{"id":589919,"date":"2026-09-04T12:20:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T12:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/589919\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T12:20:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T12:20:14","slug":"the-missing-workers-are-not-where-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/589919\/","title":{"rendered":"The Missing Workers Are Not Where You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!0R9f!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5db2c916-d835-4261-b8bb-9f7248c6b986_1996x1074.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5db2c916-d835-4261-b8bb-9f7248c6b986_1996.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"783\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/5db2c916-d835-4261-b8bb-9f7248c6b986_1996x1074.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:783,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3171215,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com\/i\/214130218?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5db2c916-d835-4261-b8bb-9f7248c6b986_1996x1074.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The US labour force participation rate has fallen by a full percentage point since December 2025, which at first glance looks like another timber cracking beneath the labour market. Fewer people working or looking for work can be an early sign that job seekers are becoming discouraged, hiring opportunities are drying up and the economic floorboards are beginning to sag.<\/p>\n<p>Takeaways by Dark Side of the Boom\u2122<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels estimates that roughly 0.8 percentage points of the 1-percentage-point participation decline since December reflect revisions, demographic composition, residual seasonality, and sampling bias.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the statistical drag should reverse later this year as youth seasonality turns positive and volatile household survey samples rotate out.<\/p>\n<p>Most of the genuine increase in the number of people outside the labour force reflects college graduates over 55 retiring, rather than discouraged workers abandoning unsuccessful job searches.<\/p>\n<p>Slower labour supply growth reduces the payroll pace required to keep unemployment stable, meaning a modest jobs number may not provide the dovish signal markets expect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The US labour force participation rate has fallen by a full percentage point since December 2025, which at&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":589920,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-589919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=589919"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589919\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/589920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=589919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=589919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=589919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}