Those effects are already showing up in Central and South America.<\/p>\n
Ecuadorian fishing boats have found that they have to go farther from shore to make their catch as the fish move to cooler zones. Enrique Ortiz\/AFP via Getty Images<\/a>.<\/p>\n Fishing crews in Ecuador are catching fewer tuna and traveling farther<\/a> from shore to find them as fish migrate to cooler water. Coral reefs are under alert for severe risk of bleaching<\/a> in many areas.<\/p>\n In Panama, where I live, seabirds common to Ecuador and Peru known as blue-footed boobies began showing up in large numbers in Panama<\/a> earlier than usual as the sardines and anchovies they eat moved northward to escape the El Ni\u00f1o ocean heat.<\/p>\n Farmers in some regions of Panama have been unable to plant their crops<\/a>. And many people here are worried about access to drinking water in the coming dry season, normally January to April but predicted to arrive at least a month earlier than usual.<\/p>\n Blue-footed boobies, common to Peru and Ecuador, began showing up in large numbers in Panama in early summer. That isn\u2019t normal. Bernard Gagnon via Wikimedia Commons<\/a>, CC BY<\/a>.<\/p>\n The global economy is also beginning to see far-reaching effects. Worsening drought is reducing the amount of water needed to operate the Panama Canal, resulting in fewer ships with less cargo able to pass through in a day<\/a>. That leads to higher transit costs for shippers of all kinds of products and slower deliveries.<\/p>\n I am a biologist<\/a> who has been monitoring the weather in Panama and surrounding regions for the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute<\/a> for almost 40 years. That includes major climatic events such as El Ni\u00f1o, and what I am seeing in Panama in 2026 in terms of heat and drought has already begun to exceed anything that we have measured here in over a century.<\/p>\n What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a naturally occurring phenomenon<\/a> that can affect weather around the world<\/a>. Its origin lies in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n Normally, trade winds along the equator blow from east to west in this region, pushing warm surface water toward the islands of southeast Asia, where it accumulates.<\/p>\n What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n The first sign that El Ni\u00f1o is developing is a weakening, or even reversal, of the tropical Pacific trade winds<\/a>. Without the winds, warm water in the east begins to flow back and eventually occupies much of the equatorial waters down to about 300 meters from the coast of South America to the middle of the Pacific.<\/p>\n That shift sets off a chain of changes in weather patterns around the world.<\/p>\n What can El Ni\u00f1o do to \u2013 or for \u2013 you?<\/p>\n According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> (NOAA), as well as many other national<\/a> and international climate authorities<\/a>, the earth and its inhabitants can expect one of the warmest, if not the hottest, years on record both in 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n Global ocean temperatures are already at record highs<\/a>, raising concerns about the compounding effects of El Ni\u00f1o and global warming effects on corals and other sea life<\/a>, particularly along the west coast of the Americas and Australia.<\/p>\n Global sea surface temperatures in September 2026 were at their highest in over four decades. The next three warmest years were 2023, 2024 and 2025. The year 2026 is in red; 2025 is in orange. Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine<\/a>, CC BY<\/a>.<\/p>\n Some of the wettest regions on the planet, including southeast Asia, Australia, northern South America, Central America and the Caribbean, are expected to experience severe droughts this year<\/a>.<\/p>\n Places that are normally extremely dry, such as the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, may face strong storms with the potential for life-threatening floods.<\/p>\n Why it\u2019s hard to forecast El Ni\u00f1o and its effects<\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/a> \u2013 the climate system that swings between warm El Ni\u00f1o and cooler La Ni\u00f1a conditions every few years \u2013 like many things in nature, is extremely complex. Scientists have been studying it for generations, and many things about it are still not fully understood.<\/p>\n Forecasters, such as NOAA, use many different computer models to help predict how complex systems like this will unfold. Each model differs in the details of how they make their predictions, and the average of the models forms the basis of the predictions presented to the public.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n It is important to understand that these are best estimates based on the available knowledge and understanding.<\/p>\n Every El Ni\u00f1o is different. They can vary significantly between one event and another both in timing and impact. Each El Ni\u00f1o seems to include some unexpected results, especially regarding where droughts and floods appear. Some effects, such as drought in Central America and global air temperature spikes, are almost guaranteed. Others, such as heavy rainfall on the U.S. West Coast, are more variable. For example, the 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, one of the strongest on record, brought little relief to drought-stricken California.<\/p>\n So, do not assume that what usually happens at your location during El Ni\u00f1o will happen this time.<\/p>\n The super, mega El Ni\u00f1o of 2026-27<\/p>\n To gauge the intensity of an El Ni\u00f1o event, scientists look at the temperatures in the middle of the equatorial Pacific in a region known as Ni\u00f1o 3.4<\/a>.<\/p>\n The intensity of an El Ni\u00f1o event is defined as the current or expected sea surface temperatures in that region minus the long-term average. A very strong event is considered to have a value of at least 2 Celsius \u2013 meaning it\u2019s 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In the past century, two El Ni\u00f1o events stand out \u2013 1982-83<\/a> and 2015-16<\/a> \u2013 each with values close to 2.6 C (4.7 F).<\/p>\n Predictions for the current event include from around 3 C to almost 4 C (5.4 \u2013 7.2 F), potentially placing it well above anything that has occurred in at least 150 years, and likely much longer<\/a>.<\/p>\n This matters to the global economy<\/p>\n The influences of El Ni\u00f1o should raise global alarms for economies as well.<\/p>\n The Panama Canal is one of the world\u2019s most important shipping choke points, particularly for ships traveling to and from the U.S. It relies exclusively on fresh water from rivers pouring into Lake Gatun to operate its system of locks<\/a>, which act like elevators \u2013 filling with water to lift each ship 85 feet (26 meters) from sea level to the lake and then back down to sea level on the other side. The canal saves days of travel time and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel costs<\/a> as ships travel between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.<\/p>\n Panama is normally so rainy that the locks can function at full capacity throughout the year. During droughts, however, the lake levels can begin to fall even during the rainy season when they should be going up.<\/p>\n Once lake levels are no longer safe for the largest ships to pass, the Panama Canal Authority, the agency in charge of the canal, begins to restrict their maximum draft, meaning how deep into the water the ships sink when loaded. Even before then, it starts to reduce the number of ships<\/a> that can pass each day in order to save water.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Previous major El Ni\u00f1os have resulted in significant interruptions to the canal\u2019s operations<\/a>. This year is no exception. The Panama Canal Authority has already begun to restrict the number and size of ships<\/a> allowed to pass in 2026. As El Ni\u00f1o intensifies, these limits will only become tighter.<\/p>\n As what could be the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record develops, families, communities and economies need to prepare. Local areas may see more intense effects than expected, or they may see different effects than in past El Ni\u00f1os. The best preparation is to be ready for the worst and pay attention to the forecasts. *Steven Paton<\/a>, Research Biologist, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian Institution<\/a>. This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Steven Paton* El Ni\u00f1o is here, and forecasters warn that it\u2019s likely to be bigger and stronger…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":598320,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[273,111,139,69,147],"class_list":["post-598319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Fishermen](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/file-20260909-50-wystcb.jpg\")
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