{"id":618106,"date":"2026-10-02T04:34:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T04:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/618106\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T04:34:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T04:34:12","slug":"stock-takes-how-long-will-sharemarkets-withstand-heavy-bond-selling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/618106\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Takes: How long will sharemarkets withstand heavy bond selling?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Craigs Investment Partners investment director Mark Lister said world equity markets had so far held up in the face of rising bond yields.<\/p>\n
A big part of that has been the activity indicator measures for growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are no signs of recession or economic weakness, which is important in terms of keeping markets upbeat,\u201c he said.<\/p>\n
Lister said US earnings growth \u201chas been obviously very strong\u201d.<\/p>\n
Lodestone approaches<\/p>\n
Lodestone Energy\u2019s initial public offer (IPO) and NZX listing \u2013 planned for October 22 \u2013 is generating interest in investment circles.<\/p>\n
The solar power company wants to raise up to $100 million, with its share offer pitched at $2.25 a share.<\/p>\n
Up to 206.66 million shares would list, which would give the company a potential market capitalisation of $465m.<\/p>\n
The last listing on the NZX of any size was property company Winton Land in December 2021.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s been a long time between drinks in terms of New Zealand\u2019s IPOs, so we are certainly going to look at it,\u201d Craigs\u2019 Lister said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve got a credible management team and a credible story, so it\u2019s interesting.<\/p>\n
\u201cObviously it won\u2019t be for everyone, being a little bit smaller and a bit earlier in its life cycle than some of our more mature businesses.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s potentially something with an above-average growth path in that space, that sort of fits that thematic of renewable energy and electrification, so it\u2019s worth a look.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt will generate some interest because there\u2019s no shortage of capital out there looking to back good, quality stories.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of that money is going offshore these days because there\u2019s so much interesting stuff happening in the international markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut local businesses that have a good product, a sound strategy and a quality management team will always attract local interest.\u201c<\/p>\n
Lodestone\u2019s product disclosure statement (PDS) said the company does not intend to declare any dividends before its 2032 financial year.<\/p>\n
The company\u2019s investors include co-founders Gary Holden, who is the firm\u2019s managing director, and Guy Haddleton, with other business leaders such as Sam Morgan and Sir Stephen Tindall.<\/p>\n
In addition, Jarden Principal Investments, Fisher Funds and Purpose Capital \u2013 which have supported the company through its initial growth period \u2013 will remain shareholders following completion of the offer.<\/p>\n
No existing shareholders will sell shares in the offer and they will be subject to the escrow arrangements.<\/p>\n
The PDS says Lodestone made a $0.9m loss in the March 2026 financial year, compared with a $35.8m loss in the 2025 financial year.<\/p>\n
The company is forecasting ebitdaf (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, fair value movements of financial instruments) of $32m to $38m in the March 2029 year, rising to $85m to $108m in the March 2032 year.<\/p>\n
Firmus AI<\/p>\n
On a larger scale, Australian artificial intelligence infrastructure company Firmus Technologies is seeking to raise A$7.2 billion ($8.9b) from an IPO.<\/p>\n
The Australian Financial Review said Firmus\u2019 float is set to deliver investment bankers an A$215m payday, making it the most lucrative ASX listing for advisers ever.<\/p>\n
The company is expected to begin trading on October 23, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JPMorgan and Morgans Financial appointed as joint lead managers.<\/p>\n
The \u200bIPO will rank as Australia\u2019s second-biggest float after Telstra\u2019s A$14b offer in 1997.<\/p>\n
And Anthropic<\/p>\n
America\u2019s Anthropic, it appears, has resisted the temptation to sugar-coat the message in its offer documents.<\/p>\n
In an IPO prospectus obtained by news agency Reuters, Anthropic says its artificial intelligence models could pose a \u201ccatastrophic or existential risk to humanity\u201d and can \u201cresist shutdown\u201d.<\/p>\n
Anthropic is pursuing an IPO sometime in the next year that many expect to value the 5-year-old company at about US$2 trillion ($3.5t).<\/p>\n
Fonterra shares v units<\/p>\n
A Herald reader has queried the price difference between Fonterra\u2019s farmer-only shares (FCG) and the Fonterra units (FSF), which give investors access to the co-op\u2019s dividends.<\/p>\n
The shares traded yesterday at around $4.92 \u2013 while the units were at $8.78.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs I understand, Fonterra co-op FCG shares and FSF units have essentially the same economic exposure to Fonterra\u2019s earnings and dividends, yet the two markets are putting very different values on them \u2013 and the gap seems to be growing,\u201d the reader wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cFonterra CEO Richard Allen said that underlying profitability has risen from 54c to 71c and return on capital reached 14.2%, adding that he thinks Fonterra is \u2018just beginning\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhy, then, such a large valuation gap between FCG and FSF? Which market is telling us more about the underlying value of Fonterra? Maybe farmer shareholders know something that outside investors don\u2019t \u2013 or vice versa?<\/p>\n
Asked for a response, the co-op said: \u201cFonterra releases the same information on its performance, strategy and outlook publicly to all investors across FCG shares, FSF units and the public.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll current and potential investors have access to the same information about the co-op, which is available via our Investor Centre.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoth FCG shares and FSF units provide exposure to the same underlying economic performance and are entitled to the same dividends and capital returns.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, FCG shares can only be held by co-op farmers, while FSF units can be bought and sold by any investor in public markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cFarmers often make decisions about share ownership alongside other considerations, such as on-farm investment needs, debt management, succession planning and long-term participation in the co-op.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy contrast, FSF investors are typically making investment decisions as part of a broader investment portfolio.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs a result, the two groups can value exposure to Fonterra differently, reflecting their different investment objectives and capital requirements.\u201d<\/p>\n
(Correction: A previous version of this story transposed the Fonterra unit and share price).<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n