Its position on Peters remained unchanged, she said. <\/p>\n
However, the fact it was absent from the formal bottom lines suggests it might not be a deal-breaker if the governing coalition needed Opportunity after the election and Peters wanted to keep Foreign Affairs.<\/p>\n
If he wanted it again, and there were no obvious impediments, he would almost certainly get it for a fourth term.<\/p>\n
Peters bristled in an interview on Newstalk ZB\u2019s The Country last week when host Jamie Mackay suggested he did not want to be Foreign Minister again. <\/p>\n
That was more likely because people were presuming to know what he wanted before he had made it clear. And he hasn\u2019t made it clear.<\/p>\n
The decision to post his right-hand man and foreign affairs adviser Jon Johansson to Stockholm has been interpreted, perhaps overly, as Peters not planning on holding the portfolio again.<\/p>\n
One thing Peters has made clear is that he won\u2019t be talking about ministerial posts before the election. <\/p>\n
There are several reasons Peters may not be the next Foreign Minister, even if the coalition is returned to government.<\/p>\n
The prospect of another three years of international travel may be too wearying. The mind might be willing but an 81-year-old body could be resisting.<\/p>\n
If Peters returned to Government with a much bigger party, and substantial gains in a new coalition, he may want to put greater focus on pursuing a domestic agenda.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s unlikely his coalition partners would give both Defence and Foreign Affairs to New Zealand First, and Peters opted for Ron Mark to return to the Defence portfolio.<\/p>\n
Several National MPs could have a claim on the portfolio. It automatically brings prestige and requires a senior member of the Government, who can foster good relationships, is an independent thinker, not dogmatic, and has a clear view of New Zealand\u2019s place in the world. <\/p>\n
The last National Foreign Minister was Gerry Brownlee, the current Speaker of Parliament.<\/p>\n
He took over in May 2017 after Murray McCully stepped down after almost nine years in the job, and having had only five months in the job, Brownlee may have a sense of unfinished business. <\/p>\n
Even if re-elected to Parliament in his list-only position, it is unlikely he would be returned to the ministerial post. He is too valuable as Speaker.<\/p>\n
Trade Minister Todd McClay would have the strongest claim to the role, being familiar with the issues and the international circuit for two years in the Key-English Government and three years in the current one. <\/p>\n
The downside would be losing one of the world\u2019s more experienced Trade Ministers, who has considerable influence at present. <\/p>\n
But someone such as Simon Watts could pick up Trade.<\/p>\n
It is also possible that, with the current drive to consolidate ministries and ministers, Foreign Affairs and Trade could be combined under McClay.<\/p>\n
The last person to hold the combined Foreign Affairs and Trade portfolio was Don McKinnon from 1990 to 1996, when it was split again.<\/p>\n
McClay would probably need to relinquish Agriculture under that scenario.<\/p>\n
Former Defence Minister Mark Mitchell might have a claim on it, having had international experience briefly as Defence Minister in 2017 and this term as the leading Five Eyes minister.<\/p>\n
Another possibility would be for Luxon to replicate what David Lange did in his first term as Prime Minister and keep the portfolio for himself, with an active associate.<\/p>\n
In the event of a major shake-up in coalition configuration and the possibility of Act or New Zealand First getting Finance, then Foreign Affairs could be a suitable consolation for current minister and National Party deputy leader Nicola Willis, assuming she survived the election as a list MP.<\/p>\n
She would certainly have the skills, seniority and experience to do it. <\/p>\n