{"id":600967,"date":"2026-09-15T10:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T10:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/600967\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T10:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T10:00:23","slug":"back-on-track-why-this-economist-believes-nz-is-bouncing-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/600967\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Back on track\u2019: Why this economist believes NZ is bouncing back"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ, & Garth Bray, Business journalist and host of Herald NOW Business at NZME, & Lee-Ann Morris, CEO at MBM<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recovery is back on,\u201d heralds ANZ\u2019s chief economist Sharon Zollner \u2013 albeit with a warning that \u201cuncertainty is the new normal\u201d<\/p>\n

\n New Zealand\u2019s economy is \u201cback on track\u201d after a lengthy downturn, ANZ\u2019s chief economist says \u2013 but the good news comes with a caveat that \u201cuncertainty is the
\n new normal\u201d.\n <\/p>\n

Speaking at a recent event held by Publicis Groupe for business and marketing leaders in central Auckland, Sharon Zollner told attendees that Kiwis still \u201cdon\u2019t really feel their fate is entirely in their own hands\u201d amid \u201ca pretty volatile global environment\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"Lee-AnnLee-Ann Morris, CEO MBM, welcomes attendees to the event<\/p>\n

But with discretionary spending on the rise, she says it seems New Zealand businesses and households have decided to \u201cjust get on with it\u201d in the acknowledgement that \u201cthis is the world today\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recovery is back on, and left well enough alone will be fine,\u201d said Zollner. \u201cI just have some concerns that we may not be left well enough alone.\u201d<\/p>\n

Zollner\u2019s comments came in a conversation with Herald NOW Business host Garth Bray at the Publicis event, held in partnership with NZME. The pair discussed New Zealand\u2019s economic outlook, market trends, inflation pressures, and the forces shaping business decisions.<\/p>\n

\"SharonSharon Zollner & Garth Bray lead Q+A<\/p>\n

Top of mind was the ongoing Middle East conflict, the effects of which have pushed up fuel, fertiliser and transport prices, contributing to inflation both here and abroad.<\/p>\n

Zollner said the hit to New Zealand\u2019s GDP in the recession looks \u201cpretty similar\u201d to what t the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), but that data was now clearly signalling a recovery \u2013 though she acknowledged pockets of the economy were bouncing back better than others.<\/p>\n

The retail sector had endured \u201ca pretty torrid time\u201d, she said, while small businesses more generally continued to struggle, including with IRD debts. Beer breweries and wineries were performing poorly too, their markets shrinking as young people opted for alternatives.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, though, the economy had bounced back well. Winners include farmers, with meat prices booming, dairy prices below peak levels but \u201cstill doing really well\u201d, and the apple and kiwifruit industries thriving.<\/p>\n

Agriculture and tourism have been \u201ca real success story\u201d, Zollner added. Heavily exposed to both industries, the South Island has been largely enjoying \u201chappy days\u201d \u2013 but even the North Island is \u201cin much better shape\u201d compared with 18 months ago.<\/p>\n

\"(L-R)(L-R) Louise Ruegg, Head of Delivery at Digitas NZ, & Kevin McKeever at Toyota Finance NZ, & Nicola Montgomery at Vero Insurance, & Marc Touchette at Toyota Finance NZ, & Campbell Hodgetts at Vero Insurance, & Chris Brunner, Head of Creative Experience at Digitas NZ<\/p>\n

\u201c[For] large businesses, and in commercial property and agriculture, bad loans have all actually been falling for the last couple of years,\u201d said Zollner. \u201cSo in that regard, we have a pretty clean slate to go again and invest and employ if we have the confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

A lot of focus right now is on migration, Zollner said, particularly net outflows to Australia amid their strong labour market. While it\u2019s not unusual to see people coming and going from New Zealand, she says it\u2019s \u201cgetting harder and harder\u201d to stop Kiwis moving across the Tasman.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe minerals boom since 2008 has made the Australian fiscal position pretty good,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve been able to recycle that into infrastructure and education and healthcare and all these nice things that boost productivity \u2013 and their real wages are pulling away from ours, so it\u2019s not easy.<\/p>\n

\"(L-R):(L-R): Prathima Chowdary, Founder at E-leviate, & Sarah Ansley-Jones, Head of Growth & Operations at Saatchi & Saatchi NZ<\/p>\n

\u201cOf course, we also had changes that made it easier for New Zealanders to move to Australia and settle down there. But it\u2019s become a bit of a political issue in Australia now, the strong inward migration, so that door may start to close again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another notable market trend \u2013 or rather, the lack of one \u2013 was house prices, which Zollner said \u201chave been going nowhere\u201d amid a soft market. She expects that to continue.<\/p>\n

\u201cPart of the story is that we have actually kept building quite a lot of houses, a lot of townhouses \u2013 that\u2019s the real difference between the trough in residential construction after the GFC and the trough now,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut despite the higher activity through the slowdown versus last time the drop from peak to trough has still been quite ferocious because we had the most insane construction boom ever \u2013 so that explains the pain.\u201d<\/p>\n

While houses remain significantly less affordable than the early 1990s when \u201cyoung people could afford to buy them\u201d, it is now much easier than it was at the peak of the market, she says.<\/p>\n

Houses are now just 2.4 times more expensive relative to income than they were in the early \u201890s, compared to a high of 3.5 times, \u201cso we\u2019ll take the win,\u201d says Zollner.<\/p>\n

\"(L-R)(L-R) Natalie Davis from Hato Hone St John, & Robyn Rowley from Hato Hone St John, & Lee-Ann Morris, CEO at MBM<\/p>\n

\u201cI wouldn\u2019t say we\u2019ve solved housing affordability, but to undo the recent damage in such an orderly way is an absolute win,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that the Reserve Bank\u2019s Financial Stability Report is boring: [we] dodged a bullet there, people. I mean, house prices literally went exponential \u2013 they went up 50% in two years from levels that people already thought were too high. Nobody does that on purpose, that was not the plan.\u201d<\/p>\n

Zollner said overall, she\u2019s \u201cquite optimistic\u201d about New Zealand\u2019s economic future.<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly in a cyclical sense, I think the building blocks are in place for a recovery; structurally, obviously, we\u2019ve got some issues \u2013 our productivity growth is pretty poor,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut I do think being really, really good at growing necessities, growing food, is a pretty good bet in this world. You look at the new food pyramid and it\u2019s high proteins, healthy fats \u2013 and we\u2019re like, \u2018yeah, bring it on, we can help you with that\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

Listen to ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner\u2019s full conversation with Garth Bray here:<\/p>\n

www.publicisgroupeanz.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Save<\/a>Share this articleCopy LinkEmailFacebookTwitter\/XLinkedInReddit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ, & Garth Bray, Business journalist and host of Herald NOW Business at…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":600968,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[48726,18464,1863,29385,77630,138,3937,3914,219,30689,185,111,139,12909,69,90,1881,1440,1361,223,1961,22974,5619,1455,4276,102,77760],"class_list":["post-600967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-albeit","tag-anzs","tag-back","tag-believes","tag-bouncing","tag-business","tag-chief","tag-economist","tag-economy","tag-heralds","tag-is","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-normal","tag-nz","tag-on","tag-recovery","tag-sharon","tag-that","tag-the","tag-this","tag-track","tag-uncertainty","tag-warning","tag-why","tag-with","tag-zollner"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=600967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/600968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=600967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=600967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=600967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}