{"id":599807,"date":"2026-09-14T06:40:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T06:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/599807\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T06:40:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T06:40:11","slug":"ncea-replacement-14930-level-2-students-could-miss-out-under-reforms-new-research-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/599807\/","title":{"rendered":"NCEA replacement: 14,930 Level 2 students could miss out under reforms, new research finds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Berl modelling found 14,930 students who achieved Level 2 in 2025, almost a third of successful students, could be exposed under a more prescribed, subject-based system.<\/p>\n

Of the 64,403 Year 12 students included in the analysis, 46,165, or 71.7%, achieved NCEA Level 2 last year.<\/p>\n

Another 18,238 did not achieve the qualification.<\/p>\n

Berl said the 14,930 students at risk under the new approach, or 32.3% of students who gained Level 2 that year, had enough credits to pass but their credits did not fall neatly across at least three recognised subjects.<\/p>\n

Under the proposed system, students would need to pass at least three individual subjects, such as English, maths or science.<\/p>\n

Schools face multimillion-dollar implementation bill<\/p>\n

Berl estimated the changes could cost between $49.2m and $57.8m to implement across 487 secondary schools.<\/p>\n

Most of that cost, between 70% and 74%, would come from hiring relief teachers to cover staff working on the changes. The estimate did not include additional costs, such as teacher training and IT changes.<\/p>\n

The report said small and rural schools could be hit harder because they had fewer staff and resources to take on the extra work. <\/p>\n

\"NewNew modelling raises concerns about how the Government\u2019s proposed NCEA replacement may affect students who thrive in flexible and practical learning pathways. Photo \/ 123rf<\/p>\n

Rural schools could also struggle to find enough relief teachers.<\/p>\n

Schools in more disadvantaged communities faced what Berl described as a \u201cdouble pressure\u201d. They had the highest proportion of students potentially at risk under the reforms, at 55.9%, while having fewer resources to make the required changes.<\/p>\n

Berl recommended extra funding and staffing support for schools that would struggle most with the transition. <\/p>\n

It also called for vocational, project-based and culturally grounded learning pathways to be protected.<\/p>\n

Without that support, the report warned the reforms could widen existing inequalities in education.<\/p>\n

M\u0101ori and Pacific students face greater risk<\/p>\n

Almost half of M\u0101ori students who achieved Level 2 in 2025 were identified as potentially at risk. <\/p>\n

That included 4423 M\u0101ori students, or 48.1% of M\u0101ori achievers.<\/p>\n

For Pacific students, 2359, or 42.6%, fell into the same category.<\/p>\n

That compared with 30.5% of European achievers and 22.4% of Asian students.<\/p>\n

The differences were more pronounced when schools were grouped by the barriers their students faced.<\/p>\n

\"AlmostAlmost 15,000 students who achieved NCEA Level 2 in 2025 have been identified as potentially \u201cexposed\u201d under a more prescribed qualification system. <\/p>\n

At schools serving communities with fewer socioeconomic barriers, 18.4% of Level 2 achievers were potentially exposed.<\/p>\n

Papakura High School principal Simon Craggs said he had been concerned since the new qualification was announced that it would put young people who could succeed under NCEA at risk.<\/p>\n

He said students at schools serving communities facing greater socioeconomic barriers were likely to be hardest hit, particularly by greater reliance on external exams.<\/p>\n

Craggs said his school would have to overhaul its timetable and many existing courses could no longer run because they combined standards from different subject areas.<\/p>\n

He supported addressing inconsistencies between some industry and achievement standards, which he said had undermined NCEA\u2019s credibility, but believed this could have been achieved without replacing the qualification entirely.<\/p>\n

Why the Government says NCEA needs to change<\/p>\n

Education Minister Erica Stanford has argued NCEA has become overly complicated and encouraged \u201ccredit chasing\u201d, where the focus can be on securing enough credits to pass rather than gaining a strong understanding of a subject.<\/p>\n

A main issue identified under NCEA was that schools could offer thousands of vocational standards, which were not always taken as part of a coherent programme. <\/p>\n

Students could also use individual standards to top up their credit totals.<\/p>\n

The Government believes the overhaul will give parents, employers and universities a clearer idea of what a student has studied and achieved.<\/p>\n

\"EducationEducation Minister Erica Stanford is changing secondary school qualifications because she says NCEA has become overly complicated. Photo \/ Mark Mitchell <\/p>\n

It also wants assessment more closely tied to the national curriculum, with clearer expectations about the knowledge students should have in each subject.<\/p>\n

Stronger literacy and numeracy requirements are also part of the changes, while the Government says vocational and industry-based subjects will continue to provide alternatives to traditional academic subjects.<\/p>\n

Under the new system, students will have to study at least five subjects each year and pass at least three to gain a qualification.<\/p>\n

The Ministry of Education is working with Industry Skill Boards to develop subjects focusing on specific industries, backed by $15m in Budget 2026 funding.<\/p>\n

Rachel Maher is the education correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. She also covers other topics such as Auckland issues, crime and local government. She started at the Herald as a breaking news journalist in 2022, before joining the Auckland team this year. <\/p>\n

Sign up to The Daily H<\/a>, a free newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Berl modelling found 14,930 students who achieved Level 2 in 2025, almost a third of successful students, could…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":599808,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[295675,124,7123,11424,3014,7237,305,25449,14574,14153,36089,11692,117,111,43,139,69,3111,34540,59609,8263,2853,1518,7235,3767,30947,6211,3755,8238,6730],"class_list":["post-599807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-295675","tag-could","tag-current","tag-finds","tag-gain","tag-governments","tag-have","tag-level","tag-miss","tag-modelling","tag-ncea","tag-nearly","tag-new","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-out","tag-passed","tag-qualification","tag-reforms","tag-replacement","tag-research","tag-struggle","tag-students","tag-suggests","tag-system","tag-third","tag-under","tag-would"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=599807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/599808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=599807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=599807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=599807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}