{"id":616018,"date":"2026-09-30T04:38:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T04:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/616018\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T04:38:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T04:38:10","slug":"a-tight-election-looms-in-new-zealand-this-time-overseas-voters-could-be-bad-news-for-the-big-parties-new-zealand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/616018\/","title":{"rendered":"A tight election looms in New Zealand. This time, overseas voters could be bad news for the big parties | New Zealand"},"content":{"rendered":"

New Zealander Kris Taute has lived in Australia for 15 years, but his head and heart are turning towards his home country and a looming general election<\/a> that could be influenced by a large block of overseas voters.<\/p>\n

From across the Tasman Sea, Taute has felt growing frustration at New Zealand\u2019s centre-right coalition government, and analysts believe large numbers of New Zealanders who have left the country since they came to power in 2023 may be poised to vent their grievances at the ballot box in November.<\/p>\n

\u201cI see a lot of poverty among families and friends, and inequality \u2026 stuff that needs to be addressed,\u201d Taute, who is M\u0101ori, tells the Guardian. He says the government\u2019s removal of \u201cquite a lot of M\u0101ori rights\u201d<\/a> troubles him deeply, and is why he\u2019s more motivated to vote in this election.<\/p>\n

Akhil Donthireddy moved to Melbourne last year after struggling to secure a job in New Zealand. The 29-year-old says voting enables him to shape a future he wants to see, and he plans to vote for the Green party. \u201cIf the outlook for the future is hopeful, then I would consider moving back\u201d, he says.<\/p>\n

Polls show the right- and left-leaning coalition blocs will fight one of the tightest elections in years, so votes from New Zealanders abroad like Taute \u2013 who plans to vote for Labour or Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori (the M\u0101ori party) \u2013 could help shape the outcome on 7 November.<\/p>\n

New Zealanders will vote in the general election on 7 November. Current polls indicate it will be a tightly fought contest. Photograph: Fiona Goodall\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Stats NZ estimates there are about one million New Zealanders living overseas. Offshore voter enrolments are rising \u2013 currently 104,164 \u2013 up a whopping 60% compared to the same point in the 2023 election cycle, according to the latest electoral commission data. The commission told the Guardian this is the \u201chighest number\u201d of enrolments it has seen in recent elections.<\/p>\n

New Zealand\u2019s overseas votes form part of a larger group called \u201cspecial votes\u201d. Special votes typically favour leftwing minor parties, says Lara Greaves, a political scientist at Victoria University of Wellington. In 2023, special votes resulted in Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and the Greens gaining three seats between them.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I had to guess where the overseas vote would go this election \u2026 it will go to the minor parties, because they are all offering alternative visions for New Zealand,\u201d Greaves says, adding \u201ca lot of them\u201d would be left-leaning.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s been the conventional wisdom and I can see an argument for that this time around\u201d, she says.<\/p>\n

That would place the current government in a danger zone. The latest 1News Verian poll<\/a> shows support for the two major parties at 28% each, and the Greens surging to their highest ever result of 16%. Other minor parties are polling above the 5% threshold of seats<\/a> needed to enter parliament under New Zealand\u2019s mixed member proportional (MMP) system.<\/p>\n

If major parties do not get enough votes to form a government, minor parties can become \u201ckingmakers\u201d, with the power to decide who will govern.<\/p>\n

Tracey Lee runs Every Kiwi Vote Counts<\/a>, a non-partisan initiative to encourage overseas voting. With the polls so close, Lee believes overseas votes can \u201clegitimately have an impact\u201d and \u201ca fraction of a percentage point can become a decider,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

In a sign of how important that growing overseas voting bloc is, leaders of the prominent political parties will speak to offshore New Zealanders directly in a virtual town hall next month \u2013 a first for the country.<\/p>\n

Record exodus<\/p>\n

Australia is home to the biggest NZ diaspora. Those numbers have surged in recent years as NZ experienced record high departures<\/a> of its citizens across the Tasman, many escaping a weak labour market, sluggish economy and high living costs. About 74,000 chose to move to Australia since the 2023 election adding to the roughly 600,000 New Zealanders already living there.<\/p>\n

Some left because it seemed to be \u201cthe only option available to them to find work and experience\u201d, Lee says. \u201cThey\u2019d love to come home and voting is a way to ensure they\u2019re part of making it a place they can come home to.\u201d<\/p>\n

Greaves says there is a disgruntled bloc of voters who left the country because they could not see a future for themselves<\/a>. \u201cThere is a possibility that a good chunk of that bigger group that have now moved overseas are quite oppositional or quite opposed to what the government has been doing and do feel a level of spite.\u201d<\/p>\n

Australian-based voters<\/a> told the Guardian of their desire to retain their voice in New Zealand\u2019s election \u2013 either to help their families, or to shape the country for their possible return<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Onkar Singh has lived in Melbourne for more than 20 years and while he has no plans to return to New Zealand, he wants to keep the option open. Singh did not wish to disclose who he would vote for but said members of his New Zealand-Punjabi community \u201cwere happy with the current government\u201d.<\/p>\n

Onkar Singh moved to Australia in 2005 with his family for education and job opportunities and is now a dual citizen of both NZ and Australia. Photograph: Christopher Hopkins\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

Most of those the Guardian spoke with, however, would be voting for change.<\/p>\n

For Melbourne-based lawyer, Joseph Nunweek, a move back to New Zealand is likely. Despite living in Australia since 2014, he feels a responsibility to vote for policies that would support his family and community back home, particularly in healthcare, renewable energy and foreign policy. \u201cWashing your hands of [the election] is not really an option,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Lee argues the \u201cmega-electorate\u201d living abroad should no longer be ignored.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve had the right to vote [overseas] since 1956, but it\u2019s slightly frowned upon: \u2018you left, it\u2019s not your business\u2019 is the unwritten rule,\u201d she says. \u201cBut \u2026 democracy only works if we are all part of it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New Zealander Kris Taute has lived in Australia for 15 years, but his head and heart are turning…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":616019,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-616018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=616018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/616019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=616018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=616018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=616018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}