{"id":632047,"date":"2026-10-16T04:12:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T04:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/632047\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T04:12:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T04:12:09","slug":"election-2026-new-poll-shows-labour-edging-ahead-of-national-as-opportunity-hits-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/632047\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2026: New poll shows Labour edging ahead of National as Opportunity hits 5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">That\u2019s National\u2019s lowest result in that poll since November 2021, when Luxon took over as leader.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">The Greens are on their best result since July 2017, around the time Jacinda Ardern took over as Labour leader.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">But the polling was before the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/frustrated-green-co-leaders-bat-away-questions-on-mongrel-mob-visit\/YATSJ2V4LZD6TEYZSFX76QF4QE\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/politics\/frustrated-green-co-leaders-bat-away-questions-on-mongrel-mob-visit\/YATSJ2V4LZD6TEYZSFX76QF4QE\/\">Mongrel Mob gang visit controversy<\/a> now engulfing the Greens.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">The two main potential coalition blocs are close to even, with National, Act and New Zealand First on a combined 48%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">Labour, the Greens and Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori are on 46%, up 1%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">That leaves Opportunity holding the balance of power, but crucially only just over the 5% mark.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">The commentary accompanying the poll says voters are increasingly expecting a change of government, with 43% predicting a Labour-led Government \u2013 up 4%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">That compares to 32% who expect a National-led Government, down 4%. A quarter (25%) were unsure.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">The preferred Prime Minister race was tied, with Chris Hipkins up 2% to 22% and Christopher Luxon unchanged on the same number.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">Among Opportunity voters, 50% preferred a Labour-led Government, with only 10% a National-led one.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">In other results, more people thought the country was heading in the wrong direction (49%) than the right direction (40%), and a majority (53%) disapproved of the overall performance of the National-led Government versus 41% who approved.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">And with so much attention on the election, respondents were asked how engaged they were with the campaign.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">It found older New Zealanders were far more interested \u2013 with 64% of those over 60 saying they were following closely. That number fell to 35% in the 18-29 range.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">Opportunity voters were more likely to claim they were following closely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">The nationwide online survey was conducted from October 6 to 10 and involved 1352 New Zealanders aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error is \u00b12.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.<\/p>\n<p class=\"FxSPvgIxedhFU\" style=\"display:none\">Katie Bradford is a Senior Correspondent at the Herald. She has been a broadcast journalist for over 20 years and was based in the press gallery for 10 years. She specialises in politics, business and Auckland issues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"That\u2019s National\u2019s lowest result in that poll since November 2021, when Luxon took over as leader. The Greens&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":632048,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2246,28848,3017,806,3246,38691,26217,58140,5903,15248,4508,6721,661,3556,117,111,43,139,69,1118,6452,2954,13027,418,1886,50373],"class_list":["post-632047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-zealand","tag-2246","tag-28848","tag-ahead","tag-as","tag-both","tag-crucial","tag-edged","tag-edging","tag-election","tag-falls","tag-hits","tag-labour","tag-major","tag-national","tag-new","tag-new-zealand","tag-news","tag-newzealand","tag-nz","tag-of","tag-opportunity","tag-parties","tag-poll","tag-shows","tag-support","tag-threshold"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=632047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/632048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=632047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=632047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=632047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}