{"id":613866,"date":"2026-09-28T01:50:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/613866\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T01:50:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:50:13","slug":"social-security-cola-forecast-for-2027-is-falling-and-here-is-what-it-means-for-retirees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/613866\/","title":{"rendered":"Social Security COLA Forecast for 2027 Is Falling and Here Is What It Means for Retirees"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>October is approaching, and that means many people are looking forward to leaves changing color in their neighborhoods and to trick-or-treaters gracing their doorsteps. Social Security enthusiasts, though, are also eagerly waiting to find out how big the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be for 2027.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s all tied to inflation, of course, and a fluctuating inflation rate has experts revising their COLA estimates. A key source of COLA estimates is the Senior Citizens League, which recently dropped its estimate for the 2027 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/social-security\/colas\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cost of living adjustment (COLA)<\/a> from 3.6% to 3.5%.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"A yellow road sign says &quot;Social Security COLA increase ahead.&quot;\" fetchpriority=\"high\" width=\"880\" height=\"487\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"h-auto max-w-full rounded object-contain\" style=\"color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1790560213_246_.jpeg\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a closer look at COLAs and at what they mean for retirees.<\/p>\n<p>The scoop on COLAs<\/p>\n<p>The most recent COLA, announced in late 2025 for 2026, was 2.8%. Here are some that preceded it:<\/p>\n<p>Year announced<\/p>\n<p>COLA<\/p>\n<p>2025<\/p>\n<p>2.8%<\/p>\n<p>2024<\/p>\n<p>2.5%<\/p>\n<p>2023<\/p>\n<p>3.2%<\/p>\n<p>2022<\/p>\n<p>8.7%<\/p>\n<p>2021<\/p>\n<p>5.9%<\/p>\n<p>2020<\/p>\n<p>1.3%<\/p>\n<p>2019<\/p>\n<p>1.6%<\/p>\n<p>2018<\/p>\n<p>2.8%<\/p>\n<p>2017<\/p>\n<p>2%<\/p>\n<p>2016<\/p>\n<p>0.3%<\/p>\n<p>2015<\/p>\n<p>0%<\/p>\n<p>2014<\/p>\n<p>1.7%<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Source: Social Security Administration.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s actually super important for Social Security beneficiaries to get these nearly annual increases &#8212; because without them, the buying power of their nest eggs could fall by half or more over 25 years.<\/p>\n<p>But the increases are problematic &#8212; because they&#8217;re based on a sub-optimal measure of inflation instead of a more appropriate one. Specifically, the increases are based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) &#8212; a measure focused on the common spending patterns of workers, not retirees.<\/p>\n<p>It would be far more logical to base increases on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which weighs categories such as healthcare more heavily. After all, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/healthcare-in-retirement\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">healthcare spending in retirement<\/a> can be a major expense.<\/p>\n<p>What it means for retirees<\/p>\n<p>So, whether the upcoming increase is 3.5% or more or less, what does it mean for retirees? Here are some things for them to know:<\/p>\n<p>Assuming a 3.5% hike, you can multiply your monthly benefit by 1.035% to find out what your new benefit will be. So a $2,000 benefit will become a $2,070 one.<br \/>\nThis will help your income keep up with inflation &#8212; to some degree. It might more than make up for inflation or it might be insufficient, depending on how you spend your money.<\/p>\n<p>There are some things to worry about, though:<\/p>\n<p>Social Security&#8217;s surplus has been shrinking, as it&#8217;s been paying out more than it has been taking in. If nothing is done to strengthen the program, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/2026\/09\/09\/social-security-is-facing-a-financial-crisis-and-c\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Social Security&#8217;s trust funds&#8217; surplus will run out<\/a> within a few years, and benefits will likely shrink to around 78% of the amount due to beneficiaries. That would turn a $2,000 benefit into a $1,560 one &#8212; and would wipe out any benefit from a COLA.<br \/>\nFortunately, there are multiple <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/2026\/06\/27\/heres-exactly-how-we-fixed-social-security-the-las\/\" class=\"text-cyan-900 hover:text-cyan-800\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ways to fix Social Security<\/a> &#8212; some good, some less so. One recently proposed way, suggested by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), seems terrible to me: instituting a flat-rate COLA for Social Security. The way they propose structuring it would have about 80% of recipients getting a smaller increase than they otherwise would have received.<\/p>\n<p>Take the time to keep up with social Security developments, because they may have a big effect on your future financial security.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"October is approaching, and that means many people are looking forward to leaves changing color in their neighborhoods&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":613867,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[138,246,111,139,69,244,245],"class_list":["post-613866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-personal-finance","tag-business","tag-finance","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-personal-finance","tag-personalfinance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/613866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=613866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/613866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/613867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=613866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=613866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=613866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}