US housing starts fell<\/a> and to their slowest pace since 2019, with the exceptions of the sharp and unusual May dip, and the pandemic. That was matched by low building consent levels, so the easing off in this homebuilding sector will continue.<\/p>\n The regional Philly Fed factory survey<\/a> for the important Pennsylvanian rust belt region was expected to fall in September from August and it did, but not by as much as expected. New orders and shipments remained elevated, while the employment index declined but stayed positive, signaling continued job growth. Both input and output price indicators moved higher and at a faster pace.<\/p>\n US pending home sales<\/a> were down -4.7% in August from a year ago, but at least they did manager to level-peg from July.<\/p>\n There was a US 10 year TIPS bond auction<\/a> overnight which delivered a median yield of 2.58% (high 2.65%), which is a notable rise from the 2.37% at the prior equivalent event<\/a> a month ago. Although not as dramatic as the -17% fall off in demand for yesterday’s 20 year bond, this auction attracted lower demand as well, -12% less.<\/p>\n And we should probably note that Chinese president Xi will be visiting the US next week and there is a frenzy of advanced negotiations underway in preparation so that both he and Trump can announce something ‘substantial’ and worth the visit. What will be interesting will be the moves after the event glad-handling.<\/p>\n In Canada, their producer prices rose sharply<\/a> again, up +13.5% from a year ago in August, driven of course by high fuel costs. On the same basis their diesel is up +75% and petrol up +42%. Both rose notably from July as well.<\/p>\n Singapore’s electronics sector had a boom month in August helping power the country’s non-oil exports to a +46% gain<\/a> from the same month a year earlier. That was up very sharply from a downwardly revised +24.1% rise in July and far above forecasts of +35%. It was the twelfth straight month of expansion and the strongest growth since October 1988. The US was a smaller customer in August than July. But every other major country was a much larger customer (other than the EU).(Meanwhile their imports rose +39% but that includes oil.)<\/p>\n Overnight the Bank of England reviewed their policy rate and left it unchanged<\/a> at 3.75%. Three of their nine voters wanted a rise. That kept their no-change streak of 2026 intact. Taiwan<\/a> reviewed its 2.0% policy rate, also keeping it unchanged. And later today the more important Bank of Japan review is expected to announce a +25 bps hike to 1.25%.<\/p>\n In Australia, they released updated population data<\/a> yesterday. This is a hot topic politically. Their population grew by +1.4% in the 12 months to March 2026,\u00a0now 27.9 million people. That’s 392,700 more than the same time in 2025. The natural increase was +100,000 and the net migration increase was +292,100 (and down from +309,500 in the previous year). The state with the biggest increase was Victoria (+109,500); the state with the fastest increase was Western Australia (+2.1%).<\/p>\n Global container freight rates<\/a> have stayed very high but are in fact little-changed from last week at this time. From a year ago they are up +135% however. Within the recent no-change, rates from China to Europe were down about -5% while rates from China to the US rose about +5%. Bulk cargo rates fell -8% in the past week, but are also historically high still and up +55% from a year ago.<\/p>\n The UST 10yr yield<\/a> is now just on 4.94%, down -7 bps from yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.29%, also down -6 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +26 bps (down -8 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +42 bps (-2 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +109 bps (-2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.69%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.00%, unchanged. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.27%, down -4 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.03%, down -1 bp.<\/p>\n Wall Street is rising today, up +1.2% in Thursday trade on the S&P500, and up +1.6% on the Nasdaq. Overnight, European markets were firmer between Lindon’s +1.2% rise and Paris’s +0.6%. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.3%. Hong Kong was down -0.4% and Shanghai eased similarly. Singapore was up +0.4%. The ASX ended its Thursday trade up +0.1%. And the NZX50 rose a full +1.0% again.<\/p>\n The price of gold<\/a> was at US$4360\/oz, and recovering +US$111 from yesterday. Silver is at just over US$65.50\/oz and up +US$2.50\/oz.<\/p>\n Oil prices have eased -50 USc to US$102\/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$104.50\/bbl. Hormuz transits<\/a> are still low today with just seven ships exiting over the past 24 hours, two tankers escorted (2 dark with transponders off) and eight entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is now only about 15 each way at the Yemen chokepoint in a sudden shift<\/p>\n The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, down -20 bps and still at a six-week low.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,622 and up +1.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest again at just over +\/-1.0%.<\/p>\n Select chart tabs<\/p>\n US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n
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