Luxon\u2019s party drops three points to 29% in this poll, however its current coalition partners moved up – ACT up one to a term high of 12%, and NZ First up two to 10%. <\/p>\n
Opportunity, which National has ruled out working with, dropped one to 6%.<\/p>\n
Crunch time: New 1News Verian poll reveals two paths to power – Watch on TVNZ+<\/a><\/p>\n National has dropped back from last week but Labour has failed to gain. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Labour was unchanged on 27% despite a week of damaging headlines on gangs, including the resignation of its T\u0101maki Makaurau candidate<\/a>. The result marks five polls in a row stuck in the upper-20s for Chris Hipkins\u2019 party, which was as high as 37% in April<\/a>. <\/p>\n The Greens, whose candidates were at the centre of the gang-meeting controversy alongside Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s, slipped one point to 15%. <\/p>\n Luxon also pulled clear of Hipkins as preferred prime minister, rising four points to 24%. <\/p>\n The Labour leader edged up one point to 18%. <\/p>\n (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Luxon brushed off National\u2019s drop, speaking to 1News today. \u201cThe only poll that matters is November 7th, and the message is very simple to New Zealanders – don\u2019t put it at risk.”<\/p>\n Coalition maths gets complicated<\/p>\n On these figures, the right coalition bloc has 61 seats, which could be sufficient to govern depending on the outcome in M\u0101ori electorates. If Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori falls to one seat, Parliament would be composed of 121 MPs, making 61 enough.<\/p>\n But, under another seat calculation, if Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori holds four seats and Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi keeps her seat, the total in Parliament goes to 125 MPs. <\/p>\n The right bloc coalition would then be two short of the 63 needed, and Opportunity\u2019s eight MPs would again hold the balance of power as with previous polls this campaign.<\/p>\n National\u2019s own low support causes further complexity because it could win more electorates than its party vote entitles it to, again leading to extra seats in Parliament.<\/p>\n ACT\u2019s received their strongest result in a long time. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n On today\u2019s poll, National earns 34 seats, but it won 44 electorates at the last election, and any electorate it wins beyond 34 is a bonus seat \u2013 part of the overhang. <\/p>\n ACT leader David Seymour put his party\u2019s term-high result down to its policies. \u201cWe\u2019ve laid out positive, practical solutions, and we\u2019re grateful for the support,\u201d he told 1News.<\/p>\n NZ First leader Winston Peters, whose party recorded the biggest week-to-week rise of any in the poll, dismissed the result. \u201cWe don\u2019t believe in these polls. We pack halls all round this country, day in, day out, and those are the major polls for us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n This scenario assumes Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori retains four seats. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n What’s Labour\u2019s position?<\/p>\n Hipkins told 1News the gangs controversy had not cut through with voters. \u201cIt\u2019s not something that\u2019s coming through at all in the conversations we\u2019re having with voters.”<\/p>\n He also hinted at messaging that the polls wouldn’t reflect the situation on the ground.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is going to be a very close election. That\u2019s been clear for some time now, and it\u2019s all going to come down to turnout,” Hipkins said.<\/p>\n “The groundswell of support that we are seeing on the ground suggests that we’re going to pick up a number of seats from the National Party. <\/p>\n “It suggests that our party vote is going to be higher than what the polls are indicating. We’re going to be campaigning hard for the next 11 days to make sure that happens.”<\/p>\n This scenario assumes Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori retains only one seat. (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Labour campaign chairperson Kieran McAnulty had predicted in response to last week’s 1News poll that today’s results would show \u201ca correction\u201d. National did fall back from 32%, but McAnulty’s party gained none of that support \u2013 remaining stubbornly stuck on 27%.<\/p>\n The coalition maths complexity continues here, with Labour\u2019s only path to power depending on both Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s electorates and Opportunity.<\/p>\n In one scenario, Labour, the Greens, Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori and Kapa-Kingi would hold 56 seats in a 125-seat Parliament. With Opportunity\u2019s eight MPs, that would reach 64, one more than the 63 needed to govern.<\/p>\n In the second scenario, if Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori falls to one seat, the left bloc drops to 52 in a 121-seat Parliament. Opportunity\u2019s support would then take it to only 60.<\/p>\n Te P\u0101ti M\u0101ori\u2019s party vote fell to 0.1% in the latest poll.<\/p>\n Luxon pulls ahead as preferred leader<\/p>\n Among the party leaders in the preferred prime minister stakes, Luxon again goes up this week \u2013 rising four points to 24%. Labour\u2019s Hipkins is up one point to 18%.<\/p>\n (Source: 1News)<\/p>\n Luxon\u2019s 24% as preferred prime minister is his best result of the campaign, with him and Hipkins tied on 20% only two weeks ago. The six-point gap between the two is notably the widest in 1News’ polling this year. In April, Hipkins led Luxon 19% to 16%.<\/p>\n The Labour leader told 1News he read nothing into the widening gap.<\/p>\n Winston Peters was on 7%, down one point, and Greens co-leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick held steady on 7%. David Seymour rose one point to 6%, and Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong slipped one point to 1%.<\/p>\n Wong said the party was confident of clearing the 5% threshold. <\/p>\n \u201cOur average is well over the 5%,\u201d she said. “The big question is how many of our amazing MPs we’ll be able to have representating Opportunity in Parliament.”<\/p>\n Fewer voters were also undecided on who should lead the country. The share who did not know who they wanted as prime minister fell to 24%, down from 36% in August.<\/p>\n But those same voters were less settled on who they would be giving their party vote to. <\/p>\n Some 11% were undecided or refused to say which party they would vote for, up one point from last week. That figure has stayed between 10% and 14% since June.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1news-verian-poll-27-october-party-vote-DTZVPD42VVDEFOVG4TO5KJ5I6Q.png\")
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