Bank of England’s Ramsden sees inflation falling to target as jobs market weakens<\/p>\n
Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has warned that that Britain\u2019s jobs market had weakened and wage growth was normalising.<\/p>\n
While those two factors are both bad news for workers, they\u2019re encouraging for central bankers \u2013 it means Ramsden is confident that inflation would fall back to the BoE\u2019s target.<\/p>\n
Speaking on a panel discussion organised by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Ramsden says (via Reuters):<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have seen the labour market continuing to loosen with wage growth normalising and I see that as supporting a continuation of the core disinflation process. And that anchors my view on the inflation outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ramsden was one of the seven Bank policymakers who voted to leave interest rates on hold earlier this month, when there were two votes to cut rates.<\/p>\n
He has been seen as one of the more dovish members of the committee.<\/p>\n
Inflation was last clocked at 3.8%, almost double the Bank\u2019s target.<\/p>\n
Recruitment data provider Adzuna has reported today that the UK jobs market is \u201ccooling, not collapsing\u201d, with graduates fresh from university likely to be hit by a slowdown in hiring.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.50 EDT<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n Closing post<\/p>\n Time to wrap up\u2026<\/p>\n Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has warned that that Britain\u2019s jobs market had weakened and wage growth was normalising, which will help bring inflation back to target.<\/p>\n The gold price continues to inflate, though, hitting a record high of $3,831 per ounce today<\/a>.<\/p>\n UK carmaker Jaguar Land Rover is close to restarting some manufacturing<\/a>, after a cyber-attack disrupted production for a month. The move came after the UK government agreed to underwrite a \u00a31.5bn loan for the company, sparking fears of \u2018moral hazard\u2019.<\/a><\/p>\n Britain\u2019s second-biggest drugmaker GSK has announced the surprise departure of its chief executive, Emma Walmsley<\/a>, after eight years in the top job.<\/p>\n Rival pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca has said it will list its shares directly on the New York Stock Exchange<\/a> in a decision described as a \u201cknock-back for London\u201d.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>New pay offer for London Underground workers<\/p>\n A new pay offer has been made to London Underground workers following strikes earlier this month.<\/p>\n The Rail, Maritime and Transport union (RMT) say the new offer was a three-year deal comprising of a 3.4% pay increase in year one and a rise in line with RPI inflation in years two and three.<\/p>\n RMT members took industrial action which brought Tube services to a halt for days this month, causing travel disruption in the capital; talks resumed between Transport for London and the union after the strike ended.<\/a><\/p>\n RMT general secretary Eddie Dempsey says:<\/p>\n \u201cThis offer will now be discussed by the national executive committee and in consultation with the membership.<\/p>\n \u201cAs a result, the union remains in dispute with London Underground subject to the will of the membership under our democratic structures.\u201d<\/p>\n The RPI inflation rate is typically used as a benchmark for pay negotiations, and was recorded at 4.6% in the year to August.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Over in New York, stocks have opened a little higher despite the threat of a US government shutdown later this week.<\/p>\n The S&P 500 index has gained 26 points, or 0.4%, to reach 6,669 points in early trading.<\/p>\n The Dow Jones industrial average is flat, though, with oil producer Chevron leading the fallers (-2%), tracking a drop in the oil price today.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Carnival raises annual profit forecast on cruise demandThe Carnival Legend cruise ship docks at new berth at Forth Ports Leith in Edinburgh, Scotland. Photograph: Iain Masterton\/Alamy<\/p>\n Cruise operator Carnival has raised its annual profit forecast, citing strong demand for trips, higher prices and robust spending by passengers on board.<\/p>\n Carnival has raised its full year 2025 adjusted net income guidance for the third quarter in a row due to \u201cimproved net yields\u201d, reporting that booking for 2026 is looking strong, with historically high prices.<\/p>\n Carnival\u2019s CEO Josh Weinstein reports:<\/p>\n \u201cSince May, booking trends have continued to strengthen with higher booking volumes than last year and far outpacing capacity growth.<\/p>\n This momentum affirms the success of our brands\u2019 demand generation efforts and the amazing experiences we continue to deliver, driving excess demand and ongoing pricing strength. With nearly half of 2026 booked, which is in line with 2025 record levels (at the same time last year) but now at historical high prices (in constant currency) for both our North America and Europe segments, we have built a strong base of business for next year.<\/p>\n Looking further ahead, 2027 is already off to a great start, achieving record booking volumes during the third quarter.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a009.36 EDT<\/p>\n While Emma Walmsley\u2019s departure from GSK<\/a> will cut the number of female FTSE 100 CEOs, the City of London is also getting its first Lady Mayor.<\/p>\n Alderwoman Dame Susan Langley DBE has today been elected as the 697th Lord Mayor of London, succeeding Alderman Alastair King.<\/p>\n She will be the third woman in the City of London Corporation\u2019s history to hold the office \u2013 and the first to use the title \u201cLady Mayor\u201d.<\/p>\n Dame Susan is promising a \u2018Modern Mayoralty\u2019, with a focus on:<\/p>\n Global Leadership: Maintaining London\u2019s position as the world\u2019s leading financial and professional services hub.<\/p>\n Reputation: Strengthening the standing of the Square Mile, the City Corporation, and the UK on the world stage.<\/p>\n Business Growth: Championing conditions that enable companies to thrive.<\/p>\n Social Impact: Ensuring the City makes a positive contribution to wider society and offers opportunities to all.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Bank of England’s Ramsden sees inflation falling to target as jobs market weakens<\/p>\n Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden has warned that that Britain\u2019s jobs market had weakened and wage growth was normalising.<\/p>\n While those two factors are both bad news for workers, they\u2019re encouraging for central bankers \u2013 it means Ramsden is confident that inflation would fall back to the BoE\u2019s target.<\/p>\n Speaking on a panel discussion organised by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Ramsden says (via Reuters):<\/p>\n \u201cWe have seen the labour market continuing to loosen with wage growth normalising and I see that as supporting a continuation of the core disinflation process. And that anchors my view on the inflation outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n Ramsden was one of the seven Bank policymakers who voted to leave interest rates on hold earlier this month, when there were two votes to cut rates.<\/p>\n He has been seen as one of the more dovish members of the committee.<\/p>\n Inflation was last clocked at 3.8%, almost double the Bank\u2019s target.<\/p>\n Recruitment data provider Adzuna has reported today that the UK jobs market is \u201ccooling, not collapsing\u201d, with graduates fresh from university likely to be hit by a slowdown in hiring.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.50 EDT<\/p>\n Electronic Arts to be taken private in $55bn deal with PIF, Silver Lake<\/p>\n Big news in the gaming industry: Videogame publisher Electronic Arts has agreed to be taken private by a consortium consisting of private equity firm Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia\u2019s Public Investment Fund and Affinity Partners in a $55bn deal.<\/p>\n Under the deal, EA shareholders will receive $210 per share in cash, representing a premium of 25% as of the company\u2019s closing share price on September 25 before reports of a deal emerged.<\/p>\n EA are the publisher of several massive, popular computer game franchises, from the FIFA (now FC) football games to The Sims, American football game Madden NFL, and first-person shooters Medal of Honor and Battlefield.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Goldman Sachs: Five reasons to worry about UK’s fiscal position<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs have taken a critical look at the UK public finances ahead of the autumn budget.<\/p>\n They warn, in a new research note, that the UK fiscal position looks challenging relative to other advanced economies, for five reasons:<\/p>\n First, public debt now stands towards the upper end of the range among advanced economies.<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs explains:<\/p>\n The UK saw one of the largest spikes in the debt-to-GDP ratio after Covid, reflecting generous policy intervention and a sharp drop in economic activity. As a result, gross public debt (as measured by the IMF) is now at 101% of GDP, which is historically high outside of major wars and meaningfully exceeded only by Italy (135%) and France (115%) in Europe, Japan (237%) and the US (121%).<\/p>\n Secondly, the public deficit is high:<\/p>\n In 2024, the UK had the third-highest deficit at 5.7% of GDP among European countries, and the fifth-highest among 36 advanced economies, surpassed only by the US, France, Slovakia and Israel. The deficit is also elevated on a \u201cstructural\u201d basis\u2014excluding interest payments and the effects of the cycle\u2014which the government has struggled to reduce meaningfully since Covid.<\/p>\n The UK\u2019s accounting of the BoE\u2019s QT losses, moreover, will put additional upward pressure on public debt in coming years.<\/p>\n Third, borrowing costs are high relative to growth.<\/p>\n While UK growth has been broadly similar to other advanced economies, inflation has remained notably higher than elsewhere. As a result, the Bank of England has lowered the policy rate more slowly and Bank Rate remains in restrictive territory. This adverse macro mix implies that the UK faces one of the highest interest rate\/growth differentials across advanced economies\u2014often referred to as \u201cr-g\u201d\u2014which plays a key role in the assessment of debt sustainability.<\/p>\n Fourth, the UK has one of the highest current account deficits across advanced economies.<\/p>\n Goldman says:<\/p>\n While not directly relevant for the dynamics of public debt, research<\/a> shows that large \u201ctwin\u201d deficits have historically been associated with fiscal crises, with markets requiring a larger term premium in countries that run large current account deficits.<\/p>\n Fifth, the structure of UK debt has become more unfavourable:<\/p>\n The UK retains a large share of inflation-linked debt, with the proportion of linkers rising from 10% in the late 1980s to 25% now (twice as high as the next advanced economy, Italy, with 12%). As a result, UK debt dynamics have been more exposed to high inflation than in other economies in recent years.<\/p>\n BUT it\u2019s not all bad. Goldman point to a number of factors that mitigate the UK\u2019s fiscal vulnerability compared with other advanced countries. They include the UK\u2019s \u201cstrong fiscal institutions\u201d, the government\u2019s fiscal rule, and its \u201clong and encouraging track record of fiscal consolidation\u201d\u2026.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Gold hits $3,800 per ounce as rally continues<\/p>\n The gold price has surged over the $3,800 per ounce mark for the first time today.<\/p>\n The spot price of gold is up 1.5% at $3,819 per ounce, meaning the precious metal\u2019s value has jumped 45% so far this year, on track for its strongest annual gains since 1979.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s rally is being credited to expectations of a U.S. rate cut and concerns about a potential government shutdown.<\/p>\n I\u2019ve looked at some of the other factors here:<\/p>\n Paul Williams, managing director of Solomon Global, now envisions $4,000\/oz being hit by the end of this year, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cGold has increased almost $400 since August 22nd, supported by numerous factors including a softening US dollar, inflation concerns, anticipated additional rate cuts from the Fed, declining confidence in risk assets, ongoing geopolitical flashpoints and continued accumulation by central banks.<\/p>\n These dynamics and this momentum look set to remain, putting gold on a trajectory that makes $4000 by Christmas a strong possibility.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n A new healthcheck on UK borrowing shows that people are taking out more credit, as demand for new home loans fades a little.<\/p>\n The Bank of England has reported that UK consumer borrowing rose at the fastest pace since October 2024 in the 12 months to the end of August.<\/p>\n Net consumer borrowing rose by \u00a31.692bn, up from \u00a31.669bn in July.<\/p>\n Net mortgage approvals for house purchases decreased by 500 in August, to 64,700. Approvals for remortgaging decreased by 900 in August, to 37,900.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Today\u2019s announcement that some JLR manufacturing will resume soon comes almost a week after the company extended the production pause until at least 1 October.<\/p>\n The cyber-attack has impacting its factories in Halewood, on Merseyside, and Solihull in the West Midlands, and its engine manufacturing site in Wolverhampton.<\/p>\n Experts have warned the production shutdown could hit the group\u2019s bottom line by at least \u00a3120m, with the firm thought to usually build about 1,000 cars a day.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>JLR: some sections of our manufacturing operations will resume in coming days.<\/p>\n Newsflash: Jaguar Land Rover has announced that \u201csome sections\u201d of its carmaking operations will restart \u201cin the coming days\u201d.<\/p>\n In a new statement, two days after the government underwrote a \u00a31.5bn loan guarantee for <\/a>JLR<\/a>, the UK\u2019s largest carmaker insists that the \u201cfoundational work\u201d of its recovery is firmly underway.<\/p>\n However, we don\u2019t know exactly which parts of JLR\u2019s factory output will restart first.<\/p>\n JLR says:<\/p>\n As the controlled, phased restart of our operations continues, we are taking further steps towards our recovery and the return to manufacture of our world\u2011class vehicles. <\/p>\n Today we are informing colleagues, retailers and suppliers that some sections of our manufacturing operations will resume in the coming days.<\/p>\n We continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the UK Government\u2019s NCSC and law enforcement to ensure our restart is done in a safe and secure manner. <\/p>\n We would like to thank everyone connected with JLR for their continued patience, understanding and support. We know there is much more to do but the foundational work of our recovery is firmly underway, and we will continue to provide updates as we progress.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.45 EDT<\/p>\n Reeves cool on standalone wealth tax<\/p>\n It\u2019s a busy day for chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is due to address the Labour party conference in Liverpool today.<\/p>\n Reeves has held a series of interviews \u2013 and has told Bloomberg that she doesn\u2019t support calls for a wealth tax to be included in her autumn budget.<\/p>\n Reeves argues<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cWe already have taxes on wealthy people; I don\u2019t think we need a standalone wealth tax.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m not even sure it would work.\u201d<\/p>\n [Reeves\u2019s esteemed predecessor, Denis Healey, came to a similar conclusion in the 1970s, judging it was impossible to draft a wealth tax \u201cwhich would yield enough revenue to be worth the administrative cost and political hassle\u201d<\/a>)<\/p>\n Reeves has also tried to play down reports that she would need to put up taxes by about \u00a330bn in the budget, while insisting that much of the speculation about possible tax rises in budget is \u2018rubbish\u2019.<\/p>\n Our Politics Live blog has more details:<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a006.06 EDT<\/p>\n Eurozone economic sentiment improves in September<\/p>\n Over in the eurozone, economic sentiment has improved despite weakening confidence in the jobs market.<\/p>\n The European Commission\u2019s eurozone economic sentiment indicator has inched up to 95.5 points this month, up from 95.3 in August. That suggests a little more confidence about the economic outlook, after a summer in which the EU struck a trade deal with the US.<\/p>\n However, the eurozone Employment Expectations Indicator dipped by 1.3 points this month, to 96.4, further below the long-term average of 100.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>FTSE 100 heading towards record high<\/p>\n GSK (+3%) and AstraZeneca (+0.8%) are helping to push the London stock market towards a new peak.<\/p>\n The FTSE 100 index has gained 48 points, or 0.5%, this morning to 9333 points \u2013 not far from the alltime high of 9,357 set in late August.<\/p>\n The stock market is also benefitting from encouraging US economic data last Friday, which showed US personal spending growing while price pressures were unchanged.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a005.01 EDT<\/p>\n \u201cIt can never be great for a CEO\u2019s ego when a share price goes up on news of their departure, but that\u2019s what has happened to GSK chief executive Emma Walmsley this morning,\u201d points out AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.<\/p>\n Mould points out that GSK has lagged behind AstraZeneca for shareholder returns on Walmsley\u2019s watch:<\/p>\n \u201cWalmsley has been patiently leading a turnaround of the pharmaceutical giant almost ever since she took over in 2017 and she can point to real evidence of progress, including the spin-off of consumer health arm Haleon.<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, litigation issues over Zantac and setbacks for its vaccine business \u2013 notably GSK was considered to have much more vaccine expertise than rival AstraZeneca before the pandemic \u2013 have held the business back.<\/p>\n \u201cUsing the ultimate arbiter, GSK has achieved a total return of around 30% since Walmsley took charge compared with more than 180% for AstraZeneca. In this context there may be some eyebrows raised at an internal appointment being selected to take over in the form of current chief commercial officer Luke Miels, particularly given his tenure largely matches his current boss.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile it may not be reflected in the share price, Miels could be grateful in the longer term for the progress Walmsley has made in the background.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Interactive investor: Walmsley’s leadership a success, share price less so<\/p>\n Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says the news that Dame Emma Walmsley is stepping down as CEO of GSK has taken investors by surprise.<\/p>\n The 3.5% jump in GSK\u2019s share price this morning suggests the City is \u2018excited\u2019 by the appointment of chief commercial officer Luke Miels as her replacement, Scholar adds:<\/p>\n Walmsley has been at the helm since 1st April 2017 and her leadership has largely been judged as a success story. She navigated GSK through the challenges of the pandemic and successfully delivered its consumer health division\u2019s spin-off into a standalone company, Haleon. Walmsley has also been in charge during a stretch when GSK has achieved a number of drug breakthroughs such as Arexvy (an RSV vaccine) and she has endeavoured to make AI and cutting edge technology central to GSK\u2019s strategy. She also became the first woman to become CEO of a pharma giant.<\/p>\n However Walmsley has also faced a number of challenges not least with US litigation over its heartburn drug Zantac and an mRNA patent dispute with Pfizer and BioNTech. She also faced activist investor opposition from US hedge fund Elliott Management in 2021.<\/p>\n While there\u2019s a vast amount to cheer when it comes to Walmsley\u2019s leadership, shares haven\u2019t performed so well, down around 10% since she took up the top job. And the stock is reacting positively today, suggesting investors are excited by the change in leadership.<\/p>\n