{"id":61116,"date":"2025-10-05T17:56:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T17:56:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/61116\/"},"modified":"2025-10-05T17:56:27","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T17:56:27","slug":"economic-week-ahead-september-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/61116\/","title":{"rendered":"ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September’s hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won’t be if the government shuts down on October 1 amid partisan bickering.<\/p>\n

Assuming the data come out, we expect them to show that the economy remains more buoyant than the conventional wisdom acknowledges given how surprised the financial markets were by last week’s upward revision to Q2’s real GDP growth rate. It’s now up from an initial 3.3% (saar) to 3.8%.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the upward revision to Q2’s consumer spending now places the series at a 2.6% pace,\u00a0compared to the initially reported 1.6% rate. Increases in spending on services like transportation, finance, and other categories suggest that Americans are generally working and feel confident enough about wage trends to make purchases.<\/p>\n

Layoffs remain low, meanwhile, as evidenced by last week’s reading on initial unemployment claims, which declined 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ended September 20.<\/p>\n

We’ll hear lots of jabbering from several members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee this week.\u00a0The\u00a0reports\u00a0coming out this week\u2014such as consumer confidence (Tue), Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Tue),\u00a0purchasing managers’ activity (Wed\u00a0and Fri),\u00a0and\u00a0factory orders (Thur)\u2014could influence FOMC members\u2019 views on whether interest rates should be cut again before year-end. But we don\u2019t expect the releases\u00a0to increase the odds of another Federal Reserve rate cut anytime soon.<\/p>\n

Here’s a look at\u00a0the upcoming\u00a0economic\u00a0reports\u00a0most likely to influence\u00a0FOMC members\u2019 thinking:<\/p>\n

(1)\u00a0Employment report. Three months ago, the 75,000 payrolls gain we expect in September (Fri) would’ve left the stock market unhappy. But after the drama surrounding the last two jobs reports, such a gain\u2014and a 4.3% unemployment rate\u2014would be the economic equivalent of comfort food.<\/p>\n

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(2)\u00a0Consumer confidence. After weakening in August, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index survey (Tue) may show improvement in September. Labor market conditions aren’t as dire as feared. The Trump administration is striking tariff deals. Stock prices are rising. The Fed cut the federal funds rate. So confidence should be improving. We will be watching the survey’s labor market indicators for signs of stabilization (chart).<\/p>\n

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(3)\u00a0JOLTS. With all eyes on the health of the US labor market, we expect the August JOLTS report (Tue) to confirm that labor market conditions remained solid last month. August’s jobs plentiful series suggests that the month’s job openings remained elevated (chart). Initial claims (Thu) should also confirm that layoffs remain low.<\/p>\n

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(4)\u00a0PMI surveys. The volatility we’ve seen in purchasing managers’ readings is likely to persist. The ISM US Manufacturing PMI (Wed) increased to 48.7 in August, but remained below the 50.0 mark. The ISM Services PMI (Fri) did expand in August, coming in at 52. The S&P Global flash estimates of the two PMIs edged down in September but remained solidly above 50.0 (chart).<\/p>\n

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\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September’s hotly anticipated…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61117,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-61116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}