maths tutoring for those more than a year behind.<\/p>\n The 2025 foundational assessment data showed 70% of socioeconomically deprived kids<\/a> were already more than a year behind in maths by Year 3.<\/p>\n It was 80% for the same cohort in Year 3 for writing, and two-thirds for reading. <\/p>\nFor several years NCEA results were improving – but have been declining in general since 2020. Photo \/ 123RF, Herald montage<\/p>\n
Education Minister Erica Standford recently announced expanding the Engage and Enrich programmes in Early Childhood Education to counter the number of 5-year-olds starting primary school with the speaking skills of a 2-year-old. Photo \/ Alyse Wright <\/p>\n