More people and properties are likely to be exposed to flooding and landslides, adding to concerns that the increasing risks of disasters under climate change will lead to homes in \u201chigh-risk areas\u201d becoming uninsurable, a new climate report says.<\/p>\n
\u201cMuch of our infrastructure was not designed for the level of natural hazard impacts we are already experiencing due to climate change.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese impacts are projected to increase. Increasing numbers of homes and properties are exposed to flooding and landslides, putting people more at risk,” the report says.<\/p>\n
The report, called Our Atmosphere and Climate 2026, was released on Wednesday by the Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (MCERT) alongside Statistics New Zealand.<\/p>\n
This is the fourth report<\/a> in a series that focuses on the country\u2019s atmosphere and climate, and includes the latest data and scientific evidence to explain how NZ\u2019s climate is changing, what that means and what pressures are contributing to these changes.<\/p>\n The report also includes outlook assessments which describe how the environment may change in the future. It also looks at situations under different climate change scenarios and includes “expressions of confidence” which “give an indication of the reliability and level of corroboration of evidence used in an assessment”.<\/p>\n The report makes clear that the future will always be uncertain, so the assessments should not be read as \u201cstatements of fact but as assessments of what may occur based on what we know now about the range of possible futures\u201d.<\/p>\n \u2018The climate we have known is entering uncharted territory\u2019<\/p>\n The report points out that greenhouse gases continue to accumulate, contributing to long-term warming while \u201cmultiple climate indicators show that New Zealand\u2019s climate is continuing to change\u201d.<\/p>\n Broken down, the report says gradual changes in the climate include warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, changes in rainfall and warming oceans. Meanwhile, sudden events include floods, drought, severe storms, wildfires and heatwaves.<\/p>\n \u201cThe climate we have known is entering uncharted territory.”<\/p>\n The report says while NZ\u2019s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is small, our emissions per person are high.<\/p>\n \u201cGreenhouse gas emissions arise from activities such as food production, energy generation, transport, housing and land management. At the same time, forests, wetlands and other ecosystems remove and store carbon from the atmosphere. Our emissions are reducing in some areas, but are stable or increasing in others.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cClimate change is changing the natural systems that sustain life across land, freshwater and marine environments. Native ecosystems and species are facing increasing pressure from changing climate conditions and extreme events,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n Climate change is also affecting the country\u2019s economy, infrastructure, property and livelihoods, the report says, pointing out that some impacts are creeping up on NZ while others are brought on by sudden events.<\/p>\n \u201cSome impacts develop gradually as temperatures rise, rainfall patterns shift, seas warm and sea levels increase. Others arise through sudden events such as floods, droughts, storms and landslides. These impacts can compound over time and spread across connected economic and infrastructure systems.”<\/p>\n Flooding of inland areas presents \u2018most widespread risk to people and properties\u2019<\/p>\n The report says: \u201cSince the 28-day national state of emergency declared for Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023, every region except Taranaki has been affected by at least one local state of emergency due to extreme weather or flooding.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cRegion-level states of emergency for extreme weather have affected ten regions, with these declarations lasting two to three weeks for events affecting the Bay of Plenty, Tair\u0101whiti, Nelson, Tasman and Southland regions.\u201d<\/p>\n The report says modelling estimates that the homes of about 750,000 people are already exposed to inland flooding under a 1% annual likelihood flooding event and regionally, the homes of about 55% of the population of both the Kawerau and Buller districts, and about 63% of the Wairoa district are exposed.<\/p>\n \u201cExposure of existing homes to inland flooding is projected to increase nationally, with between 815,000 and 839,000 residents exposed by 2050 under a 1% annual likelihood flooding event, under the low and high climate scenarios respectively (low confidence).\u201d<\/p>\n But it\u2019s not just inland flooding the report has looked at.<\/p>\n \u201cFor rainfall-induced landslides<\/a>, modelling estimates that the homes of about 80,000 people are already exposed under a 1% annual likelihood rain event.\u201d<\/p>\n The report projects that this exposure is set to increase, \u201cwith between 111,000 and 127,000 residents exposed by 2050, under the low and high climate scenarios respectively (low confidence)\u201d.<\/p>\n As for coastal flooding, current modelling estimates that about 32,000 people\u2019s homes are already exposed under a 1% annual likelihood flooding event.<\/p>\n \u201cExposure of existing homes is projected to increase, with between 48,000 and 52,000 residents exposed by 2050, under the low and high climate scenarios respectively (high confidence).\u201d<\/p>\n Marae are also vulnerable, with modelling estimating that 12 marae are already directly exposed to coastal flooding and two are already exposed to rainfall-induced landslides, under a 1% annual likelihood of a coastal flooding or rainfall event.<\/p>\n \u201cA total of 100 marae (9%) are at risk of becoming isolated by this level of flooding, and a total of 88 marae (8%) are at risk of isolation by this extent of landslides, due to transport infrastructure exposure.<\/p>\n \u201cThis isolation could prevent marae from fulfilling their roles as cultural centres and emergency hubs during disasters, potentially compromising both cultural continuity and community resilience,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n \u201cSea-level rise will very likely increase coastal flooding exposure affecting settlements, marae and heritage sites.\u201d<\/p>\n Insurance accessibility<\/p>\n Insurance accessibility and affordability<\/a> have been an ongoing concern, with premiums rising and insurers increasingly adopting \u201crisk-based pricing\u201d.<\/p>\n The report says some marae have faced challenges accessing adequate insurance, retrofitting capacity and recovery funding, especially if there are multiple landowners or there\u2019s collective governance \u201cin ways that do not meet standard eligibility criteria\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cThese factors can limit the ability of marae to restore function following damage from extreme weather events.\u201d<\/p>\n Aotearoa is viewed as the second riskiest country in the world<\/a> when it comes to natural hazards, and since 2010, $64 billion<\/a> has been spent on natural disasters, an average of around $4.2 billion a year.<\/p>\n Since 2000, the price of house insurance<\/a> has increased 916% – which consumer advocacy organisation Consumer NZ says is the biggest price rise for goods monitored by the Consumers Price Index (CPI) over the past 25 years. Alongside this, premiums have increased three times more<\/a> than CPI inflation since 2011.<\/p>\n