{"id":609201,"date":"2026-09-23T12:16:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T12:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/609201\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T12:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T12:16:13","slug":"el-nino-threatens-asia-with-drought-could-raise-food-prices-globally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/609201\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o threatens Asia with drought, could raise food prices globally"},"content":{"rendered":"

All signs are pointing toward a record-breaking El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> this year, which experts say may cause severe drought in Asia and other extreme weather across the world<\/a>, threatening food security<\/a> for millions of people.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is part of a natural climate cycle of warming ocean temperatures, but this year\u2019s is expected to reach new extremes of drought, heat waves<\/a>, flooding and other climate-related disruptions<\/a> in South America, Africa and Asia.<\/p>\n

Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most climate vulnerable regions. It’s already beset by an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. El Ni\u00f1o is already fuelling wildfires across farmland, depleting water supplies for major cities and hurting fish catches in the region.<\/p>\n

Asian governments that have been drawing on their financial reserves to mitigate the war’s ripple effects of higher energy costs and scarce fertiliser supplies have less capacity to cope with this year’s intensifying El Ni\u00f1o, which is forecast to peak in December.<\/p>\n

The phenomenon may amplify other crises in Southeast Asia, according to Paul Teng, with Singapore\u2019s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, who said, \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is only compounding all the other problems that we see.\u201d<\/p>\n

Chief Scientist of Weather and Climate Forecasting at Earth Sciences New Zealand, Chris Brandolino speaks to Breakfast about the weather pattern. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n

Extreme El Ni\u00f1o may threaten global food security<\/p>\n

During El Ni\u00f1o years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual. This happens every few years and often alters global weather patterns.<\/p>\n

This year, the seas already are hotter than average, with global oceans hitting new temperature records in August as the climate warms, said Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.<\/p>\n

This intensifying El Ni\u00f1o may be the \u201cstrongest in living memory\u201d, according to the United Kingdom\u2019s national weather and climate service. Similarly, the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 69% chance that this will be the strongest recorded El Ni\u00f1o since record-keeping began in 1950.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o’s impact will be felt differently across regions, but it is expected to jeopardise food security worldwide. It could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to the United Nations\u2019 World Food Programme.<\/p>\n

The problem will be worst in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also anticipated in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia, warned the food agency.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is expected to bring a warm, dry and windy spring \u2013 putting pressure on crops, pasture, and water supplies. (Source: Breakfast)<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is already hitting parts of Asia<\/p>\n

In Southeast Asia, wildfires are torching forests and peatlands in Indonesia, sending up plumes of toxic haze. The water level of a major reservoir supplying the bustling capital city of Jakarta \u2014 the world’s biggest metropolis \u2014 is dropping inch by inch.<\/p>\n

As the lake dries, the ruins of one of 11 villages that had been inundated by the reservoir have emerged, as alarm grows over the need for alternative water supplies for the city of 42 million.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would have rather not moved. There were plenty of livelihood opportunities here,\u201d said Hussen, who only uses one name, as he ferried people across the receding reservoir.<\/p>\n

This is just the beginning, said Erma Yulihastin with Indonesia’s Research Centre for Climate and Atmosphere, who warned El Ni\u00f1o has only just begun its \u201csuper phase\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"Long-submerged<\/p>\n

Long-submerged houses are exposed after prolonged drought lowers the water level of Karian Dam, in Lebak, Banten Province, Indonesia (Source: Associated Press)<\/p>\n

Southeast Asia’s fisheries brace for drought<\/p>\n

Less rainfall and hotter temperatures are putting pressure on Southeast Asia’s fisheries, an essential source of protein.<\/p>\n

It’s a pressing problem along the Mekong, a river basin that flows through six nations and is being disrupted by mining and construction of hydropower dams.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s one punch after another,\u201d said Zeb Hogan, with the University of Nevada, Reno, who runs the research and conservation project, Wonders of the Mekong. \u201cIf the river doesn\u2019t catch a break, we will reach a point where it\u2019s no longer going to sustain people in the way that it always has.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lower flows are especially hard on communities along the Mekong that depend on predictable water levels for fishing and farming, said Kongmeng Ly, with the Mekong River Commission, an intergovernmental group for Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.<\/p>\n

\"Field<\/p>\n

Field workers collect garlic from a farm on the banks of the Kok River in Tha Ton, Thailand, Feb. 21, 2026. (Source: Associated Press)<\/p>\n

Rice and palm oil supplies are at risk<\/p>\n

Southeast Asia’s wet season generally runs from June to October, when rains usually replenish reservoirs, cool overheated cities and supply water for irrigation ahead of the next planting season.<\/p>\n

Drought may force farmers to delay planting, reduce acreage or switch crops entirely, said Rafisura, with the UN. \u201cAgriculture is definitely on the front line,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Cutbacks in staple crops like rice and palm oil can have global impacts. The world’s top three exporters of rice \u2014 India, Vietnam and Thailand \u2014 are among the nations most likely to be hit hard by El Ni\u00f1o this year.<\/p>\n

North of the Thai capital Bangkok, rice farmers like 55-year-old Boonmark Marksuuk are already facing tough choices. Apart from pricier fuel and fertiliser because of the war, he’s spending most of his days pumping water into his rice fields because he no longer trusts the rain.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is also bearing down on Indonesia and Malaysia, suppliers of about 85% of the world\u2019s palm oil, which is used in everything from cookies and lipstick to toothpaste and laundry detergent.<\/p>\n

1News meteorologist Dan Corbett explains what to expect as we enter spring. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n

Malaysia\u2019s prime minister has ordered its Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to find ways to mitigate El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact, which is forecast to hit Malaysia hardest in November.<\/p>\n

In Indonesia, farmers rely on rain to dissolve fertilisers into the soil to avoid burning the plants, explained Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it doesn\u2019t rain, everyone will definitely stop fertilising,\u201d which will hurt national production, he said.<\/p>\n

While the total economic fallout of an extreme El Ni\u00f1o is hard to calculate, losses from past events have reached trillions of dollars, according to HSBC\u2019s Global Investment Research, which warns the numbers could be even bigger this time.<\/p>\n

Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate this El Ni\u00f1o could push global food commodity prices up more than 15%.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhatever happens to agriculture really determines whether people stay below or just slightly above the poverty line,\u201d Rafisura said. \u201cComing back to Southeast Asia, whatever happens here, the extent to which countries can protect production levels, will have global impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"All signs are pointing toward a record-breaking El Ni\u00f1o this year, which experts say may cause severe drought…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":609202,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[2300,273,111,139,69,147,3393],"class_list":["post-609201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-asia","tag-environment","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-science","tag-weather-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=609201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/609202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=609201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=609201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=609201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}