{"id":611271,"date":"2026-09-25T10:30:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T10:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/611271\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T10:30:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T10:30:14","slug":"global-bond-sell-off-pushes-nz-yields-higher-as-oil-prices-stay-above-us100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/611271\/","title":{"rendered":"Global bond sell-off pushes NZ yields higher as oil prices stay above US$100"},"content":{"rendered":"Yields in Japan, Britain, Europe and Australia are also on the rise as Brent crude oil prices remain well over US$100 a barrel.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fallout continues and local markets are still running scared,\u201d ANZ strategist David Croy said.<\/p>\n
In bond markets, yields rise when selling pushes prices lower.<\/p>\n
The yield on the NZ Government 2036 bond was up four basis points at 5.10%, after gaining 15 basis points on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, yields were at fresh highs across the curve, with the 2028s trading at 3.95% and the 2031s at 4.60%.<\/p>\n
The longest bond \u2013 the 2054 \u2013 yielded 5.63%.<\/p>\n
The short end of New Zealand\u2019s yield curve responds to local monetary policy decisions on the level of the Official Cash Rate, while longer-dated bonds track offshore markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe market is still broadly observing that tendency \u2013 the short end is paying more attention where the OCR is headed than they are to global rates,\u201d Croy said.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut the problem with this particular global shock is that the shock is oil prices, and oil prices will dictate where headline inflation goes.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs oil prices rise, they\u2019re also pushing up short-end rates because of expectations of what the Reserve Bank might have to do.<\/p>\n
\u201cI would say the market\u2019s been pretty badly beaten up. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s had a real thumping this week, and when you get these huge offshore moves, the kind of immediate reaction here tends to go with it,\u201d Croy said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThen once volatility settles down, what you often observe is that markets become much more discerning of local factors, and you get a little bit more differentiation.\u201d<\/p>\n
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said a credit crunch would be a material downside risk for developed markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe rise in government bond yields in recent months has renewed concerns that a tightening of financial conditions could ultimately slow economic activity,\u201d BMI said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigher market interest rates do not automatically translate into a credit crunch.<\/p>\n
\u201cNevertheless, sustained increases in funding costs can lead banks to tighten lending standards and become more selective in extending credit to households and firms,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe result is a contraction in credit availability that amplifies the initial tightening in financial conditions,\u201d BMI said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA credit crunch would constitute a meaningful downside risk for developed market economies.\u201d<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Yields in Japan, Britain, Europe and Australia are also on the rise as Brent crude oil prices remain…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":611272,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[21045,806,6867,138,10709,803,37078,1437,266,13484,13610,1943,15220,3120,220,13233,111,139,69,4156,3236,12937,18661,24035,60045,2069,71162,34519,102,102241,80],"class_list":["post-611271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-above","tag-as","tag-bond","tag-business","tag-concerns","tag-continue","tag-fiscal","tag-global","tag-government","tag-higher","tag-highs","tag-inflation","tag-line","tag-main","tag-markets","tag-mount","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-oil","tag-overseas","tag-prices","tag-pushes","tag-selling","tag-selloff","tag-stay","tag-threeyear","tag-us100","tag-with","tag-yields","tag-zealand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/611271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=611271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/611271\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/611272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=611271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=611271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=611271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}