{"id":609317,"date":"2026-09-23T15:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T15:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/609317\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T15:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T15:12:10","slug":"can-feed-shortages-keep-dairy-prices-high-why-the-markets-normal-cycle-may-be-breaking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/609317\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Feed Shortages Keep Dairy Prices High? Why the Market\u2019s Normal Cycle May Be Breaking"},"content":{"rendered":"

Key takeawaysFeed constraints may limit dairy herd growth despite high milk prices.Fertiliser uncertainty could pressure feed availability and crop yields.Strong demand for dairy protein is helping keep markets tight.<\/p>\n

First, it was beef. Global beef prices have reached elevated levels as supply constraints have collided with strong consumer demand.<\/p>\n

Prices have been climbing steadily since the pandemic, with high feed costs and recurring droughts forcing producers to reduce herd numbers. According to the OECD-FAO<\/a>, global beef reference prices reached a four-decade high in 2025, with limited animal inventories and the slow process of herd rebuilding expected to keep prices high in the near term.<\/p>\n

Upstream, feed availability and cost have been major drivers of this dynamic. Feed markets have remained exposed to successive supply shocks, from pandemic-era processing disruptions and the war in Ukraine to the geopolitical tensions of 2026, which have upended energy, fertiliser and trade flows.<\/p>\n

Fertiliser uncertainty is now feeding into planning for the 2027 crop season, with the International Fertilizer Association warning<\/a> that a prolonged disruption could lead to rationing and lower crop production.<\/p>\n

For dairy, there could be major consequences. <\/p>\n

\u201cTypically, dairy prices are considered the most mean-reverting of all prices,\u201d said Brian Quinn, chief product officer at Quoreka, a commodity trade and risk management software provider.<\/p>\n

This is because when prices rise, producers are incentivised to increase their herds and deliver more milk, with stocks of powders and other finished products also easing to address demand.<\/p>\n

But the state of the feed market today may be disrupting that cyclicality. While high prices and a resilient demand support strong production, feed availability and affordability – themselves dependent on fertiliser flows and crop yields – may in effect constrain cow numbers. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf you can\u2019t feed the cows, you can\u2019t bring more cows online,\u201d said Quinn.<\/p>\n

\"BrianBrian Quinn of Quoreka (Quoreka)<\/p>\n

And crop prospects have already been affected across key markets including Europe and North America, though Brazil\u2019s bumper year is offsetting some of the global pressure.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, pressures in the feed space may keep dairy prices tight for longer.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemand is staying up and supply is not coming up,\u201d said Quinn. \u201cThe cost and availability of feed is making it difficult to produce more.\u201d<\/p>\n

These dynamics are compounded by the strong demand for dairy protein. In the US, the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications and the broader shift towards high-protein diets are supporting demand for whey protein.<\/p>\n

But that creates another complication: producing whey means producing other dairy commodities. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf we are able to increase milk production, I think you\u2019d see the rest of the dairy complex relax a little bit,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

He points to oil production, where refineries cannot increase crude oil production just to meet demand for diesel without also producing other by-products. <\/p>\n

And usually, the additional supply would eventually help ease prices. <\/p>\n

But the uncertainty now is whether constraints upstream would disrupt that cycle – and cost producers more until prices reach equilibrium. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Key takeawaysFeed constraints may limit dairy herd growth despite high milk prices.Fertiliser uncertainty could pressure feed availability and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":609318,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[6689,3648,7022,6162,36641,5276,69542,5972,300223,67838,42725,21665,2518,67842,8577,300224,581,15288,111,139,12908,69,141862,11324,67847,97996,5296,20842,34111,8861,145,16550],"class_list":["post-609317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-technology","tag-agriculture","tag-animal","tag-black","tag-cloud","tag-copy-space","tag-cow","tag-dairy-farm","tag-day","tag-domestic-cattle","tag-female-animal","tag-full-length","tag-grass","tag-green","tag-holstein-cattle","tag-horizon","tag-horizon-over-land","tag-horizontal","tag-livestock","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nobody","tag-nz","tag-one-animal","tag-outdoors","tag-pasture","tag-pattern","tag-photography","tag-portrait","tag-profile","tag-sky","tag-technology","tag-white"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=609317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609317\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/609318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=609317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=609317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=609317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}