{"id":599371,"date":"2026-09-13T19:36:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T19:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/599371\/"},"modified":"2026-09-13T19:36:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T19:36:09","slug":"gdp-preview-iran-conflict-stalled-growth-but-how-badly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/599371\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP Preview: Iran conflict stalled growth but how badly?"},"content":{"rendered":"\u201cThis is stronger than our previous estimate of a 0.1% contraction and the RBNZ\u2019s flat quarterly estimate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cGDP data has been volatile quarter to quarter and there are two-sided risks to our call.\u201d<\/p>\n
ASB expects growth to be concentrated in primary and goods-producing sectors.<\/p>\n
\u201cIronically, these sectors are more fuel-intensive,\u201d Tanuvasa said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, robust global demand for our exports and the construction sector coming off a low base should help offset this.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the downside, ASB expects household spending declined in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said he expected a 0.2% rise in June quarter GDP, \u201cwith the economy weathering the oil shock better than hoped\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cRetail spending, particularly on hospitality, was the most visible casualty of the Middle East conflict, as higher fuel prices squeezed household budgets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But other sectors such as construction, wholesaling and agriculture had continued to benefit from the growth-supportive factors that were already in place, such as the still-low level of interest rates and strong demand for key exports.<\/p>\n
Gordon noted that a stronger lift than forecast by the RBNZ could \u201cassuage some committee members\u2019 concerns about downside risks to growth\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn balance we think they will be more attuned to the upcoming inflation data to decide their next move,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
At BNZ, senior economist Doug Steel is also picking 0.2% growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cGDP still looks relatively subdued, but it now might come with a positive hue rather than a negative one driven by the primary sector, goods producing, construction, and wholesale trade sectors,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In contrast, there were question marks around consumer-focused sectors like retail trade.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile retail sales volumes are higher than a year ago, additional intense inflationary pressure from higher fuel costs slowed its annual growth in [the second quarter].\u201d<\/p>\n
Steel warned that quarterly GDP data was often volatile.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe know there will be significant revisions when GDP is released next Thursday, so it will pay to look at the annual result, perhaps more so than the quarter, to get a better sense of recent developments,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith this in mind, our annual pick of 2.4% growth will be our major point of comparison.\u201d<\/p>\n
ANZ and Kiwibank economists are both picking growth of just 0.1%.<\/p>\n
This would correspond to a 2.2% annual growth rate from June 2025 to June 2026, said Kiwibank economist Elliot Lowe.<\/p>\n
That equated to a 1.6% annual average growth rate (Stats NZ\u2019s preferred measure of annual GDP growth), he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe June quarter of 2026 was tough. Tough on businesses. Tough on households,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fragile economic recovery that began to spark in late 2025 and early 2026 was extinguished by soaring oil prices. But we see evidence that the September quarter is laying the kindling which will see a reignition of the recovery later this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
ANZ\u2019s Matthew Galt also saw positive signs ahead for the recovery.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe good news is that the evidence is building that the stall in [the second quarter] was temporary.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigh-frequency activity indicators have improved subsequently, and our Business Outlook survey paints a picture of firms who are keen to get on with things despite a volatile global backdrop.\u201d<\/p>\n
ANZ card spend data also suggested that the pull-back in travel spending was short-lived, he said.<\/p>\n
ANZ economists continue to forecast a 25bp hike to the Official Cash Rate in October.<\/p>\n
However, the call came with less conviction than it did before the September MPS, Galt said.<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cThis is stronger than our previous estimate of a 0.1% contraction and the RBNZ\u2019s flat quarterly estimate,\u201d he…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":599372,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[11425,3246,138,3013,6150,3105,10668,219,12410,3499,221,16609,111,139,69,13692,295510,295511,13183,4525,89272,28050,1533],"class_list":["post-599371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-badly","tag-both","tag-business","tag-but","tag-conflict","tag-data","tag-economic","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-growth","tag-how","tag-iran","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-offer","tag-optimists","tag-pessimists","tag-preview","tag-something","tag-stalled","tag-thursday","tag-will"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=599371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/599372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=599371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=599371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=599371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}