{"id":581212,"date":"2026-08-26T20:06:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T20:06:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/581212\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T20:06:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T20:06:23","slug":"westpac-economists-tip-return-to-growth-this-quarter-as-economy-shakes-off-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/581212\/","title":{"rendered":"Westpac economists tip return to growth this quarter as economy shakes off Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cInflation has lifted significantly and looks set to remain well above 3% over 2026, and core inflation is in the upper part of the RBNZ\u2019s 1-3% target range,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">The economist predicted headline inflation would stay above 3% until mid-2027 before briefly dipping below 2% as fuel effects drop out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cThe underlying pressure on prices has proven persistent, and the Reserve Bank will need to manage that carefully.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">Eckhold said Westpac expects two further 25-basis-point hikes to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) \u2013 currently 2.5% \u2013 this year before moving to a modestly restrictive 4% through 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cCore inflation is unlikely to decline to 2% without additional monetary policy action.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">Meanwhile, he said unemployment had likely peaked, with a gradual improvement from the second half of this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">The unemployment rate rose to an 11-year high of 5.6% in the June 2026 quarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">He expected it to ease to 4.9% by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">Eckhold said there were several important risks to the outlook.<\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cRisks associated with the Iran war remain as no diplomatic resolution has been reached. <\/p>\n<p class=\"TpGGueVENmajZwYgWe\" style=\"display:none\">\u201cSimilarly, the general election looks likely to be close. A change in the make-up of the Government, and thus policy direction, could have implications for particular sectors of the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/my-account\/profile\/newsletters\/?from=cmp\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/my-account\/profile\/newsletters\/?from=cmp\">Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cInflation has lifted significantly and looks set to remain well above 3% over 2026, and core inflation is&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":581213,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[3225,806,138,7123,27254,13488,219,5616,3499,305,16609,111,139,69,6662,13420,1560,1527,71299,1961,28468,61,6149,17239,1533],"class_list":["post-581212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-according","tag-as","tag-business","tag-current","tag-disruptions","tag-economists","tag-economy","tag-forecast","tag-growth","tag-have","tag-iran","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-off","tag-quarter","tag-report","tag-return","tag-shakes","tag-this","tag-tip","tag-to","tag-war","tag-westpac","tag-will"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=581212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/581212\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/581213"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=581212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=581212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=581212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}