{"id":625397,"date":"2026-10-09T13:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T13:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/625397\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T13:30:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T13:30:08","slug":"all-blacks-v-wallabies-prediction-battered-new-zealand-to-lose-eden-park-record-in-bledisloe-cup-opener","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/625397\/","title":{"rendered":"All Blacks v Wallabies prediction: ‘Battered’ New Zealand to lose Eden Park record in Bledisloe Cup opener"},"content":{"rendered":"

A battered New Zealand<\/a> side without its captain and both first-choice fly-halves meets Les Kiss\u2019 unbeaten Wallabies, fresh from beating the world champions, in Saturday\u2019s Bledisloe Cup opener at Eden Park.<\/p>\n

The top line<\/p>\n

There are older rivalries in the game, but not many, and few that have been played as often or as hard as this one. New Zealand<\/a> and Australia<\/a> first met in a Test in 1903, the Bledisloe Cup has been fought over since the early 1930s, and for the last two decades the story has been told almost entirely in black: the All Blacks have held the Cup since 2003, they\u2019ve won their last 11 Tests<\/a> against the Wallabies, and Australia haven\u2019t won at Eden Park since 1986.<\/p>\n

On paper, then, it says New Zealand. The present is more complicated, because the All Blacks come into this game battered and bruised by a heavy-format, four-Test series against the Springboks that started with a 33-16 win at Ellis Park and then turned into three straight defeats, the last of them 43-28 in Baltimore. The bill has arrived in the shape of a casualty list that would test any squad.<\/p>\n

Ardie Savea dislocated his shoulder in Soweto and is very unlikely to play again this year, Luke Jacobson has had elbow surgery, Ruben Love\u2019s ankle has finished his 2026, and Richie Mo\u2019unga tore a calf in training on Tuesday. Add Caleb Clarke, Billy Proctor, Anton Lienert-Brown and Fehi Fineanganofo and you\u2019ve a side missing its captain, both its first-choice fly-halves and two of its three best loose forwards; Damian McKenzie moves to fly-half, Beauden Barrett comes in at full-back and Codie Taylor leads the side.<\/p>\n

Australia, by contrast, are flying. Kiss hasn\u2019t lost since taking over from Joe Schmidt: two wins over Japan, a win and a draw in Argentina that gave the Wallabies their first ever series win there, and then the 42-38 victory over the Springboks in Perth, a game they had led by 25 points and finished with 11 men.<\/p>\n

Hunter Paisami\u2019s suspension is the only forced change, with Len Ikitau moving to 12 and Isaac Henry starting at 13, and it makes for two very exciting teams and the most genuine sense in years that the Bledisloe is up for grabs. The Wallabies have to win the two-Test series outright to take the Cup back, and the second Test is in Sydney a week on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Where the game will be won and lost<\/p>\n

Two things will shape this Test: what happens to the ball when it goes up, and how rarely it goes to ground. Start with the air, because both coaches have picked their sides with it in mind. Kiss has kept Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii on the wing alongside Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright because the aerial contest decided Perth, where a Ryan Lonergan box kick left Aphelele Fassi one-on-one with Suaalii and led to Ikitau\u2019s second try.<\/p>\n

New Zealand have good reason to be wary, because across the four Tests against South Africa they secured only 30 per cent of contestable kicks, and Leroy Carter, the smallest man in their back three, can expect a fair amount of traffic.<\/p>\n

It will be a low-ruck game, and deliberately so. Every breakdown is another opportunity to lose possession, concede a penalty or allow the defence to reset, and with Fraser McReight hunting over the ball, New Zealand have every reason to keep those contests to a minimum.<\/p>\n

McReight is one of the most destructive breakdown operators in Test rugby, and the last thing the All Blacks want is to feed him a succession of predictable carries into a settled line, so both sides will favour the aerial contest and the chance to attack before the defence resets rather than carry repeatedly into an organised one.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a calculated risk, because every loose contestable kick also gives McReight and his fellow chasers the chance to turn defence into attack, and in a match with fewer breakdowns, a single turnover in the right part of the field could be decisive.<\/p>\n

Barrett brothers set for stunning post-World Cup switch as PREM Rugby pair enter tug of war for All Blacks greats<\/a><\/p>\n

Australia will also fancy their chances against a New Zealand defence that hasn\u2019t been watertight. The All Blacks shipped six tries and 43 points in Baltimore, and on Saturday they will defend with a fly-half who has spent most of the year at full-back, a reshaped midfield and a back-row that has barely played together.<\/p>\n

Ikitau and Henry are big, direct runners who will go looking for McKenzie\u2019s channel, and if the Wallabies can get Carter defending one-on-one on the left edge, he will have a long evening.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the maul, a key battle because both sides love a rumble. The Springboks showed both these teams how it works: Malcolm Marx scored off the drive in Soweto and again in Baltimore, and Johan Grobbelaar went over from one in Perth.<\/p>\n

Australia are very good at defending the drive, but Grobbelaar\u2019s try was a reminder that one lapse is all it takes, and with Taylor throwing to Scott Barrett and Josh Lord, New Zealand will test that defence every time they get a penalty in the Wallaby half.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why discipline matters so much: the All Blacks conceded 43 penalties across the four Tests against the Springboks to South Africa\u2019s 35 and lost eight lineouts on their own throw to South Africa\u2019s two, and whichever side wins those columns on Saturday will have the platform to maul.<\/p>\n

And then there are the benches, and above all the replacement front-rows. Can Australia\u2019s match New Zealand\u2019s? It\u2019s a big challenge. The All Blacks can bring on Asafo Aumua\u2019s carrying, George Bower and Pasilio Tosi, all seasoned Test men, whereas Australia\u2019s trio of Josh Nasser, Aidan Ross, the former All Black facing his old side for the first time, and the 22-year-old Massimo De Lutiis is light on Test miles.<\/p>\n

Taniela Tupou is unavailable because he plays overseas and the release regulation isn\u2019t in force for this October window. New Zealand will expect to turn the screw in the last quarter, exactly when the Springboks ran in 21 points in Perth.<\/p>\n

Kiss does have Nick Champion de Crespigny among his loose-forward cover, and if the Wallabies find themselves in trouble late on, a cool head in a crisis runs in the family: his uncle Richard was the Qantas captain who landed the stricken A380, QF32, at Singapore in 2010 with an engine blown apart and a badly damaged wing.<\/p>\n

What they said<\/p>\n

Rennie\u2019s respect for the Wallabies is genuine. After Perth he said Australia had been excellent, that he wasn\u2019t surprised, and that it was \u201ca good message for our boys\u201d about the quality of the side coming to Eden Park.<\/p>\n

Scott Barrett shrugged off Rennie\u2019s description of him as a \u201creluctant captain\u201d, and said he was hugely excited to be back. On what\u2019s coming, he was in no doubt: \u201cWe\u2019re fully on alert.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wallabies: The \u2018Bermuda Triangle\u2019 challenge facing \u2018big body\u2019 Joseph Suaalii on the Eden Park wing<\/a><\/p>\n

Kiss called Henry\u2019s selection a fairly simple decision in the end, describing him as a team-first player who works hard on his craft and \u201cjust happens to be bloody talented too\u201d. On his back three, he simply said he wanted to persist with the combination for another week.<\/p>\n

Players to watch<\/p>\n

If there is one name the Wallabies should be worrying about on the All Blacks bench, it\u2019s Anton Segner, the German-born Blues flanker who only made his Test debut this year and is an outstanding young openside. His game is built on exactly what matters in a low-ruck Test: low, hard tackling that stops carriers behind the gain line, strong hands over the ball and real footwork when he has it.<\/p>\n

When he comes on against a tiring Wallaby back-row he will be hunting the turnover that swings a tight game. With Jacobson out until next season, this is his chance to make the No.7 jersey his own.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a strange year for Scott Barrett, or Scooter as everyone in New Zealand rugby knows him. A sabbatical, a back injury and the loss of the captaincy meant that when he turned out for Taranaki last month it was his first game in 10 months, but he is 89 Tests in and he is exactly what this pack has been missing: a lineout caller who wins his own ball, a big body behind Fletcher Newell at scrum time and a forward who relishes the dirty work.<\/p>\n

Harry Wilson against Wallace Sititi is another lovely contest. Wilson is the Wallaby captain and the heartbeat of their carrying game, a big, honest runner who scored in Perth, whilst Sititi is the more explosive athlete, with footwork and offloads that let him beat the first man rather than run through him. If the young All Black wins the collisions, Australia\u2019s go-forward dries up quickly.<\/p>\n

The full-backs are a terrific contest. Wright has been one of Australia\u2019s most consistent performers this season, dangerous on the counter and secure under the high ball, whilst Barrett, a 145-Test veteran, still has the range and the vision to turn a loose kick into a try from deep.<\/p>\n

Up front, the monster battle is Angus Bell against Newell, loosehead against tighthead. Bell is the most dynamic loosehead Australia have produced in years, a prop who carries like a back-rower and has become a far more reliable scrummager, whilst Newell is a superb tighthead whose job is to hold him up and drive through him.<\/p>\n

Main head-to-head<\/p>\n

Cam Roigard against Lonergan is the best contest on the field, and it\u2019s a proper clash of styles. Lonergan was absolutely brilliant against South Africa, scoring 17 points, kicking everything off the tee until a final conversion from out wide and putting on a box-kicking display so accurate that it gave the Wallabies the control they had lacked from their half-backs for years.<\/p>\n

Harry Wilson explains the \u2018really good pictures\u2019 Rugby\u2019s Greatest Rivalry painted for the Wallabies<\/a><\/p>\n

Roigard is a different animal: quicker, more dangerous around the fringes and better at punishing a defence that isn\u2019t set, but the only flaw in his rounded game is he is just a smidgen away in terms of the speed of base to foot kicking game that Lonergan possesses.<\/p>\n

The Wallabies will want to slow New Zealand\u2019s ruck ball, because Roigard on quick ball against a retreating defence is the All Blacks\u2019 best weapon, whilst New Zealand will want a fast chase onto Lonergan\u2019s box kicks to make him hurry. Whichever nine controls the tempo will go a long way to deciding the Test.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/p>\n

This writer tipped South Africa by 15 before Perth when every instinct (and indeed, the first draft) said Australia, and he is not making the same mistake twice. This is a coaching call, not a sentimental one.<\/p>\n

In Perth the Springbok blitz buried Ben Donaldson early, targeting the first receiver and slowing the Wallaby ball, and within the half, not at the break, Kiss\u2019 side changed the picture: McReight, Wilson, Rob Valetini and Paisami took on first-receiver duties, Donaldson moved to second receiver, and suddenly the press was committing to the wrong threats.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a side that can alter the geometry of a Test in real time, and it\u2019s exactly the wrong opponent for a New Zealand defence with McKenzie back at 10, a reshaped midfield and a back-row that has barely played together.<\/p>\n

When New Zealand change the defensive picture, this Wallaby side has shown it can find answers, and with McReight over the ball and Lonergan in control, Australia have the tools to win on their own terms, so long as they can overcome the emotional fortress that\u2019s Eden Park.<\/p>\n

Want more from Planet Rugby? Add us as a preferred source on Google to your favourites list<\/a> for world-class coverage you can trust.<\/p>\n

New Zealand will have their moments. Scott Barrett gives them an edge at the set-piece, their bench front-row is the stronger and Eden Park will roar them on, so Australia will need their bench to hold firm and keep their discipline in the last 20 minutes in a way they didn\u2019t in Perth.<\/p>\n

But they are the better-organised side, they are coached by a man who solves problems while the match is happening, and they are playing a New Zealand team still finding out who it is. Australia to win 32-27 and end the Eden Park run, leaving the Wallabies one win in Sydney on October 17 away from their first Bledisloe Cup since 2002.<\/p>\n

The teams<\/p>\n

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa\u2019i, 5 Josh Lord, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (c), 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Shannon Frizell, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Josh Moorby<\/p>\n

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Isaac Henry, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Massimo De Lutiis, 19 Lachlan Shaw, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Declan Meredith, 23 Harry Potter<\/p>\n

Date: Saturday, October 10
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:10 local (17:10 AEDT, 07:10 BST, 06:10 GMT, 08:10 SAST)
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant referees: Luke Pearce (RFU), Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
FPRO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)<\/p>\n

READ MORE: Cam Roigard sees \u2018clear and simple\u2019 solution to improve All Blacks\u2019 big weakness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A battered New Zealand side without its captain and both first-choice fly-halves meets Les Kiss\u2019 unbeaten Wallabies, fresh…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625398,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[85,337,1463,1464,111,43,139,69],"class_list":["post-625397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-australia","tag-features","tag-home-page","tag-internationals","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}