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<\/p>\nAnalysis: For the White House, the midterm elections are always agony. They are always a referendum on the president.<\/p>\n
By Bruce Wolpe for The Conversation<\/p>\n
On October 12, 2010, I was serving on the Democratic staff of the US House of Representatives. It was just two years after Barack Obama\u2019s historic presidential election victory. His majority in the House was 39 seats. I took a scan of the House races in the upcoming midterm elections. <\/p>\n
There were at least 86 vulnerable Democratic seats in play. My best estimate, that day, was that we would lose 54 seats, leaving the Democrats at least 15 short of a majority. It was clear all was lost.<\/p>\n
In every Democratic office, the staff discussed with their representatives the catastrophe on the horizon. Republicans in the House are having that discussion right now.<\/p>\n
Obama was routed with a 64-seat loss in the House that November. But the surprise was the Democrats retained control of the Senate, 53-47 seats, which is exactly what the Republicans hold today.<\/p>\n
A replay of that scenario from 16 years ago would be but a modest catastrophe for President Donald Trump. He would still be dominant in Washington, exercising his immense executive power and keeping his hold on the Senate.<\/p>\n
But that is not how expert political analysts are seeing the outcome of this election less than a month out from polling day. Charlie Cook, the founder of the Cook Political Report, is one of the most cautious. He projects the Democrats will take at least five to 15 seats and win control of the House. The Senate is more up in the air, where the Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats.<\/p>\n
If Trump loses control of the Senate, it means his appointments \u2013 judges, cabinet officers, ambassadors \u2013 will not pass without Democrat support. All his legislative initiatives would have to be acceptable to Democrats.<\/p>\n
The Democrats could also pass bill after bill on key issues such as affordability, inflation, energy prices and health care, and send them to the president\u2019s desk, where Trump would likely veto them. There could be joint House-Senate investigations into Trump\u2019s finances and exercise of power.<\/p>\n
And all this activity will set the stage for the 2028 presidential campaign.<\/p>\n
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Trump boards Air Force One ahead of campaigning in Nebraska, October 5, 2026. (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n
Troubled times for Trump<\/p>\n
The political atmosphere has turned dark for Trump and Republicans across the country. Democratic Senate candidates have suddenly become fiercely competitive in solid Republican states like Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and South Carolina.<\/p>\n
Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Report, last week observed:<\/p>\n
“If you\u2019re the party in the White House, there are really three options for you on election day. The election day is going to be bad; it\u2019s going to be really bad; or it\u2019s going to be catastrophically bad. You know that going in. Now we\u2019re into catastrophically bad territory.”<\/p>\n
There is no mystery here. Trump has become one of the most unpopular presidents in modern American history. His approval rating is at a record low of 32% \u2013 the lowest of any president since Harry Truman in 1952.<\/p>\n
He is under water in 39 of the 50 states, including Republican stalwarts Texas and Florida. A decisive majority of adults believe the national economy and the country as a whole are worse off in Trump\u2019s second term.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s management of the Iran war is exceedingly unpopular. On health care, cost of living, foreign policy, the economy and AI, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans.<\/p>\n
The President and Republicans are also losing support among Latino voters \u2013 a pivotal demographic that boosted Trump\u2019s election victory in 2024.<\/p>\n
In polling on a generic ballot \u2013 will you vote for a Democrat or a Republican in the midterms? \u2013 Democrats have a double-digit edge, with Democratic voters more motivated to turn out than Republican voters.<\/p>\n
Trump is effectively forced to campaign in at least four states \u2013 Iowa, Alaska, Ohio and Texas \u2013 that he won by double digits in 2024.<\/p>\n
He is also in denial about his standing and the polls. On the stump, Trump gives himself an \u201cA+\u201d on inflation. Questioned by Time magazine on his low polls, Trump said, \u201cThey\u2019re fake numbers. I would beat anybody running today by 20 points. Your numbers that you have are fake. The pollsters are corrupt.\u201d In Ohio, Trump told the crowd, \u201cWe\u2019re gonna win big, and we\u2019re gonna shove it up their ass.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Former US President Barack Obama will serve as the Democrats’ closer-in-chief for the midterm elections. (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n
Trump pleads with voters to \u201cjust pretend I am on the ballot\u201d. The problem with that tactic is it triggers voters who disapprove of him to get out and vote.<\/p>\n
The President is also now urging his supporters to vote by mail \u2013 something he has vociferously opposed, claiming falsely that it enables Democrats to rig elections. But this desperate instruction will make it harder for Trump to challenge Democratic victories in states with mail-in ballots.<\/p>\n