However, after three months of slowdown, the precursor ADP employment report<\/a> showed a +90,000 gain for private sector jobs. In \u00a0a longer perspective this level is modest, but it is much better than recent outcomes. Saturday’s non-farm payrolls are now expected to deliver a similar gain but that will be sharply less than the August one (one you may recall that was received with deep scepticism).<\/p>\n The third and final estimate of Q2-2026 US GDP growth<\/a> came in at a +2.2% rate, down from the +2.5% rate in Q1-2025. But it was an upward revision from their second Q2-2026 estimate so it has had a positive impact on market views. Higher consumer spending, and more from the data center buildout activity were the main reasons for the upgrade.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the August PCE inflation<\/a> metric came in at 3.4% which was little-changed from July and lower than expected. Personal disposable incomes<\/a> rose +4.8% in August from a year ago while personal consumption expenditures<\/a> rose +6.1%. The bond market seems sceptical of this data as the softer-than-expected \u00a0inflation number had no effect stopping the US Treasury yields rising.<\/p>\n The Chicago PMI<\/a> bounced back in September after the August disappointment, back to levels it has had for most of 2026.<\/p>\n US crude oil stocks<\/a> rose modestly last week when a small fall was anticipated. (There is no update on their Strategic Reserve holdings.)<\/p>\n The US booked a very elevated merchandise trade deficit<\/a> in August of -US$132.6 bln and far above the high -$115 bln expected. Clearly the Trump tariff strategies are failing to restrain trade. Exports were up almost +14% (mostly aircraft) but imports surged +28% from the same month in 2025 (mostly data center goods).\u00a0<\/p>\n China said both its official factory and services PMI’s<\/a> shifted into a small expansion in September from a modest contraction in both in August. This was a better result than was expected. In addition, the S&P Global factory PMI<\/a> for China was released. It recorded a modest expansion in August, and that improved in September. The unofficial version for their services sector<\/a> remained very modest however – but at least it improved as well.<\/p>\n In something of a surprise, Korean industrial production<\/a> came in sharply lower in August than anyone expected. It was expected to rise +4% as it did in July, but it actually fell -2.2%, so a notable miss.<\/p>\n German inflation<\/a> came in at 3.3% in September, its highest since the end of 2023.<\/p>\n French sovereign bond risk is rising sharply and investors and analysts are warning of significant trouble if France does not get its fiscal house in order. The key metric being watched is the discount to the equivalent German bond yields which is suddenly at a 14 year extreme, a shift that has burst into the open in just the past few days.<\/p>\n Australian inflation<\/a> rose from 3.5% in July to 4.0% in August in a rise at was basically expected (4.1%) by economists, the financial markets – and presumably the RBA. Their core (trimmed mean) inflation rates was unchanged at 3.6%. Fuel costs were obviously the big mover (+5.6%), but housing costs were up 5.7%, education up 4.7% and health costs up 3.9%. So the rising cost pressures are broadening out. Food was up 3.0%.<\/p>\n There was a notable fall-off in Australian building consents<\/a> in August, down -6.1% and largely due to a retreat in multi-unit approvals.<\/p>\n Global air passenger travel fell<\/a> in August, largely due to pullbacks in both North America and the Middle East. But the gains in the Asia\/Pacific region were modest too with international travel in that region barely changed. But domestic air travel in Chins was up an impressive +5.8%<\/p>\n The UST 10yr yield<\/a> is now just on 5.30%, up another +3 bps from yesterday and a new high since June 2007. The 30 year yield is at 5.65%, up +5 bps and its highest since January 2001. The key 2-10 yield curve<\/a> is now at +41 bps (up +5 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +54 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +137 bps (up +1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.7%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.37%, unchanged from yesterday after the RBA result and the August CPI. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.07%, down -8 bps.<\/p>\n Wall Street is firmer today, up +0.5% in its Wednesday end-of-quarter trade and a quarterly +2.8% rise. The Nasdaq is up +1% for a +3.2% quarterly gain. The softer PCE inflation reading did help these markets. European markets ended their Wednesday trade between London’s -0.3% fall and Paris’s -0.9% firming. Tokyo ended yesterday up +1.9%. Hong Kong was up +0.4% and Shanghai firmed +0.3%. Singapore ended down -0.7%. The ASX200 ended up +0.9% to end its quarter where it started. And the NZX50 rose back +1.1% and a +1.6% quarterly gain.<\/p>\n The price of gold<\/a> is at US$4154\/oz and up +US$6 from yesterday. Silver is at just over US$60\/oz and down -US$1.50.<\/p>\n Oil prices have risen +50 USc\/bbl from yesterday to just over US$91\/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$5 to US$98.50\/bbl. Iran said<\/a> it had received a US response to its latest proposal to resurrect the \u200bcollapsed ceasefire in the Gulf, days after President Donald Trump said he had rejected it. Hormuz transits<\/a> are a bit higher today with ten ships exiting over the past 24 hours, 6 of which are tankers escorted (5 dark with transponders off) and 6 entering for new loads (2 dark). The Red Sea activity is back at about 20 vessels in both directions at the Yemen chokepoint.<\/p>\n The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, still at 56.3 USc and that is still a ten month low. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 81.1 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.1 and up +10 bps yesterday and still hovering at a 17 year low.<\/p>\n The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,277 and up +1.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest, also at just under +\/-1.6%.<\/p>\n Select chart tabs<\/p>\n US$
\n AU$
\n TWI-5
\n \u00a5en
\n \u00a5uan
\n \u20acuro
\n GBP
\n Bitcoin<\/p>\n
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