There has traditionally been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia.<\/p>\n
While it averaged about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, the average loss was just 3000 a year from 2014 to 2019, Stats NZ said.<\/p>\n
For March years, the recent peak net migration loss to Australia was 32,100 to March 2024.<\/p>\n
Stats NZ updates transtasman migration figures twice a year.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the latest monthly data for overall net migration also shows numbers growing \u2013 although at a slower pace than economists had been expecting.<\/p>\n
For the year to August 2026, there was an annual net migration gain of 20,500, compared with a gain of just 9200 to August 2025.<\/p>\n
That is still well below average.<\/p>\n
Stats NZ said the long-term averages for August years (2002 to 2025) were a net migration gain of 31,100.<\/p>\n
Annual net migration peaked in the year ending October 2023, with a gain of 133,700.<\/p>\n
It has fallen to historic lows in the past few years.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe retain our view that the net immigration impulse will recover more gradually, with a more meaningful improvement into 2027 as the economic recovery matures,\u201d said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.<\/p>\n
\u201cA slower recovery towards long-term net immigration averages will have both demand and supply side implications.\u201d<\/p>\n
It aligned with a more moderate outlook for housing activity and house prices, he said.<\/p>\n
But a more gradual recovery in net migration could also provide \u201can avenue for a more balanced and durable future upswing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Increasing numbers of returning Kiwis have underpinned the improvement.<\/p>\n
By citizenship, New Zealand arrivals were the largest group, up 6% to 26,600.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe hope is that this coincides with a burgeoning economic recovery to buttress the retention of New Zealand talent,\u201d said ASB\u2019s Smith.<\/p>\n
\u201cA further slowing in the Australian labour market can also weigh on the number of Kiwi heading across the ditch.\u201d<\/p>\n
Citizens of China (19,000), India (17,200) and the Philippines (10,900) were the next largest groups.<\/p>\n
On balance, there is still a net loss of New Zealand citizens to the world, with long-term departures unchanged at about 64,800.<\/p>\n
Tourist arrivals<\/p>\n
Stats NZ also released new data on short-term visitor arrivals, showing tourist numbers continue to grow.<\/p>\n
Overseas visitor arrivals were 248,700 in August 2026, an increase of 18,400 from August 2025. <\/p>\n
There were record arrivals for an August month of overseas visitors from some markets, including Australia (125,600), Taiwan (5800), and Singapore (4600), Stats NZ said.<\/p>\n
The total number of overseas visitor arrivals in August 2026 was now 99% of the August 2019 level (before the Covid-19 pandemic), Stats NZ said.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite the geopolitical ructions, the low NZD has boosted the NZ tourism sector and supporting industries,\u201d Smith said.<\/p>\n
More than 85% of the annual increase in tourist arrivals was accounted for by Aussie and Chinese visitors, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA weaker NZ dollar may have boosted the spending power of tourists coming into NZ, but it is not so good for New Zealanders heading abroad, with annual resident departures at a 12-month low.\u201d<\/p>\n
Infometrics economist Nick Brunsdon noted that China continued to lead growth in visitor arrivals, overtaking Australia as a growth driver in August. <\/p>\n
\u201cChinese arrivals grew 32% per annum in August, accounting for 35% of total visitor arrival growth,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Australian arrivals rose 4.9% per annum, accounting for 32% of total growth.<\/p>\n
United States arrivals grew 17% and accounted for 11% of total growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe South Island continues to dominate growth in international visitor arrivals, with Queenstown and Christchurch airports together accounting for 76% of growth from August 2025 to August 2026,\u201d Brunsdon said.<\/p>\n
Growth in Queenstown arrivals was greater than Auckland and Christchurch combined.<\/p>\n
A strong recovery of international visitor arrivals, coupled with a fall in departures of New Zealanders, highlighted the impact of the weaker New Zealand dollar, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cForeign visitors are finding their budgets stretch further, making New Zealand more attractive than it was a year ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n