{"id":638427,"date":"2026-10-22T22:16:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/638427\/"},"modified":"2026-10-22T22:16:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:16:11","slug":"stock-takes-spacex-result-soothes-ai-jitters-sanford-out-of-favour-agms-offer-some-reassurance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/638427\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Takes: SpaceX result soothes AI jitters, Sanford out of favour, AGMs offer some reassurance"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u201cBut I think a lot of this talk [about AI] will be with us for the next little while because the numbers are just so staggeringly big.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt might be a year or two before we have complete clarity over whether the immense investment that we\u2019re seeing does indeed pay dividends,\u201d Lister said.<\/p>\n
Closer to home, shares in Australian data centre operator NextDC dropped by 40% on Wednesday after warning investors that it would miss earnings forecasts.<\/p>\n
The stock bounced back a little yesterday, trading at A$5.68 ($6.91) \u2013 up 6% on the day.<\/p>\n
NextDC announced reduced fiscal 2027 guidance of 22% to a midpoint of A$487.5 million for net revenue, 36% to a midpoint of A$255m for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda), and 14% to a midpoint of A$4750m for capex, reflecting delays to electricity network upgrades supplying its M3 site.<\/p>\n
Morningstar senior equity analyst Dan Baker said the selling was overdone because NextDC\u2019s assets, both current and planned, are still in demand.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see it as undervalued at these levels,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n
\u201cCommunity concerns over data centres may increase developer costs and force new data centres further away from built-up areas.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, this will affect all developers, will likely be factored into new contracts and will likely make existing data centres even more valuable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lodestone debut<\/p>\n
Solar power company Lodestone Energy debuted on the NZX at a 10c premium to its $2.25 issue price before easing back a touch.<\/p>\n
Going by NZX filings, Jarden \u2013 and its related parties \u2013 has about 26% of the stock.<\/p>\n
Trade Me founder Sam Morgan\u2019s JIT Hillend Investment has 12.4%.<\/p>\n
Sir Stephen Tindall\u2019s K1W1 has 6.6% and Lodestone managing director Gary Holden has 6.5%.<\/p>\n
Lodestone is the first company of any significant size to debut on the NZX in five years.<\/p>\n
The company said the offer attracted a broad mix of about 10,000 investors, with almost half of the capital raised coming from new retail investors and the remainder from institutional investors and existing shareholders.<\/p>\n
Mixed bag<\/p>\n
Craigs Investment\u2019s Lister said annual meeting commentaries so far had been solid, but highlighted a \u201cmixed bag\u201d in terms of the state of the economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are some good signs, but it\u2019s not across the board.\u201d<\/p>\n
Skellerup, at its annual meeting, has guided to 2027 net profit of $67m-$72m, implying growth of 8.3% at the midpoint on 2026.<\/p>\n
First-quarter net profit was 15% on the prior year, with demand strong across most applications, particularly in the industrial division.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are currently above the upper end of this range ($72.5m) and ahead of consensus ($72.3m),\u201d brokers Forsyth Barr said in a report.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are comfortable being above Skellerup\u2019s range given its traditional conservatism, having delivered reported net profit above the midpoint of first-time guidance in eight of the last nine years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ebos reassures<\/p>\n
Ebos group provided a reassuring update at its annual meeting, reiterating both its 2027 operating profit and its implied net profit guidance.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough no quantitative group first quarter 2027 ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) growth was provided, it did give some useful colour across its divisions,\u201d Forsyth Barr said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the positive side, branded Animal Care revenue is still growing solidly, the impact from Australian pharmacy distribution industry funding changes has been largely as expected, and there was a short extension to its NZ Chemist Warehouse contract,\u201d the broker said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOffsetting this have been higher fuel-related costs, impacting margins, and foreign exchange continuing to move adversely.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ebos\u2019 guidance and commentary continue to point to a subdued first-half 2027 result and a much stronger second half.<\/p>\n
Vulcan up<\/p>\n
Vulcan Steel reported a strong trading update at its annual shareholder meeting (ASM), with headline ebitda up 51% on the prior year.<\/p>\n
This was boosted by the acquisition of Roofing Industries, which continued to contribute strongly.<\/p>\n
Excluding roofing, underlying ebitda was still up 21%, with solid growth from both the Steel and Metals divisions.<\/p>\n
A fish out of water<\/p>\n
Shares in seafood company Sanford have fallen sharply over the last five months.<\/p>\n
This week, the stock traded at just over $6.00 from $8.15 in May.<\/p>\n
Forsyth Barr believes the decline reflects concerns about potential fishing reforms ahead of the November 7 general election.<\/p>\n
The Opportunity Party is currently in the kingmaker seat and its reform of bottom trawling is a coalition bottom line, it said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe view the potential near-term impact as modest, given the type of bottom trawling being restricted accounts for just 4% of Sanfords\u2019 wildcatch volumes, with our estimate of group revenue and net profit exposure in the low single digits.\u201d<\/p>\n
More significant fishing reform may also run into Treaty settlement complications, Forsyth Barr said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur focus remains on near-term trading, with our database updates suggesting a mixed performance in wildcatch, strong salmon trends, and ongoing challenges for mussels.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat said, Sanfords\u2019 2026 result should be supported by strong cash conversion as it sells down excess mussel stock, resulting in a further reduction in net debt.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe view the risk\u2013reward as attractive, with a 12-month forward price earnings ration of eight times \u2013 45% below the market median and 28% below its long-run average, despite the meaningful strides the business has made to improve returns.\u201d<\/p>\n
Forsyth Barr rated Sanford as \u201coutperform\u201d.<\/p>\n
The seamount-associated species (orange roughy, oreos, alfonsino, black cardinalfish, bluenose, and rubyfish) represent just 4% of Sanford\u2019s wildcatch volumes.<\/p>\n
\u201cOf greater concern would be restrictions extending to higher-value scampi, typically caught on flat, muddy seabeds rather than seamounts,\u201d Forsyth Barr said.<\/p>\n
The party\u2019s proposal does not explicitly prohibit fishing across all such grounds, although its wider restrictions on vulnerable seabed habitats leave the potential exposure uncertain.<\/p>\n
Treaty settlement obligations add complexity to implementation of large-scale fishing reform, it said.<\/p>\n
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.<\/p>\n