{"id":607067,"date":"2026-09-21T11:32:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/607067\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T11:32:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:32:11","slug":"fonterra-2026-result-co-op-may-hit-target-to-replace-mainland-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/607067\/","title":{"rendered":"Fonterra 2026 result: Co-op may hit target to replace Mainland earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\u201cIf Fonterra achieves the very top end of its earnings guidance for 2026, it would likely achieve its target this year,\u201d Forsyth Barr analyst Will Twiss said.<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, Fonterra said it expected full year underlying earnings to be at the top end of its previously announced range of 60-70 cents per share, which it said would support a strong full year dividend.<\/p>\n
Fonterra\u2019s strong share price performance in recent weeks likely reflected the company upgrading its earnings outlook in September, Twiss said, adding a weak New Zealand dollar would benefit the co-op\u2019s 2026 earnings.<\/p>\n
Fonterra has increased its farmgate milk price forecast for the current season to reflect stronger dairy commodity prices.<\/p>\n
The co-operative said the forecast midpoint has gone to $9.50 per kg of milksolids (kgMS) from $9.25\/kgMS.<\/p>\n
The forecast range lifted and narrowed from $8-$10.50 per kgMS to $8.50-$10.50 per kgMS.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince our last update in July, Global Dairy Trade auction results for key commodity products, particularly whole milk powder and skim milk powder, have improved,\u201d chief executive Richard Allen said.<\/p>\n
\u201cGlobally, we continue to see strength in demand.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis improving outlook reflects continued delivery from our focused execution across our B2B [business to business] businesses,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cGeopolitical volatility remains and, with only two months complete, previous seasons tell us that things can always change,\u201d Allen said.<\/p>\n
The El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern so far does not look to have affected dairy production, going on NZX Dairy data.<\/p>\n
NZX said production for the 2026-27 season-to-date through August was up 3.3% (up 4.3% on a milksolids basis).<\/p>\n
Production for the 12 months through August was up 3.6% (up 4.5% on a milksolids basis).<\/p>\n
Last week, DairyNZ said a strong El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could push farm working expenses and break-even prices sharply higher.<\/p>\n
DairyNZ\u2019s modelling showed a very strong El Ni\u00f1o could push farm working expenses to $6.78\/kgMS and the national break-even milk price to $9.07\/kgMS.<\/p>\n
The farmer-funded organisation urged farmers to prepare for tighter margins and potential feed shortages.<\/p>\n
The anticipated El Ni\u00f1o event added uncertainty to a dairy season already marked by major global events and cost pressures, with the potential for drier conditions to affect pasture growth, feed supply and milk production, it said.<\/p>\n
Fonterra completed the sale of its global consumer and associated businesses, Mainland Group, to French dairy giant Lactalis for $4.22 billion in March.<\/p>\n
The sale enabled a $3.2b payment to farmer shareholders and unit holders via a $2.00-per-share capital return.<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cIf Fonterra achieves the very top end of its earnings guidance for 2026, it would likely achieve its…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":607068,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2246,138,113208,4568,7226,71,3594,26662,685,5836,23394,5812,7810,111,139,69,4482,12229,3235,8225,1529,61,10119,379,1530],"class_list":["post-607067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-2246","tag-business","tag-coop","tag-earnings","tag-fonterra","tag-from","tag-hit","tag-itself","tag-last","tag-lost","tag-mainland","tag-make","tag-may","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-replace","tag-result","tag-sold","tag-target","tag-three","tag-to","tag-within","tag-year","tag-years"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=607067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607067\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/607068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=607067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=607067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=607067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}