{"id":630255,"date":"2026-10-14T10:06:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T10:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/630255\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T10:06:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T10:06:11","slug":"southwest-pacific-cyclone-outlook-up-to-11-forecast-amid-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/630255\/","title":{"rendered":"Southwest Pacific cyclone outlook: Up to 11 forecast amid El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"

Elevated cyclone activity is expected across the northern, northeastern and central Southwest Pacific.<\/p>\n

\"ElevatedElevated tropical cyclone activity is forecast across parts of the Southwest Pacific this summer, particularly near and east of the International Date Line. Graphic \/ Earth Sciences New Zealand<\/p>\n

Lorrey said there were also indications the cyclone season could begin earlier than usual. <\/p>\n

\u201cOver the long term, cyclone numbers have been gradually decreasing in the Southwest Pacific, but there can be prominent year-to-year variability.\u201d <\/p>\n

New Zealand\u2019s overall cyclone risk remains normal, with the greatest risk in late summer and autumn, although a decaying storm may be more likely to affect northern or western areas than eastern regions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year there is the potential that northern and western areas facing the Tasman Sea have more of a chance of experiencing a decaying storm than eastern regions,\u201d Lorrey said. <\/p>\n

\u201cNew Zealand\u2019s most active months for ex-tropical cyclones are usually February and March, but some of them can visit us much earlier, and they can also occur beyond the end of April.\u201d<\/p>\n

In April, the remnants of Cyclone Vaianu brought destructive winds and heavy rain to the North Island<\/a>, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate, leaving thousands without power and causing flooding and slips.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, at the other end of the Pacific, El Ni\u00f1o conditions and unusually warm ocean temperatures have helped fuel record-breaking hurricane activity in recent days.<\/p>\n

In Mexico, at least six people have died after flooding and landslides caused by Hurricane Simon and the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel.<\/p>\n

Enormous waves associated with Rachel have battered the Southern California coastline<\/a>, damaging beachfront homes and leaving 13 Long Beach homes unsafe to occupy.<\/p>\n

The eastern and central Pacific have recorded their highest combined seasonal cyclone energy on record, surpassing the previous mark set in 2018.<\/p>\n

\u201cCommunities across the Pacific should pay attention to forecasts and heed official advice if a weather warning related to a tropical cyclone is issued,\u201d Lorrey said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Elevated cyclone activity is expected across the northern, northeastern and central Southwest Pacific. Elevated tropical cyclone activity is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":630256,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7804,2840,534,124,33959,54169,83585,5616,16555,3011,5840,111,43,139,192804,69,17695,13572,36200,13608,2848,33553,11561,14625,1961,61,19030,810,102],"class_list":["post-630255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-7804","tag-across","tag-amid","tag-could","tag-cyclone","tag-cyclones","tag-el","tag-forecast","tag-form","tag-four","tag-least","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nio","tag-nz","tag-outlook","tag-pacific","tag-potentially","tag-reaching","tag-severe","tag-southwest","tag-strength","tag-summer","tag-this","tag-to","tag-tropical","tag-up","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=630255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630255\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/630256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=630255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=630255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=630255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}